Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez

Are Commodity Prices More Volatile Now? A Long-Run Perspective

Soaring commodity prices in 2007 and 2008 raised concerns that volatility was also rising, which would have implications for welfare and therefore for the design of public policy interventions. The literature focuses on trends in commodity prices rather than their volatility characteristics. This paper contributes by examining commodity price volatility with a newly compiled monthly panel dataset on 45 individual commodity prices from the end of the 18th century until today. The main conclusions are: the timing and number of breaks in volatility vary considerably across individual commodities, cautioning against generalizations based on the use of commodity price indices; the three most significant breaks common to most commodities are the two world wars and the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system; and structural breaks marking increased price volatility are followed by breaks marking declines in volatility so that there is no upward or downward trend in volatility over time.

How is the slowdown affecting households in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper shows evidence that suggests the economic slowdown in Latin America and the Caribbean has already translated into slowing social gains, including decelerating poverty reduction, stagnating growth of the middle class, and lower income growth. The countries of South America outperformed Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean in poverty reduction during the decade up to 2012. But since then, a new story has emerged. In recent years, poverty reduction has been disappointing across the entire region, which seems to be converging toward low growth with slow poverty reduction and stagnant inequality. However, this apparent convergence in poverty reduction is driven by diverging labor market patterns. In a reversal of the trends seen during the commodity boom, real wages have been falling in South America and rising in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. As lower economic growth is likely, the new normal will pose challenges for policy makers, in protecting the gains achieved and for societies as they face a mismatch between expectations and actual social mobility.

The changing way governments talk about poverty and inequality : evidence from two centuries of Latin American presidential speeches

This study uses text mining techniques on almost 900 presidential ‘state-of-the-union’, type speeches from 10 Latin American countries from 1819 to 2016. The paper documents a sharp increase in recent decades in references to poverty and inequality. The study’s long-term view shows that the way in which poverty and inequality are discussed has been changing. Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm, the paper shows that in recent years poverty has been increasingly discussed as a broader multidimensional challenge that requires a variety of social programs. Inequality has been increasingly framed as an issue of equal opportunities, whereas previously there was a greater focus on social justice. The paper assesses whether the prevalence of poverty and inequality in presidential speeches correlates with measures such as social public spending, as well as the poverty and inequality levels of the country. It finds that during the 2000s, the countries that discussed poverty and inequality at greater length were also the ones that increased social spending and educed poverty and inequality the most.

Behavioral Insights for Development

Behavioral Insights for Development: Cases from Central America brings together a set of experiences that applied behavioral insights to different areas of public policy—in some cases through randomized control trials, and in others using surveys or behavioral games. These experiences collectively show the promise of public policies that are informed by a better understanding of what drives individual behavior. In Costa Rica, for example, informing households of how much water they consume relative to their neighbors reduced water consumption (chapter 1). In Guatemala, altering the way government communicates with taxpayers increased revenue collection (chapter 2). In Nicaragua, an analysis of a cash transfer program found that children in households receiving benefits exhibited significantly higher cognitive development—a result influenced by parental behavior changes during the program (chapter 3). In El Salvador, we explore how different biases explain the apparent puzzle of a gas subsidy reform that benefited most of the population yet proved to be widely unpopular (chapter 4). Chapter 5 also uses behavioral insights to analyze subsidy reforms in El Salvador, this time using a different methodology: a set of economic behavioral games designed to evaluate the willingness of individuals to accept subsidy reforms that would affect them directly. Finally, chapter 6 reflects on the progress made in applying behavioral insights in a development context. These cases illustrate, in practice, some of the findings of the World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior. In particular, they demonstrate the possibility of using nontraditional tools, complementary to regulation, in contexts where time and resources are limited. The World Bank has since established a Mind, Behavior, and Development (eMBeD) Unit within the Poverty and Equity Global Practice to mainstream and scale up behavioral science in public policies and programs. We hope these experiences will help to inform other practitioners about the potential of applying behavioral insights in a development context and will encourage them to consider such approaches as a complement to traditional policy measures.

Higher Wages, Lower Pay: Public vs. Private Sector Compensation in Peru

Do public sector employees earn less than their counterparts in the private sector? This paper addresses this question in the case of Peru, a country where civil service reform is being debated yet the only available empirical studies on wage differentials date back to the late 1980s. Using data from the 2009 national household survey, the authors perform a multiple step analysis. First, they estimate a single equation with a public sector dummy, which is found to be statistically significant and positive when only monetary wages are taken into account. However, when in-kind payments and bonuses are included to measure compensation, the analysis finds a private sector premium. Second, they estimate for public and formal private employees two distinct wage functions, including the inverse Mills ratio. This takes into account the selection bias resulting from workers self-selecting into the public or private sector. Third, these results are used to decompose wage differentials using the standard Oaxaca-Blinder approach. The results show that the compensation differentials are not significant except for the sub-sample of employees that achieved a postgraduate degree.