Julia A. Ekstrom

A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation.

This article presents a systematic framework to identify barriers that may impede the process of adaptation to climate change. The framework targets the process of planned adaptation and focuses on potentially challenging but malleable barriers. Three key sets of components create the architecture for the framework. First, a staged depiction of an idealized, rational approach to adaptation decision-making makes up the process component. Second, a set of interconnected structural elements includes the actors, the larger context in which they function (e.g., governance), and the object on which they act (the system of concern that is exposed to climate change). At each of these stages, we ask (i) what could impede the adaptation process and (ii) how do the actors, context, and system of concern contribute to the barrier. To facilitate the identification of barriers, we provide a series of diagnostic questions. Third, the framework is completed by a simple matrix to help locate points of intervention to overcome a given barrier. It provides a systematic starting point for answering critical questions about how to support climate change adaptation at all levels of decision-making.

Evaluating Functional Fit between a Set of Institutions and an Ecosystem

This paper presents a quantitative analytical method for measuring functional fit between a specific ecosystem and a defined set of institutions. Functional misfits, the focus of this paper, can arise as a result of gaps in governance—a lack of institutional provision for a socioecological system component or link. The method measures such misfit using a similarity metric (simple matching). This provides an indication of the potential degree of system-wide fit between an ecosystem and a relevant set of institutions. A preliminary form of the approach uses the text of ocean and coastal laws and regulations to represent formal institutional arrangements. This basic demonstration helps show the complex interrelationships that have to be taken into account in a systematic evaluation of fit. Beyond the first iteration, work continues on developing the analytical capacity of the framework and, therefore, its utility to assist, for example, in policy transitions, including those to ecosystem-based management.

Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO2 World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?

Reefs and People at Risk Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science. An Indicator Approach Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.

MINOE: A Software Tool to Analyze Ocean Management Efforts in the Context of Ecosystems

Transitioning ocean governance into an integrated ecosystem-based approach requires improved knowledge of existing governance arrangements. This article presents a software tool, MINOE, to assist policymakers, scientists, and others involved in ecosystem-based management initiatives to navigate through management documents as they relate to a user-defined ecosystem. The tool uses a conceptually modeled ecosystem, defined by the user, and text analysis of a set of management-related documents to determine which ecosystem linkages are potentially acknowledged in the documents. For illustration, the set of documents included with MINOE currently (and used to demonstrate the software in this article) are laws and regulations from four geopolitical jurisdictions for the year 2006; however, users may also import other documents for a more tailored application. Features include an interactive matrix containing results about the set of management documents within the users scope and scale of interest. In addition, MINOE includes metrics and visualization tools to synthesize information derived from the documents. The article presents the software tool, describes potential uses for the tool, and ends with a discussion of future work to expand the program.

Gauging climate preparedness to inform adaptation needs: local level adaptation in drinking water quality in CA, USA

Understanding resource managers’ perceptions of climate change, analytic capacity, and current adaptation activities can provide insight into what can help support adaptation processes at the local level. In California, where a major drought currently demonstrates some of the hardships that could be regularly encountered under a changing climate, we present results from a survey of drinking water utilities about the perceived threat, analytic capacity, and adaptation actions related to maintaining water quality in the face of climate change. Among surveyed utilities (n = 259), awareness is high in regard to climate change occurring and its potential impacts on water quality globally, but perceived risk is lower with regard to climate impacts on local drinking water quality. Just over half of surveyed utilities report at least some adaptation activity to date. The top three variables that most strongly correlated with reported adaptation action were (1) perceived risk on global and local water quality, (2) surface water reliance, and (3) provision of other services beyond drinking water. Other tested variables significantly correlated with reported adaptation action were (4) degree of impact from the current drought and (5) communication with climate change experts. Findings highlight that smaller groundwater-reliant utilities may need the most assistance to initiate climate adaptation processes. Trusted information sources most frequently used across respondents were state government agencies, followed by colleagues in the same utilities. The finding that frequently used sources of information are similar across utilities presents a promising opportunity for training and disseminating climate information to assist those systems needing the most support.

REGNET: Regulatory information management, compliance and analysis

Abstract This paper provides an overview of a research effort that aims to investigate methodologies and tools to facilitate access, compliance and analysis of government regulations. The complexity, diversity, and volume of government regulations are detrimental to business and hinder public understanding of government. The burden of complying with regulations can fall disproportionately on small businesses since these businesses may not have the expertise or resources to keep track of the regulations and the requirements. Regulations emanating from different agencies, each has its own objectives and scopes of concerns, may overlap on similar and related issues and may have inconsistency. The situation can potentially be improved by developing appropriate methodologies and tools that can help facilitate the development and analysis of regulatory documents as well as compliance process. To illustrate, this paper discusses the applications of information technology for selected services related to regulations, such as compliance assistance and comparison of regulations.

Institutional misfit and environmental change: A systems approach to address ocean acidification

Emerging environmental threats often lack sufficient governance to address the full extent of the problem. An example is ocean acidification which is a growing concern in fishing and aquaculture economies worldwide, but has remained a footnote in environmental policy at all governance levels. However, existing legal jurisdictions do account for some aspects of the system relating to ocean acidification and these may be leveraged to support adapting to and mitigating ocean acidification. We refine and apply a methodological framework that helps objectively evaluate governance, from a social-ecological systems perspective. We assess how well a set of extant US institutions fits with the social-ecological interactions pertinent to ocean acidification. The assessment points to measured legal gaps, for which we evaluate the government authorities most appropriate to help fill these gaps. The analysis is conducted on United State federal statutes and regulations. Results show quantitative improvement of institutional fit over time (2006 to 2013), but a substantial number of measured legal gaps persist especially around acknowledging local sources of acidification and adaptation strategies to deal with or avoid impacts. We demonstrate the utility of this framework to evaluate the governance surrounding any emerging environmental threat as a first step to guiding the development of jurisdictionally realistic solutions.

Application of the MINOE regulatory analysis framework: case studies

In this paper, we describe a tool to help holistically understand, research and analyze the relationship between an ecosystem model and the relevant laws. Specifically, a software, MINOE, is being developed to address the needs to identify gaps, overlaps and linkages in the increasingly fragmented set of ocean-related laws. MINOE requires two pieces of information from the users, namely an ecosystem model, and a set of laws and its associated metadata, to perform the analysis. The output from MINOE is a searchable collection of laws organized by ecosystem relationships. Additionally, various visualization modules have been developed to help users synthesize the results for gap and overlap analyses. Two current usage examples are documented to illustrate the potential use of MINOE on legislation and management research.

Policy Analytics Tool to Identify Gaps in Environmental Governance

Persistent and emerging social and environmental issues require new approaches and tools to help develop policies that address the complexities inherent in these problems. Here a policy informatics tool, developed iteratively with the feedback of ocean and coastal domain experts, is presented. The tool relies on two user inputs: a conceptually modelled ecosystem and a compilation of policy documents that covers a given jurisdiction of interest. With these inputs the user can explore what ecosystem components and linkages are potentially acknowledged in policy and which are not. The linkage acknowledgement is based on a co-occurrence of key terms. When viewing highly complex ecosystems (or other systems), the tool offers an efficient way to systematically identify potential gaps in policy and where relevant policies do exist that could be leveraged to cover emerging environmental issues. While the tool is simple in its design, the development with the potential user-community (policy makers, government staff, and ecosystem scientists) demonstrates the usefulness even in such a modest form and the desire for creative, but transparent and accessible, policy analytic tools.

Adapting air quality management for a changing climate: Survey of local districts in California

ABSTRACT Air quality can be affected by weather and thus is sensitive to a changing climate. Wildfire (influenced by weather), consecutive high temperature summer days, and other extreme events are projected to become more severe and frequent with climate change. These may create challenging conditions for managing air quality despite policy targets to reduce precursor and pollutant emissions. Although extreme events are becoming more intense and interest in climate adaptation is increasing among public health practitioners, little attention in scholarly literature and policy covers climate adaptation for air quality governance. Understanding the management and managers’ perspectives at the local level provides insight about the needs for climate adaptation, including their adaptation status, perspectives, responsibilities, and roles. This study explores local manager perspectives and experiences of managing air quality within a changing climate as one puzzle piece to understand the gap in climate adaptation within the air quality sector. A broader goal is to contribute to the discussion of developing a multi-jurisdictional vision for reducing the impacts of air quality in a changing climate. In 2016 local air quality district managers in California were invited to participate in an online survey of 39 questions focused on extreme event impacts on air quality. The questionnaire focused on present air quality threats and extreme event challenges, adaptation status and strategies, adaptive capacities, perceived barriers to adaptation, and jurisdictional responsibilities and roles. Over 85 percent of the 35 local air districts in California participated in the survey, which represents 80 percent of the state’s population. High awareness and knowledge of climate change among local managers indicates they are ready to adopt and take action on policies that would support climate adaptation, but barriers reported suggests they may need policies and adequate funding to take action and make necessary changes. Implications: Downscaled global climate models project an increasing severity and frequency of extreme events. In the southwestern United States, these include wildfire, heat events, and dry periods, among others, all of which can place an extra burden on air quality managers and emitters to achieve air quality standards even as they reduce emissions. Despite climate change presenting increasing challenges to meet air quality standards, in the southwestern United States, policy and action to mitigate these impacts have been surprisingly absent. California presents a valuable case study on the topic because of its historic leadership in air quality management for the United States and also because of its initiatives in combating climate change. Yet still we found that adaptation has not been incorporated into air quality management thus far, but local managers seem sufficiently knowledgeable and willing.