Joshua Elliott

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

Significance Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

The parallel system for integrating impact models and sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility. Open-source framework for efficient massively parallel climate impact simulations.Enables analysis of dozens of crop and tree species with DSSAT, APSIM, and CenW.Multi-model multi-scale assessment of maize yield in Africa using DSSAT and APSIM.High-resolution climate impact assessment of New Zealand forest productivity.Computational scaling behavior of the framework to assess the efficiency gain attained.

Machine learning algorithms for modeling groundwater level changes in agricultural regions of the U.S.

Climate, groundwater extraction, and surface water flows have complex nonlinear relationships with groundwater level in agricultural regions. To better understand the relative importance of each driver and predict groundwater level change, we develop a new ensemble modeling framework based on spectral analysis, machine learning, and uncertainty analysis, as an alternative to complex and computationally expensive physical models. We apply and evaluate this new approach in the context of two aquifer systems supporting agricultural production in the United States: the High Plains aquifer (HPA) and the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA). We select input data sets by using a combination of mutual information, genetic algorithms, and lag analysis, and then use the selected data sets in a Multilayer Perceptron network architecture to simulate seasonal groundwater level change. As expected, model results suggest that irrigation demand has the highest influence on groundwater level change for a majority of the wells. The subset of groundwater observations not used in model training or cross-validation correlates strongly (R > 0.8) with model results for 88 and 83% of the wells in the HPA and MRVA, respectively. In both aquifer systems, the error in the modeled cumulative groundwater level change during testing (2003–2012) was less than 2 m over a majority of the area. We conclude that our modeling framework can serve as an alternative approach to simulating groundwater level change and water availability, especially in regions where subsurface properties are unknown.

CIM-EARTH: Framework and Case Study

Abstract General equilibrium models have been used for decades to obtain insights into the economic implications of policies and decisions. Despite successes, however, these economic models have substantive limitations. Many of these limitations are due to computational and methodological constraints that can be overcome by leveraging recent advances in computer architecture, numerical methods, and economics research. Motivated by these considerations, we are developing a new modeling framework: the Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind (CIM-EARTH). In this paper, we describe the key features of the CIM-EARTH framework and initial implementation, detail the model instance we use for studying the impacts of a carbon tax on international trade and the sensitivity of these impacts to assumptions on the rate of change in energy efficiency and labor productivity, and present results on the extent to which carbon leakage limits global reductions in emissions for some policy scenarios.

ISIMIP2a Simulation Data from Agricultural Sector

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) provides a framework for the collation of a set of consistent, multi-sector, multi-scale climate-impact simulations, based on scientifically and politically-relevant historical and future scenarios. This framework serves as a basis for robust projections of climate impacts, as well as facilitating model evaluation and improvement, allowing for improved estimates of the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming. It also provides a unique opportunity to consider interactions between climate change impacts across sectors. ISIMIP2a is the second ISIMIP simulation round, focusing on historical simulations (1971-2010) of climate impacts on agriculture, fisheries, permafrost, biomes, regional and global water and forests. This will serve as a basis for model evaluation and improvement, allowing for improved estimates of the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming. The focus topic for ISIMIP2a is model evaluation and validation, in particular with respect to the representation of impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability. During this phase, four common global observational climate data sets were provided across all impact models and sectors. In addition, appropriate observational data sets of impacts for each sector were collected, against which the models can be benchmarked. Access to the input data for the impact models is provided through a central ISIMIP archive (see https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/#input-data-bias-correction). This entry refers to the ISIMIP2a simulation data from Agricultural Sector models: CGMS-WOFOST, CLM-Crop, EPIC-Boku, EPIC-IIASA, EPIC-TAMU, GEPIC, LPJ-GUESS, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE-CROP, pAPSIM, pDSSAT, PEGASUS, PEPIC, PRYSBI2.