Juan Jose Miranda

Panel Data Designs and Estimators as Substitutes for Randomized Controlled Trials in the Evaluation of Public Programs

In the evaluation of public programs, experimental designs are rare. Researchers instead rely on observational designs. Observational designs that use panel data are widely portrayed as superior to time-series or cross-sectional designs because they provide opportunities to control for observable and unobservable variables correlated with outcomes and exposure to a program. The most popular panel data evaluation designs use linear, fixed-effects estimators with additive individual and time effects. To assess the ability of observational designs to replicate results from experimental designs, scholars use design replications. No such replications have assessed popular, fixed-effects panel data models that exploit repeated observations before and after treatment assignment. We implement such a study using, as a benchmark, results from a randomized environmental program that included effective and ineffective treatments. The popular linear, fixed-effects estimator fails to generate impact estimates or statistical inferences similar to the experimental estimator. Applying common flexible model specifications or trimming procedures also fail to yield accurate estimates or inferences. However, following best practices for selecting a nonexperimental comparison group and combining matching methods with panel data estimators, we replicate the experimental benchmarks. We demonstrate how the combination of panel and matching methods mitigates common concerns about specifying the correct functional form, the nature of treatment effect heterogeneity, and the way in which time enters the model. Our results are consistent with recent claims that design trumps methods in estimating treatment effects and that combining designs is more likely to approximate a randomized controlled trial than applying a single design.

One Health Economics to confront disease threats

Abstract Global economic impacts of epidemics suggest high return on investment in prevention and One Health capacity. However, such investments remain limited, contributing to persistent endemic diseases and vulnerability to emerging ones. An interdisciplinary workshop explored methods for country-level analysis of added value of One Health approaches to disease control. Key recommendations include: 1. systems thinking to identify risks and mitigation options for decision-making under uncertainty; 2. multisectoral economic impact assessment to identify wider relevance and possible resource-sharing, and 3. consistent integration of environmental considerations. Economic analysis offers a congruent measure of value complementing diverse impact metrics among sectors and contexts.

Analysis of the Impact of Investments in Disaster Risk Reduction and Prevention in MexicoAnálisis de los impactos de las inversiones en prevención y reducción de riesgos en México : estudio de caso de Tabasco entre 2007 y 2011: Case Study of Tabasco between 2007 and 2011

In the late nineties, the Mexican Government has implemented a fiscal risk management policy for natural disasters through the creation of the Mexican fund for natural disasters (FONDEN). The case of Tabasco presents a unique opportunity to analyze the impact of the investments in disaster risk reduction (DRR) in Mexico. The purpose of this report is to assess the impact of said investments in the state of Tabasco between 2007 and 2010 and to analyze, on the basis of empirical evidence, the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of risk reduction measures in the country. Due to its geographical location and hydrological characteristics, the state of Tabasco has been affected by 33 hydrological disasters, such as intense rainfall events, floods, and tropical storms, over the last ten years. The analysis confirms that the DRR measures implemented after the 2007 floods played a key role in reducing the damages and losses sustained in the 2010 events. The first section of this document presents background information on the state of Tabasco, how fiscal risk management is handled upon natural disasters in Mexico, and an overview on the creation and implementation of the Plan Hidrico Integral de Tabasco (PHIT). The second section presents the methodology used for assessing the impact of the investments in DRR measures implemented after 2007. The third section analyzes the advantages of both methods, the implications of the results obtained, and the potential of investments in DRR as a cost-effective measure to mitigate the impact of adverse weather events.

Evidence from a Natural Experiment on the Development Impact of Windfall Gains: The Camisea Fund in Peru

This document studies the economic effect of windfall gains by examining a Peruvian natural experiment. The Camisea Fund for Socioeconomic Development (FOCAM) is an inter-governmental fiscal transfer scheme that allocates natural gas royalties generated by the Camisea Gas Project to eligible subnational governments. We exploit the rules governing FOCAM allocation to identify the effect of the transfers on municipal accounts, local infrastructure, and economic development. Using a newly constructed district- level dataset for the years 2005 and 2012, we find evidence of positive impacts on municipal capital expenditures and local infrastructure. However, we also find evidence of a negative impact on municipal current expenditures. More specifically, we find that municipalities with low absorptive capacity coped with the increased administrative burden of FOCAM transfers by reallocating administrative effort toward (away from) executing capital (current) expenditures.