Juan L. Eugenio-Martin

Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach

We consider the relationship between tourism and economic growth for Latin American countries since 1985 until 1998. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data approach and the Arellano-Bond estimator for dynamic panels. We obtain estimates of the relationship between economic growth and growth in tourists per capita conditional on main macroeconomic variables. We show that the tourism sector is adequate for the economic growth of medium or low-income countries, though not necessarily for developed countries. We then invert the causality direction of the analysis. Rather than explaining economic growth, we try to explain tourism arrivals conditional on GDP and other covariates such as safety, prices and education level, and investment in infrastructures. We employ a generalised least squares AR(1) panel data model. The results provide evidence that low-income countries seem to need adequate levels of infrastructures, education and development to attract tourists. Medium-income countries need high levels of social development like health services and high GDP per capita levels. Finally, the results disclose that price of the destination, in terms of exchange rate and PPP is irrelevant for tourism growth.

Quantifying the Effects of Tourism Crises: An Application to Scotland

SUMMARY Effective crisis management requires information about the ways in which tourists of different nationalities respond to different types of crisis. This paper provides a model which can be used to quantify such effects. The model is applied to the case of American, French and German tourism demand in Scotland. The results show that French tourists were particularly affected by the foot and mouth disease crisis. Germans were most severely affected by the September 11 events. Although arrivals from the USA decreased after both crises, receipts were hardly affected.

Income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand.

This article analyses the role of income in the decision of participating in the tourism demand within 1 year. The tourists who are participating can travel to domestic destinations only, abroad destinations only or to both of them. Such a substitution pattern is modelled using a bivariate probit model. The analysis is carried out to the regional level using a survey conducted in 15 European (EU-15) countries. In addition to the traditional socioeconomic variables, the analysis adds new variables to the outbound tourism demand modelling, such as the attributes of the place of residence. The results show that tourism demand is income elastic. However, there are marked differences in the income elasticities of the probabilities of travelling domestically or abroad. Above certain income threshold, the substitution pattern between destinations takes part. The probability of travelling domestically only remains constant, whereas the probability of travelling abroad keeps growing. Additionally, the article proves that income elasticities vary significantly and nonlinearly with income.

Estimating the Tourism Demand Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Malaga Airport Expansion

This paper shows how structural time series models can be used to estimate the tourism demand impact of an airport expansion. The impact is measured by interventions in the series. Such interventions can be related to one-off events, permanent shifts or permanent changes in the slope of the series. The study case is the Malaga airport expansion. The impact distinguishes two effects: the new terminal building and the new runway. The results show that the infrastructure made a difference in attracting additional international tourists, especially those flying with low-cost carriers. The estimations show that the traffic increased by 6% due to the new terminal building, and the growth rate increased by 18% due to the new runway.