Joshua E. Greene

Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis

The effects of several policy and other macroeconomic variables on the ratio of private investment to gross domestic product in developing countries during 1975-87 is analyzed. Econometric evidence indicates that the rate of private investment is positively related to real GDP growth, level of per capita GDP, and the rate of public sector investment, and negatively related to real interest rates, domestic inflation, the debt-service ratio, and the ratio of debt to GDP. The impact of most variables was greatest before the 1982 debt crisis, but the ratio of debt to GDP has since become more important.

The External Debt Problem of Sub-Saharan Africa

The massive external debt burden of sub-Saharan Africa has gained widespread attention as a serious policy issue during the past few years. This paper reviews recent trends in the debt levels and economic performance of sub-Saharan countries and assesses a number of proposals for reducing their external debt service obligations. There is also a discussion of the modalities of various debt relief proposals that have been advanced.

Monetary Growth and Exchange Rate Depreciation as Causes of Inflation in African Countries: An Empirical Analysis

This paper examines the relative importance of monetary growth and exchange rate depreciation as causes of inflation in a sample of 10 Sub-Saharan African countries, using quarterly data from 1978 through 1989. Causality tests and impulse response functions derived from vector autoregression (VAR) analysis suggest that both monetary expansion and exchange rate adjustments cause inflation in a number of these countries. However, the failure of the tests to attribute the bulk of the variance in inflation in most of the countries to either variable suggests either a problem with the statistical technique or that some other factor - perhaps structural bottlenecks or a measure of overall macroeconomic policy stance incorporating both monetary and exchange rate policy - may be even more important as a determinant of inflation in African countries.

The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U. S. Balance of Payments

Real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciation appear cointegrated with the current and financial accounts of the U.S. balance of payments. On this basis, we estimate reduced form equations showing that expected changes and shocks to real GDP, the REER, energy prices, and growth in emerging market economies and other industrial countries explain much of the short-term variation in the U.S. current account balance, with the balance worsening as real GDP, energy prices, and the REER increase. In addition, foreign direct investment rises with real growth, while stock market prices affect the composition of capital inflows.

The Output Decline in Asian Crisis Countries: Investment Aspects

This paper examines whether capital outflows may have contributed to output declines during the Asian Crisis by reducing the financing available for domestic investment. Panel data regressions suggest a positive, short-term relationship between net capital inflows and investment during the period before 1997 in five Asian countries once real net capital flows are netted out from real flows of private bank credit. In addition, net real private inflows and real private investment appear to have been cointegrated in at least three of these countries, suggesting a long-term relationship as well.

Is Africa different

Abstract Africas macroeconomic response to external shocks was significantly differrent from that of other developing countries during 1976–1986. Nonparametric tests that correct for differing initial conditions indicate significantly lower economic growth in African economies. Average inflation was also significantly lower, while current-account deficits were larger. Economic policies in African countries are characterized by significantly larger budget deficits and government current expenditure as a share of gross domestic product and by greater inward orientation. African economies in the CFA Franc Zones are distinguished by relatively lower inflation, budget deficits, and less reduction in investment/GNP ratios.

The Impact of Cyclical Factorson the U.S. Balance of Payments

Real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciation appear cointegrated with the current and financial accounts of the U.S. balance of payments. On this basis, we estimate reduced form equations showing that expected changes and shocks to real GDP, the REER, energy prices, and growth in emerging market economies and other industrial countries explain much of the short-term variation in the U.S. current account balance, with the balance worsening as real GDP, energy prices, and the REER increase. In addition, foreign direct investment rises with real growth, while stock market prices affect the composition of capital inflows.

The Sub-Saharan African Debt Problem; An Update

This paper provides updated information on the external debt problem of sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1980 and 1990 the region’s external debt more than tripled, to US

The African debt crisis

171 billion, while debt service payments and rescheduling rose by more than 150 percent to US

Inflation in African Countries: General Issues and Effect on the Financial Sector

20 billion. In addition, the region continues to qualify as severely debt-distressed. During the last few years the region has benefitted from several new debt initiatives, including a substantial increase in debt cancellation by bilateral creditors and the general application of Toronto terms for debt rescheduling. There are also proposals for further debt assistance, including more liberal rescheduling terms, broader debt forgiveness, and consolidating debt relief and aid generation activities.