Juan I. Perotti

Analytically Solvable Model of Spreading Dynamics with Non-Poissonian Processes

Non-Poissonian bursty processes are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena, yet little is known about their effects on the large-scale spreading dynamics. In order to characterize these effects, we devise an analytically solvable model of susceptible-infected spreading dynamics in infinite systems for arbitrary inter-event time distributions and for the whole time range. Our model is stationary from the beginning, and the role of the lower bound of inter-event times is explicitly considered. The exact solution shows that for early and intermediate times, the burstiness accelerates the spreading as compared to a Poisson-like process with the same mean and same lower bound of inter-event times. Such behavior is opposite for late-time dynamics in finite systems, where the power-law distribution of inter-event times results in a slower and algebraic convergence to a fully infected state in contrast to the exponential decay of the Poisson-like process. We also provide an intuitive argument for the exponent characterizing algebraic convergence.

Emergent self-organized complex network topology out of stability constraints.

Although most networks in nature exhibit complex topologies, the origins of such complexity remain unclear. We propose a general evolutionary mechanism based on global stability. This mechanism is incorporated into a model of a growing network of interacting agents in which each new agents membership in the network is determined by the agents effect on the networks global stability. It is shown that out of this stability constraint complex topological properties emerge in a self-organized manner, offering an explanation for their observed ubiquity in biological networks.

Correlated bursts and the role of memory range.

Inhomogeneous temporal processes in natural and social phenomena have been described by bursts that are rapidly occurring events within short time periods alternating with long periods of low activity. In addition to the analysis of heavy-tailed interevent time distributions, higher-order correlations between interevent times, called correlated bursts, have been studied only recently. As the underlying mechanism behind such correlated bursts is far from being fully understood, we devise a simple model for correlated bursts using a self-exciting point process with a variable range of memory. Whether a new event occurs is stochastically determined by a memory function that is the sum of decaying memories of past events. In order to incorporate the noise and/or limited memory capacity of systems, we apply two memory loss mechanisms: a fixed number or a variable number of memories. By analysis and numerical simulations, we find that too much memory effect may lead to a Poissonian process, implying that there exists an intermediate range of memory effect to generate correlated bursts comparable to empirical findings. Our conclusions provide a deeper understanding of how long-range memory affects correlated bursts.

Hierarchical mutual information for the comparison of hierarchical community structures in complex networks

The quest for a quantitative characterization of community and modular structure of complex networks produced a variety of methods and algorithms to classify different networks. However, it is not clear if such methods provide consistent, robust, and meaningful results when considering hierarchies as a whole. Part of the problem is the lack of a similarity measure for the comparison of hierarchical community structures. In this work we give a contribution by introducing the hierarchical mutual information, which is a generalization of the traditional mutual information and makes it possible to compare hierarchical partitions and hierarchical community structures. The normalized version of the hierarchical mutual information should behave analogously to the traditional normalized mutual information. Here the correct behavior of the hierarchical mutual information is corroborated on an extensive battery of numerical experiments. The experiments are performed on artificial hierarchies and on the hierarchical community structure of artificial and empirical networks. Furthermore, the experiments illustrate some of the practical applications of the hierarchical mutual information, namely the comparison of different community detection methods and the study of the consistency, robustness, and temporal evolution of the hierarchical modular structure of networks.

Memory and long-range correlations in chess games

In this paper we report the existence of long-range memory in the opening moves of a chronologically ordered set of chess games using an extensive chess database. We used two mapping rules to build discrete time series and analyzed them using two methods for detecting long-range correlations; rescaled range analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis. We found that long-range memory is related to the level of the players. When the database is filtered according to player levels we found differences in the persistence of the different subsets. For high level players, correlations are stronger at long time scales; whereas in intermediate and low level players they reach the maximum value at shorter time scales. This can be interpreted as a signature of the different strategies used by players with different levels of expertise. These results are robust against the assignation rules and the method employed in the analysis of the time series.

Contextual analysis framework for bursty dynamics

To understand the origin of bursty dynamics in natural and social processes we provide a general analysis framework in which the temporal process is decomposed into subprocesses and then the bursts in subprocesses, called contextual bursts, are combined to collective bursts in the original process. For the combination of subprocesses, it is required to consider the distribution of different contexts over the original process. Based on minimal assumptions for interevent time statistics, we present a theoretical analysis for the relationship between contextual and collective interevent time distributions. Our analysis framework helps to exploit contextual information available in decomposable bursty dynamics.

Innovation and Nested Preferential Growth in Chess Playing Behavior

Complexity develops via the incorporation of innovative properties. Chess is one of the most complex strategy games, where expert contenders exercise decision making by imitating old games or introducing innovations. In this work, we study innovation in chess by analyzing how different move sequences are played at the population level. It is found that the probability of exploring a new or innovative move decreases as a power law with the frequency of the preceding move sequence. Chess players also exploit already known move sequences according to their frequencies, following a preferential growth mechanism. Furthermore, innovation in chess exhibits Heaps law suggesting similarities with the process of vocabulary growth. We propose a robust generative mechanism based on nested Yule-Simon preferential growth processes that reproduces the empirical observations. These results, supporting the self-similar nature of innovations in chess are important in the context of decision making in a competitive scenario, and extend the scope of relevant findings recently discovered regarding the emergence of Zipfs law in chess.

Smart random walkers: The cost of knowing the path

In this work we study the problem of targeting signals in networks using entropy information measurements to quantify the cost of targeting. We introduce a penalization rule that imposes a restriction on the long paths and therefore focuses the signal to the target. By this scheme we go continuously from fully random walkers to walkers biased to the target. We found that the optimal degree of penalization is mainly determined by the topology of the network. By analyzing several examples, we have found that a small amount of penalization reduces considerably the typical walk length, and from this we conclude that a network can be efficiently navigated with restricted information.

A Study of Memory Effects in a Chess Database.

A series of recent works studying a database of chronologically sorted chess games–containing 1.4 million games played by humans between 1998 and 2007– have shown that the popularity distribution of chess game-lines follows a Zipf’s law, and that time series inferred from the sequences of those game-lines exhibit long-range memory effects. The presence of Zipf’s law together with long-range memory effects was observed in several systems, however, the simultaneous emergence of these two phenomena were always studied separately up to now. In this work, by making use of a variant of the Yule-Simon preferential growth model, introduced by Cattuto et al., we provide an explanation for the simultaneous emergence of Zipf’s law and long-range correlations memory effects in a chess database. We find that Cattuto’s Model (CM) is able to reproduce both, Zipf’s law and the long-range correlations, including size-dependent scaling of the Hurst exponent for the corresponding time series. CM allows an explanation for the simultaneous emergence of these two phenomena via a preferential growth dynamics, including a memory kernel, in the popularity distribution of chess game-lines. This mechanism results in an aging process in the chess game-line choice as the database grows. Moreover, we find burstiness in the activity of subsets of the most active players, although the aggregated activity of the pool of players displays inter-event times without burstiness. We show that CM is not able to produce time series with bursty behavior providing evidence that burstiness is not required for the explanation of the long-range correlation effects in the chess database. Our results provide further evidence favoring the hypothesis that long-range correlations effects are a consequence of the aging of game-lines and not burstiness, and shed light on the mechanism that operates in the simultaneous emergence of Zipf’s law and long-range correlations in a community of chess players.

Structure constrained by metadata in networks of chess players

Chess is an emblematic sport that stands out because of its age, popularity and complexity. It has served to study human behavior from the perspective of a wide number of disciplines, from cognitive skills such as memory and learning, to aspects like innovation and decision-making. Given that an extensive documentation of chess games played throughout history is available, it is possible to perform detailed and statistically significant studies about this sport. Here we use one of the most extensive chess databases in the world to construct two networks of chess players. One of the networks includes games that were played over-the-board and the other contains games played on the Internet. We study the main topological characteristics of the networks, such as degree distribution and correlations, transitivity and community structure. We complement the structural analysis by incorporating players’ level of play as node metadata. Although both networks are topologically different, we show that in both cases players gather in communities according to their expertise and that an emergent rich-club structure, composed by the top-rated players, is also present.