Jotam G. Pasipanodya

Serum Drug Concentrations Predictive of Pulmonary Tuberculosis Outcomes

BACKGROUND Based on a hollow-fiber system model of tuberculosis, we hypothesize that microbiologic failure and acquired drug resistance are primarily driven by low drug concentrations that result from pharmacokinetic variability. METHODS Clinical and pharmacokinetic data were prospectively collected from 142 tuberculosis patients in Western Cape, South Africa. Compartmental pharmacokinetic parameters of isoniazid, rifampin, and pyrazinamide were identified for each patient. Patients were then followed for up to 2 years. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to identify and rank clinical predictors of poor long-term outcome such as microbiologic failure or death, or relapse. RESULTS Drug concentrations and pharmacokinetics varied widely between patients. Poor long-term outcomes were encountered in 35 (25%) patients. The 3 top predictors of poor long-term outcome, by rank of importance, were a pyrazinamide 24-hour area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) ≤ 363 mg·h/L, rifampin AUC ≤ 13 mg·h/L, and isoniazid AUC ≤ 52 mg·h/L. Poor outcomes were encountered in 32/78 patients with the AUC of at least 1 drug below the identified threshold vs 3/64 without (odds ratio = 14.14; 95% confidence interval, 4.08-49.08). Low rifampin and isoniazid peak and AUC concentrations preceded all cases of acquired drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS Low drug AUCs are predictive of clinical outcomes in tuberculosis patients.

Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Not Due to Noncompliance but to Between-Patient Pharmacokinetic Variability

BACKGROUND It is believed that nonadherence is the proximate cause of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-tuberculosis) emergence. The level of nonadherence associated with emergence of MDR-tuberculosis is unknown. Performance of a randomized controlled trial in which some patients are randomized to nonadherence would be unethical; therefore, other study designs should be utilized. METHODS We performed hollow fiber studies for both bactericidal and sterilizing effect, with inoculum spiked with 0.5% rifampin- and isoniazid-resistant isogenic strains in some experiments. Standard therapy was administered daily for 28-56 days, with extents of nonadherence varying between 0% and 100%. Sizes of drug-resistant populations were compared using analysis of variance. We also explored the effect of pharmacokinetic variability on MDR-tuberculosis emergence using computer-aided clinical trial simulations of 10 000 Cape Town, South Africa, tuberculosis patients. RESULTS Therapy failure was only encountered at extents of nonadherence ≥60%. Surprisingly, isoniazid- and rifampin-resistant populations did not achieve ≥1% proportion in any experiment and did not achieve a higher proportion with nonadherence. However, clinical trial simulations demonstrated that approximately 1% of tuberculosis patients with perfect adherence would still develop MDR-tuberculosis due to pharmacokinetic variability alone. CONCLUSIONS These data, based on a preclinical model, demonstrate that nonadherence alone is not a sufficient condition for MDR-tuberculosis emergence.

Meta-Analysis of Clinical Studies Supports the Pharmacokinetic Variability Hypothesis for Acquired Drug Resistance and Failure of Antituberculosis Therapy

BACKGROUND Using hollow-fiber tuberculosis studies, we recently demonstrated that nonadherence is not a significant factor for ADR and that therapy failure only occurs after a large proportion of doses are missed. Computer-aided clinical trial simulations have suggested that isoniazid and rifampin pharmacokinetic variability best explained poor outcomes. We were interested in determining whether isoniazid pharmacokinetic variability was associated with either microbiological failure or ADR in the clinic. METHODS Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. Prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trials that reported isoniazid acetylation status and microbiological outcomes were selected. The main effects examined were microbiological sputum conversion, ADR, and relapse. Effect size was expressed as pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing rapid with slow acetylators. RESULTS Thirteen randomized studies with 1631 rapid acetylators and 1751 slow acetylators met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Rapid acetylators were more likely than slow acetylators to have microbiological failure (RR, 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-2.7), ADR (RR, 2.0; CI, 1.1-3.4), and relapse (RR, 1.3; CI, .9-2.0). Higher failure rates were encountered even in drug regimens comprising >3 antibiotics. No publication bias or small-study effects were observed for the outcomes evaluated. CONCLUSIONS Pharmacokinetic variability to a single drug in the regimen is significantly associated with failure of therapy and ADR in patients. This suggests that individualized dosing for tuberculosis may be more effective than standardized dosing, which is prescribed in directly observed therapy programs.

The epidemiology, pathogenesis, transmission, diagnosis, and management of multidrug-resistant, extensively drug-resistant, and incurable tuberculosis

Global tuberculosis incidence has declined marginally over the past decade, and tuberculosis remains out of control in several parts of the world including Africa and Asia. Although tuberculosis control has been effective in some regions of the world, these gains are threatened by the increasing burden of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis. XDR tuberculosis has evolved in several tuberculosis-endemic countries to drug-incurable or programmatically incurable tuberculosis (totally drug-resistant tuberculosis). This poses several challenges similar to those encountered in the pre-chemotherapy era, including the inability to cure tuberculosis, high mortality, and the need for alternative methods to prevent disease transmission. This phenomenon mirrors the worldwide increase in antimicrobial resistance and the emergence of other MDR pathogens, such as malaria, HIV, and Gram-negative bacteria. MDR and XDR tuberculosis are associated with high morbidity and substantial mortality, are a threat to health-care workers, prohibitively expensive to treat, and are therefore a serious public health problem. In this Commission, we examine several aspects of drug-resistant tuberculosis. The traditional view that acquired resistance to antituberculous drugs is driven by poor compliance and programmatic failure is now being questioned, and several lines of evidence suggest that alternative mechanisms-including pharmacokinetic variability, induction of efflux pumps that transport the drug out of cells, and suboptimal drug penetration into tuberculosis lesions-are likely crucial to the pathogenesis of drug-resistant tuberculosis. These factors have implications for the design of new interventions, drug delivery and dosing mechanisms, and public health policy. We discuss epidemiology and transmission dynamics, including new insights into the fundamental biology of transmission, and we review the utility of newer diagnostic tools, including molecular tests and next-generation whole-genome sequencing, and their potential for clinical effectiveness. Relevant research priorities are highlighted, including optimal medical and surgical management, the role of newer and repurposed drugs (including bedaquiline, delamanid, and linezolid), pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic considerations, preventive strategies (such as prophylaxis in MDR and XDR contacts), palliative and patient-orientated care aspects, and medicolegal and ethical issues.

An Oracle: Antituberculosis Pharmacokinetics-Pharmacodynamics, Clinical Correlation, and Clinical Trial Simulations To Predict the Future

ABSTRACT Antimicrobial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) science and clinical trial simulations have not been adequately applied to the design of doses and dose schedules of antituberculosis regimens because many researchers are skeptical about their clinical applicability. We compared findings of preclinical PK/PD studies of current first-line antituberculosis drugs to findings from several clinical publications that included microbiologic outcome and pharmacokinetic data or had a dose-scheduling design. Without exception, the antimicrobial PK/PD parameters linked to optimal effect were similar in preclinical models and in tuberculosis patients. Thus, exposure-effect relationships derived in the preclinical models can be used in the design of optimal antituberculosis doses, by incorporating population pharmacokinetics of the drugs and MIC distributions in Monte Carlo simulations. When this has been performed, doses and dose schedules of rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin with the potential to shorten antituberculosis therapy have been identified. In addition, different susceptibility breakpoints than those in current use have been identified. These steps outline a more rational approach than that of current methods for designing regimens and predicting outcome so that both new and older antituberculosis agents can shorten therapy duration.

A Meta-Analysis of Self-Administered vs Directly Observed Therapy Effect on Microbiologic Failure, Relapse, and Acquired Drug Resistance in Tuberculosis Patients

We performed a meta-analysis of prospective studies to compare microbiologic failure, relapse, and acquired drug resistance in tuberculosis patients on directly observed versus self-administered therapy. Directly administered therapy was no better than self-administered therapy.

Impact of Nonlinear Interactions of Pharmacokinetics and MICs on Sputum Bacillary Kill Rates as a Marker of Sterilizing Effect in Tuberculosis

ABSTRACT The relationships between antituberculosis drug exposure and treatment effects on humans receiving multidrug therapy are complex and nonlinear. In patients on treatment, an analysis of the rate of decline in the sputum bacillary burden reveals two slopes. The first is the α-slope, which is thought to reflect bactericidal effect, followed by a β-slope, which is thought to reflect sterilizing activity. We sought to characterize the effects of standard first-line treatment on sterilizing activity. Fifty-four patients receiving combination therapy for pulmonary tuberculosis in a clinical trial had drug concentrations measured and Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates available for MIC identification. Sputum sample cultures were performed at baseline and weekly for 8 weeks. A time-to-event model based on the days to positivity in the liquid cultures was used to estimate the β-slope. The pharmacokinetic parameters of rifampin, isoniazid, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide were determined for each patient. Multivariate adaptive regression splines analyses, which simultaneously perform linear and nonlinear analyses, were used to identify the relationships between the predictors and the β-slope. The potential predictors examined included HIV status, lung cavitation, 24-h area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), peak drug concentration (Cmax), AUC/MIC ratio, Cmax/MIC ratio, and the time that that concentration persisted above MIC. A rifampin Cmax of >8.2 mg/liter and a pyrazinamide AUC/MIC of >11.3 were key predictors of the β-slope and interacted positively to increase the β-slope. In patients with a rifampin AUC of <35.4 mg · h/liter, an increase in the pyrazinamide AUC/MIC and/or ethambutol Cmax/MIC increased the β-slope, while increasing isoniazid Cmax decreased it, suggesting isoniazid antagonism. Antibiotic concentrations and MICs interact in a nonlinear fashion as the main drivers of a sterilizing effect. The results suggest that faster speeds of sterilizing effect might be achieved by omitting isoniazid and by increasing rifampin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol exposures. However, isoniazid and ethambutol exposures may only be of importance when rifampin exposure is low. These findings need confirmation in larger studies. (This study has been registered at controlled-trials.com under registration no. ISRCTN80852505.)

A new evolutionary and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic scenario for rapid emergence of resistance to single and multiple anti-tuberculosis drugs

The current understanding of the mechanism of anti-tuberculosis drug resistance has been shaped by the history of development of anti-tuberculosis drugs in the past 60 years and was arrived at as part of inductive generalization. Recently, these standard beliefs have been tested in controlled hollow fiber systems experiments. Drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis was shown to be related to pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) factors, and factors such as pharmacokinetic variability. Poor PK/PD exposures owing to our current non-optimized dosing regimens initiate a chain of evolution driven events, starting with induction of multi-drug efflux pumps, followed by the development of chromosomal mutations in time, which together lead to high level resistance multi-drug resistant tuberculosis and extremely drug resistant tuberculosis.

Drug Concentration Thresholds Predictive of Therapy Failure and Death in Children With Tuberculosis: Bread Crumb Trails in Random Forests

Background. The role of drug concentrations in clinical outcomes in children with tuberculosis is unclear. Target concentrations for dose optimization are unknown. Methods. Plasma drug concentrations measured in Indian children with tuberculosis were modeled using compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. The children were followed until end of therapy to ascertain therapy failure or death. An ensemble of artificial intelligence algorithms, including random forests, was used to identify predictors of clinical outcome from among 30 clinical, laboratory, and pharmacokinetic variables. Results. Among the 143 children with known outcomes, there was high between-child variability of isoniazid, rifampin, and pyrazinamide concentrations: 110 (77%) completed therapy, 24 (17%) failed therapy, and 9 (6%) died. The main predictors of therapy failure or death were a pyrazinamide peak concentration <38.10 mg/L and rifampin peak concentration <3.01 mg/L. The relative risk of these poor outcomes below these peak concentration thresholds was 3.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.28–5.83). Isoniazid had concentration-dependent antagonism with rifampin and pyrazinamide, with an adjusted odds ratio for therapy failure of 3.00 (95% CI, 2.08–4.33) in antagonism concentration range. In regard to death alone as an outcome, the same drug concentrations, plus z scores (indicators of malnutrition), and age <3 years, were highly ranked predictors. In children <3 years old, isoniazid 0- to 24-hour area under the concentration-time curve <11.95 mg/L × hour and/or rifampin peak <3.10 mg/L were the best predictors of therapy failure, with relative risk of 3.43 (95% CI, .99–11.82). Conclusions. We have identified new antibiotic target concentrations, which are potential biomarkers associated with treatment failure and death in children with tuberculosis.

Clinical and Toxicodynamic Evidence that High-Dose Pyrazinamide Is Not More Hepatotoxic than the Low Doses Currently Used

ABSTRACT Antimicrobial pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic studies suggest that pyrazinamide doses higher than those currently recommended may be more efficacious. However, high pyrazinamide doses are believed to be hepatotoxic. Searches for clinical trials in MEDLINE, EBSCOHOST, and the Cochrane Controlled Trial Register were made. Studies that employed pyrazinamide dose scheduling and pharmacokinetic analysis design were examined. Population pharmacokinetic modeling methods were utilized to identify parameters associated with toxicity. At an equivalent area under the concentration-time curve, the time that concentration persisted above some thresholds was associated with overall adverse events (P = 0.032), arthralgia (P = 0.089), and an elevated serum aspartate aminotransferase level at 3 months (P = 0.067). Next, a meta-analysis was utilized to compare rates of adverse events (i) between different pyrazinamide doses, (ii) between different dosing schedules, and (iii) between pyrazinamide-containing and non-pyrazinamide-containing antituberculosis regimens. The 29 studies selected were heterogeneous (Cochrane Q statistic P value of <0.001; I2 of >95%). For the once-a-day dosing schedule, arthralgia was dose dependent (r2 = 0.996). However, arthralgia was less common with intermittent dosing, consistent with the time concentration persisted above the threshold. Arthralgia was generally clinically inconsequential. The frequencies of hepatotoxicity were 0.057 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.021 to 0.141) for pyrazinamide monotherapy, 0.044 (CI, 0.033 to 0.059) for pyrazinamide-containing combination regimens, and 0.040 (CI, 0.023 to 0.040) for non-pyrazinamide-containing combination regimens. The frequencies of hepatotoxicity were 0.042 (CI, 0.026 to 0.067) for 30 mg/kg of body weight, 0.055 (CI, 0.031 to 0.094) at 40 mg/kg, and 0.098 (CI, 0.047 to 0.193) at 60 mg/kg of pyrazinamide. Thus, high-dose pyrazinamide did not significantly increase hepatotoxicity. This suggests that a considerable portion of hepatotoxicity rates may be idiosyncratic.