John M. Lyman

Robust warming of the global upper ocean.

A large (∼1023 J) multi-decadal globally averaged warming signal in the upper 300 m of the world’s oceans was reported roughly a decade ago and is attributed to warming associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The majority of the Earth’s total energy uptake during recent decades has occurred in the upper ocean, but the underlying uncertainties in ocean warming are unclear, limiting our ability to assess closure of sea-level budgets, the global radiation imbalance and climate models. For example, several teams have recently produced different multi-year estimates of the annually averaged global integral of upper-ocean heat content anomalies (hereafter OHCA curves) or, equivalently, the thermosteric sea-level rise. Patterns of interannual variability, in particular, differ among methods. Here we examine several sources of uncertainty that contribute to differences among OHCA curves from 1993 to 2008, focusing on the difficulties of correcting biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. XBT data constitute the majority of the in situ measurements of upper-ocean heat content from 1967 to 2002, and we find that the uncertainty due to choice of XBT bias correction dominates among-method variability in OHCA curves during our 1993–2008 study period. Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, a composite of several OHCA curves using different XBT bias corrections still yields a statistically significant linear warming trend for 1993–2008 of 0.64 W m-2 (calculated for the Earth’s entire surface area), with a 90-per-cent confidence interval of 0.53–0.75 W m-2.

Recent cooling of the upper ocean

We observe a net loss of 3.2 (± 1.1) × 10 22 J of heat from the upper ocean between 2003 and 2005. Using a broad array of in situ ocean measurements, we present annual estimates of global upper-ocean heat content anomaly from 1993 through 2005. Including the recent downturn, the average warming rate for the entire 13-year period is 0.33 ± 0.23 W/m 2 (of the Earths total surface area). A new estimate of sampling error in the heat content record suggests that both the recent and previous global cooling events are significant and unlikely to be artifacts of inadequate ocean sampling.

Estimating Annual Global Upper-Ocean Heat Content Anomalies despite Irregular In Situ Ocean Sampling*

The effects of irregular in situ ocean sampling on estimates of annual globally integrated upper ocean heat content anomalies (OHCA) are investigated for sampling patterns from 1955 to 2006. An analytical method is presented for computing the effective area covered by an objective map for any given in situ sampling distribution. To evaluate the method, appropriately scaled sea surface height (SSH) anomaly maps from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) are used as a proxy for OHCA from 1993 to 2006. Use of these proxy data demonstrates that the simple area integral (SI) of such an objective map for sparse datasets does not agree as well with the actual integral as the weighted integral (WI), defined as the simple integral weighted by the ratio of the total area over the “observed” area. From 1955 to 1966, in situ ocean sampling is inadequate to estimate accurately annual global integrals of the proxy upper OHCA. During this period, the SI for the sampling pattern of any given year underestimates the 13-yr trend in proxy OHCA from 1993 to 2006 by around 70%, and confidence limits for the WI are often very large. From 1967 to 2003 there appear to be sufficient data to estimate annual global integrals. Limited by the constraints of this analysis, the SI for any given year’s sampling pattern still underestimates the 1993– 2006 13-yr trend in the proxy by around 30%, but the WI matches the trend well with small confidence limits. For 2004 through 2006 in situ sampling, with near-global in situ Argo data coverage, the 1993–2006 13-yr trend in the proxy is equally well represented by the SI or WI.

Distinct 17- and 33-Day Tropical Instability Waves in Subsurface Observations*

Abstract Tropical instability waves (TIWs) within a half-degree of the equator in the Pacific Ocean have been consistently observed in meridional velocity with periods of around 20 days. On the other hand, near 5°N, TIWs have been observed in sea surface height (SSH), thermocline depth, and velocity to have periods near 30 days. Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Project moored equatorial velocity and temperature time series are used to investigate the spatial and temporal structure of TIWs during 3 years of La Nina conditions from 1998 through 2001. Along 140°W, where the TIW temperature and velocity variabilities are at their maxima, these variabilities include two distinct TIWs with periods of 17 and 33 days, rather than one broadbanded process. As predicted by modeling studies, the 17-day TIW variability is shown to occur not only in meridional velocity at the equator, but also in subsurface temperature at 2°N and 2°S, while the 33-day TIW variability is observed primarily in subsurface temperature at 5°...

Correction to ''Recent cooling of the upper ocean''

The recent cooling signal in the upper ocean reported by Lyman et al. [2006] is shown to be an artifact that was caused by a large cold bias discovered in a small fraction of Argo floats as well as a smaller but more prevalent warm bias in eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) data. These biases are both substantially larger than sampling errors estimated in Lyman et al. [2006].

In Situ Data Biases and Recent Ocean Heat Content Variability

Abstract Two significant instrument biases have been identified in the in situ profile data used to estimate globally integrated upper-ocean heat content. A large cold bias was discovered in a small fraction of Argo floats along with a smaller but more prevalent warm bias in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data. These biases appear to have caused the bulk of the upper-ocean cooling signal reported by Lyman et al. between 2003 and 2005. These systematic data errors are significantly larger than sampling errors in recent years and are the dominant sources of error in recent estimates of globally integrated upper-ocean heat content variability. The bias in the XBT data is found to be consistent with errors in the fall-rate equations, suggesting a physical explanation for that bias. With biased profiles discarded, no significant warming or cooling is observed in upper-ocean heat content between 2003 and 2006.

Estimating Global Ocean Heat Content Changes in the Upper 1800 m since 1950 and the Influence of Climatology Choice

AbstractOcean heat content anomalies are analyzed from 1950 to 2011 in five distinct depth layers (0–100, 100–300, 300–700, 700–900, and 900–1800 m). These layers correspond to historic increases in common maximum sampling depths of ocean temperature measurements with time, as different instruments—mechanical bathythermograph (MBT), shallow expendable bathythermograph (XBT), deep XBT, early sometimes shallower Argo profiling floats, and recent Argo floats capable of worldwide sampling to 2000 m—have come into widespread use. This vertical separation of maps allows computation of annual ocean heat content anomalies and their sampling uncertainties back to 1950 while taking account of in situ sampling advances and changing sampling patterns. The 0–100-m layer is measured over 50% of the globe annually starting in 1956, the 100–300-m layer starting in 1967, the 300–700-m layer starting in 1983, and the deepest two layers considered here starting in 2003 and 2004, during the implementation of Argo. Furthermor...

Relative contributions of temperature and salinity to seasonal mixed layer density changes and horizontal density gradients

Temperature and salinity both contribute to ocean density, including its seasonal cycle and spatial patterns in the mixed layer. Temperature and salinity profiles from the Argo Program allow construction and analysis of a global, monthly, mixed layer climatology. Temperature changes dominate the seasonal cycle of mixed layer density in most regions, but salinity changes are dominant in the tropical warm pools, Arctic, and Antarctic. Under the Intertropical Convergence Zone, temperature and salinity work in concert to increase seasonal stratification, but the seasonal density changes there are weak because the temperature and salinity changes are small. In the eastern subtropics, seasonal salinity changes partly compensate those in temperature and reduce seasonal mixed layer density changes. Besides a hemispheric seasonal reversal, the times of maximum and minimum mixed layer density exhibit regional variations. For instance, the equatorial region is more closely aligned with Southern Hemisphere timing, and much of the North Indian Ocean has a minimum density in May and June. Outside of the tropics, the maximum mixed layer density occurs later in the winter toward the poles, and the minimum earlier in the summer. Finally, at the times of maximum mixed layer density, some of the ocean has horizontal temperature and salinity gradients that work against each other to reduce the horizontal density gradient. However, on the equatorial sides of the subtropical salinity maxima, temperature and salinity gradients reinforce each other, increasing the density gradients there. Density gradients are generally stronger where either salinity or temperature gradients are dominant influences.

Informing Deep Argo Array Design Using Argo and Full-Depth Hydrographic Section Data*

AbstractData from full-depth closely sampled hydrographic sections and Argo floats are analyzed to inform the design of a future Deep Argo array. Here standard errors of local decadal temperature trends and global decadal trends of ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level anomalies integrated from 2000 to 6000 dbar are estimated for a hypothetical 5° latitude × 5° longitude × 15-day cycle Deep Argo array. These estimates are made using temperature variances from closely spaced full-depth CTD profiles taken during hydrographic sections. The temperature data along each section are high passed laterally at a 500-km scale, and the resulting variances are averaged in 5° × 5° bins to assess temperature noise levels as a function of pressure and geographic location. A mean global decorrelation time scale of 62 days is estimated using temperature time series at 1800 dbar from Argo floats. The hypothetical Deep Argo array would be capable of resolving, at one standard error, local trends from <1 m °C decade−1...

Sensitivity of Global Upper-Ocean Heat Content Estimates to Mapping Methods, XBT Bias Corrections, and Baseline Climatologies*

AbstractOcean warming accounts for the majority of the earth’s recent energy imbalance. Historic ocean heat content (OHC) changes are important for understanding changing climate. Calculations of OHC anomalies (OHCA) from in situ measurements provide estimates of these changes. Uncertainties in OHCA estimates arise from calculating global fields from temporally and spatially irregular data (mapping method), instrument bias corrections, and the definitions of a baseline climatology from which anomalies are calculated. To investigate sensitivity of OHCA estimates for the upper 700 m to these different factors, the same quality-controlled dataset is used by seven groups and comparisons are made. Two time periods (1970–2008 and 1993–2008) are examined. Uncertainty due to the mapping method is 16.5 ZJ for 1970–2008 and 17.1 ZJ for 1993–2008 (1 ZJ = 1 × 1021 J). Uncertainty due to instrument bias correction varied from 8.0 to 17.9 ZJ for 1970–2008 and from 10.9 to 22.4 ZJ for 1993–2008, depending on mapping met...