Joshua Pink

Dabigatran etexilate versus warfarin in management of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in UK context: quantitative benefit-harm and economic analyses

Objectives To determine the incremental net health benefits of dabigatran etexilate 110 mg and 150 mg twice daily and warfarin in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and to estimate the cost effectiveness of dabigatran in the United Kingdom. Design Quantitative benefit-harm and economic analyses using a discrete event simulation model to extrapolate the findings of the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy) study to a lifetime horizon. Setting UK National Health Service. Population Cohorts of 50 000 simulated patients at moderate to high risk of stroke with a mean baseline CHADS2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischaemic attack) score of 2.1. Main outcome measures Quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and incremental cost per QALY of dabigatran compared with warfarin. Results Compared with warfarin, low dose and high dose dabigatran were associated with positive incremental net benefits of 0.094 (95% central range −0.083 to 0.267) and 0.146 (−0.029 to 0.322) QALYs. Positive incremental net benefits resulted for high dose dabigatran in 94% of simulations versus warfarin and in 76% of those versus low dose dabigatran. In the economic analysis, high dose dabigatran dominated the low dose, had an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £23 082 (€26 700;

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetics-guided warfarin therapy vs. alternative anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation.

35 800) per QALY gained versus warfarin, and was more cost effective in patients with a baseline CHADS2 score of 3 or above. However, at centres that achieved good control of international normalised ratio, such as those in the UK, dabigatran 150 mg was not cost effective, at £42 386 per QALY gained. Conclusions This analysis supports regulatory decisions that dabigatran offers a positive benefit to harm ratio when compared with warfarin. However, no subgroup for which dabigatran 110 mg offered any clinical or economic advantage over 150 mg was identified. High dose dabigatran will be cost effective only forpatients at increased risk of stroke or for whom international normalised ratio is likely to be less well controlled.

Comparative Effectiveness of Dabigatran, Rivaroxaban, Apixaban, and Warfarin in the Management of Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

Pharmacogenetics‐guided warfarin dosing is an alternative to standard clinical algorithms and new oral anticoagulants for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. However, clinical evidence for pharmacogenetics‐guided warfarin dosing is limited to intermediary outcomes, and consequently, there is a lack of information on the cost‐effectiveness of anticoagulation treatment options. A clinical trial simulation of S‐warfarin was used to predict times within therapeutic range for different dosing algorithms. Relative risks of clinical events, obtained from a meta‐analysis of trials linking times within therapeutic range with outcomes, served as inputs to an economic analysis. Neither dabigatran nor rivaroxaban were cost‐effective options. Along the cost‐effectiveness frontier, in relation to clinically dosed warfarin, pharmacogenetics‐guided warfarin and apixaban had incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios of £13,226 and £20,671 per quality‐adjusted life year gained, respectively. On the basis of our simulations, apixaban appears to be the most cost‐effective treatment.

Accurate diagnosis of latent tuberculosis in children, people who are immunocompromised or at risk from immunosuppression and recent arrivals from countries with a high incidence of tuberculosis: systematic review and economic evaluation

Alternative anticoagulants to warfarin (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban) are becoming available for the prevention of thromboembolic stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF), but there is a lack of information on their comparative effectiveness. Using a discrete event simulation method adopting a lifetime horizon of analysis, we made an indirect comparison of the RE‐LY, ROCKET‐AF, and ARISTOTLE trial results for AF patients in the US population. Over a lifetime, apixaban, dabigatran, and rivaroxaban accrued 0.130 (95% central range (CR) −0.030 to 0.264), 0.106 (95% CR −0.048 to 0.248), and 0.095 (95% CR −0.052 to 0.242) more quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs), respectively, than warfarin, with apixaban having a 55% probability of accruing the highest total QALYs. In the absence of a definitive trial, and acknowledging the limitations of an indirect comparison, the available evidence suggests apixaban to be the most effective anticoagulant.

First steps: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness of the Group Family Nurse Partnership (gFNP) program compared to routine care in improving outcomes for high-risk mothers and their children and preventing abuse

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) [(Zopf 1883) Lehmann and Neumann 1896], is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Nearly one-third of the worlds population is infected with MTB; TB has an annual incidence of 9 million new cases and each year causes 2 million deaths worldwide. OBJECTIVES To investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening tests [interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and tuberculin skin tests (TSTs)] in latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) diagnosis to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development for three population groups: children, immunocompromised people and those who have recently arrived in the UK from high-incidence countries. All of these groups are at higher risk of progression from LTBI to active TB. DATA SOURCES Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and Current Controlled Trials were searched from December 2009 up to December 2014. REVIEW METHODS English-language studies evaluating the comparative effectiveness of commercially available tests used for identifying LTBI in children, immunocompromised people and recent arrivals to the UK were eligible. Interventions were IGRAs [QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold (QFT-G), QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold-In-Tube (QFT-GIT) (Cellestis/Qiagen, Carnegie, VA, Australia) and T-SPOT.TB (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK)]. The comparator was TST 5 mm or 10 mm alone or with an IGRA. Two independent reviewers screened all identified records and undertook a quality assessment and data synthesis. A de novo model, structured in two stages, was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies. RESULTS In total, 6687 records were screened, of which 53 unique studies were included (a further 37 studies were identified from a previous NICE guideline). The majority of the included studies compared the strength of association for the QFT-GIT/G IGRA with the TST (5 mm or 10 mm) in relation to the incidence of active TB or previous TB exposure. Ten studies reported evidence on decision-analytic models to determine the cost-effectiveness of IGRAs compared with the TST for LTBI diagnosis. In children, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £18,900 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In immunocompromised people, QFT-GIT negative followed by the TST (≥ 5 mm) was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of approximately £18,700 per QALY gained. In those recently arrived from high TB incidence countries, the TST (≥ 5 mm) alone was less costly and more effective than TST (≥ 5 mm) positive followed by QFT-GIT or T-SPOT.TB or QFT-GIT alone. LIMITATIONS The limitations and scarcity of the evidence, variation in the exposure-based definitions of LTBI and heterogeneity in IGRA performance relative to TST limit the applicability of the review findings. CONCLUSIONS Given the current evidence, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT for children, QFT-GIT negative followed by TST (≥ 5 mm) for the immunocompromised population and TST (≥ 5 mm) for recent arrivals were the most cost-effective strategies for diagnosing LTBI that progresses to active TB. These results should be interpreted with caution given the limitations identified. The evidence available is limited and more high-quality research in this area is needed including studies on the inconsistent performance of tests in high-compared with low-incidence TB settings; the prospective assessment of progression to active TB for those at high risk; the relative benefits of two-compared with one-step testing with different tests; and improved classification of people at high and low risk for LTBI. STUDY REGISTRATION This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014009033. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Mechanism-Based Approach to the Economic Evaluation of Pharmaceuticals: Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic/Pharmacoeconomic Analysis of Rituximab for Follicular Lymphoma

BackgroundEvidence from the USA suggests that the home-based Family Nurse Partnership program (FNP), extending from early pregnancy until infants are 24 months, can reduce the risk of child abuse and neglect throughout childhood. FNP is now widely available in the UK. A new variant, Group Family Nurse Partnership (gFNP) offers similar content but in a group context and for a shorter time, until infants are 12 months old. Each group comprises 8 to 12 women with similar expected delivery dates and their partners. Its implementation has been established but there is no evidence of its effectiveness.Methods/DesignThe study comprises a multi-site randomized controlled trial designed to identify the benefits of gFNP compared to standard care. Participants (not eligible for FNP) must be either aged < 20 years at their last menstrual period (LMP) with one or more previous live births, or aged 20 to 24 at LMP with low educational qualifications and no previous live births. ‘Low educational qualifications’ is defined as not having both Maths and English Language GCSE at grade C or higher or, if they have both, no more than four in total at grade C or higher. Exclusions are: under 20 years and previously received home-based FNP and, in either age group, severe psychotic mental illness or not able to communicate in English. Consenting women are randomly allocated (minimized by site and maternal age group) when between 10 and 16 weeks pregnant to either to the 44 session gFNP program or to standard care after the collection of baseline information. Researchers are blind to group assignment.The primary outcomes at 12 months are child abuse potential based on the revised Adult-Adolescent Parenting Inventory and parent/infant interaction coded using the CARE Index based on a video-taped interaction. Secondary outcomes are maternal depression, parenting stress, health related quality of life, social support, and use of services.DiscussionThis is the first study of the effectiveness of gFNP in the UK. Results should inform decision-making about its delivery alongside universal services, potentially enabling a wider range of families to benefit from the FNP curriculum and approach to supporting parenting.Trial registrationISRCTN78814904.

Cost Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination: A Systematic Review of Modelling Approaches

AbstractBackground and Objectives: Economic value is an important consideration during all phases of the drug development process. We previously published an article in PharmacoEconomics in which we described a mechanism-based economic modelling approach that incorporates data obtained during phase II clinical studies on the relationships between dose, exposure and response. We now describe case studies of rituximab for the treatment of follicular non- Hodgkin’s lymphoma based on this methodology. Methods: We utilized a population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model linking serum rituximab concentration to progression-free survival, to simulate the effectiveness of rituximab in various clinical contexts. These served as inputs to economic models of follicular lymphoma, based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) appraisals, to assess the cost effectiveness of rituximab. Our results were compared with trial-based estimates from the NICE appraisals. In a further analysis, we simulated the results of an ongoing trial to generate predictions of cost effectiveness Results: Our analyses suggest an acceptable degree of concordance between simulation- and trial-based estimates of cost effectiveness. For first-line and maintenance therapy, deviations of £2099 and £1355 per QALY, respectively, from trial-based incremental cost-effectiveness ratio estimates of £8290 and £7721 per QALY gained would not affect reimbursement decisions. The probability of rituximab-containing regimens being cost effective at £20000 and £30000 per QALY thresholds was 1 for both first-line and maintenance therapy in both simulated and trial-based analyses. Conclusions: Our analyses demonstrate the feasibility of mechanism-based economic analyses, which may have applications during drug development to the following: (i) directing future research based on the cost of reducing uncertainty; (ii) assessing subgroups, dosing schedules and protocol deviations; and (iii) informing strategic research and development and pricing decisions.

Comparing Generic and Condition-Specific Preference-Based Measures in Epilepsy: EQ-5D-3L and NEWQOL-6D

BackgroundA large number of economic evaluations have been published that assess alternative possible human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Understanding differences in the modelling methodologies used in these studies is important to assess the accuracy, comparability and generalisability of their results.ObjectivesThe aim of this review was to identify published economic models of HPV vaccination programmes and understand how characteristics of these studies vary by geographical area, date of publication and the policy question being addressed.MethodsWe performed literature searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Econlit, The Health Economic Evaluations Database (HEED) and The National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). From the 1189 unique studies retrieved, 65 studies were included for data extraction based on a priori eligibility criteria. Two authors independently reviewed these articles to determine eligibility for the final review. Data were extracted from the selected studies, focussing on six key structural or methodological themes covering different aspects of the model(s) used that may influence cost-effectiveness results.ResultsMore recently published studies tend to model a larger number of HPV strains, and include a larger number of HPV-associated diseases. Studies published in Europe and North America also tend to include a larger number of diseases and are more likely to incorporate the impact of herd immunity and to use more realistic assumptions around vaccine efficacy and coverage. Studies based on previous models often do not include sufficiently robust justifications as to the applicability of the adapted model to the new context.ConclusionsThe considerable between-study heterogeneity in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes makes comparisons between studies difficult, as observed differences in cost effectiveness may be driven by differences in methodology as well as by variations in funding and delivery models and estimates of model parameters. Studies should consistently report not only all simplifying assumptions made but also the estimated impact of these assumptions on the cost-effectiveness results.

Economic and Health-Related Quality of Life Outcomes of Whiplash Associated Disorders.

BACKGROUND There is debate about the psychometric characteristics of the three-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L) for use in epilepsy. In response to the concerns, an epilepsy-specific preference-based measure (NEWQOL-6D) was developed. The psychometric characteristics of the NEWQOL-6D, however, have not been assessed. OBJECTIVES To investigate the validity and responsiveness of the EQ-5D-3L and the Quality of Life in Newly Diagnosed Epilepsy Instrument-six dimensions (NEWQOL-6D) for use in the assessment of treatments for newly diagnosed focal epilepsy. METHODS The analysis used data from the Standard And New Antiepileptic Drugs trial including patients with focal epilepsy. We assessed convergent validity using correlations, and known-group validity across different epilepsy and general health severity indicators using analysis of variance and effect sizes. The responsiveness of the measures to change over time was assessed using standardized response means. We also assessed agreement between the measures. RESULTS There was some level of convergence and agreement between the measures in terms of utility score but divergence in the concepts measured by the descriptive systems. Both instruments displayed known-group validity, with significant differences between severity groups, and generally slightly larger effect sizes for the NEWQOL-6D across the epilepsy-specific indicators. Evidence for responsiveness was less clear, with small to moderate standardized response means demonstrating different levels of change across different indicators. CONCLUSIONS There was an overall tendency for the NEWQOL-6D to better reflect differences across groups, but this does not translate into large absolute utility differences. Both the EQ-5D-3L and the NEWQOL-6D show some evidence of validity for providing utility values for economic evaluations in newly diagnosed focal epilepsy.

Parkinson’s disease: summary of updated NICE guidance

Study Design. This study examines the links between severity of whiplash associated disorder and costs and health outcomes. Objective. The study aims to estimate the economic costs and health-state utilities associated with disability levels and recovery trajectories after acute whiplash injury. Summary of Background Data. Data used were from the Managing Injuries of the Neck Trial, which collected information on 3851 people over a 12-month period after acute whiplash injury. Methods. Effects of whiplash associated disorder severity on economic costs (measured from a societal perspective and separately from a health and personal social services perspective) were estimated using two-part regression models, comprising probability of incurring a cost and the total cost, given one was incurred. Effects on health-state utilities (measured using the EQ-5D and SF-6D) were estimated using ordinary least squares regression, and two-part models as for costs. Results. There was a direct relationship between severity of disability after acute whiplash injury and economic costs. Between baseline and 4 months, average societal costs for those with no disability were £99.55 (UK£, 2009 prices), increasing to £668.53 for those with complete disability. Average societal costs for the whole sample were £234.15 over the first 4 months, decreasing to £127.51 between 8 and 12 months. Conversely, utility scores decreased with increased disability. The average EQ-5D utility score was 0.934 at 4 months for those with no disability, decreasing to 0.033 for those with complete disability. The average EQ-5D utility score for the whole sample increased from 0.587 immediately post-injury to 0.817 at 12 months. Relative costs and disutilities generated by the multivariate models are also presented by disability level and recovery trajectory. Conclusion. These results provide estimates of the costs and health-state utilities associated with disability levels and recovery trajectories after acute whiplash injury. They can be used to inform estimates of the cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting whiplash-associated disorders. Level of Evidence: 3