Jukka M. Vesala

Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility

We analyse the ability of the distance-to-default and bond spreads to signal bank fragility. We show that both indicators are complete and unbiased and that spreads are non-linear in the probability of bank default. We empirically test these properties in a sample of EU banks. We find leading properties for both indicators. The distance-to-default exhibits lead times of 6 to 18 months. Spreads have signal value close to default only, in line with the theory. We also find that implicit safety nets weaken the predictive power of spreads. Further, the results suggest complementarity between both indicators, reducing type I errors. We also examine the interaction of the indicators with other bank information. JEL Classification: G21, G12

Cash, Paper, and Electronic Payments: A Cross-Country Analysis

The social cost of a payment system comprises between 1% to 1.5% of GDP. This cost can be reduced if non-cash payments shift from paper to electronics since the cost of an electronic payment is estimated to be from one-third to one-half that of a paper-based transaction. We examine the use of cash and five non-cash payment instruments in 14 developed countries over 1987-1993. Our purpose is (1) to outline the current use of check, paper giro, electronic giro, credit card, and debit card payments and (2) to determine why some payment instruments are used more intensively than others, especially electronic versus paper-based payments. Standard demand theory influences (own price and incomes, institutional factors, and simple availability measures across countries are examined, as is the effect of habit formation. Payment substitution relationships are also estimated and indicate that checks will decline with further growth of electronic payments while the instruments that make up electronic payments will tend to expand together rather than replace one another. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.

The Check's in the Mail: Why the United States Lags in the Adoption of Cost-Saving Electronic Payments

The United States payment system costs around

Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and Market Monitoring

225 billion annually and checks account for 75% of all noncash payments. Other electronic payment methods (debit cards, automated clearing house direct deposits, and debits) cost only around one third to one half as much as a check. This paper outlines the main reasons why the shift from checks to cheaper electronic payments has been slow, much slower here than in other countries. We also forecast the future use of checks and electronic payments and end by discussing policy initiatives that may speed up this substitution process.