Julia E. Cole

Influence of mean climate change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record.

Today, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the primary driver of interannual variability in global climate, but its long-term behaviour is poorly understood. Instrumental observations reveal a shift in 1976 towards warmer and wetter conditions in the tropical Pacific, with widespread climatic and ecological consequences. This shift, unique over the past century, has prompted debate over the influence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on ENSO variability. Here we present a 155-year ENSO reconstruction from a central tropical Pacific coral that provides new evidence for long-term changes in the regional mean climate and its variability. A gradual transition in the early twentieth century and the abrupt change in 1976, both towards warmer and wetter conditions, co-occur with changes in variability. In the mid–late nineteenth century, cooler and drier background conditions coincided with prominent decadal variability; in the early twentieth century, shorter-period (∼2.9 years) variability intensified. After 1920, variability weakens and becomes focused at interannual timescales; with the shift in 1976, variability with a period of about 4 years becomes prominent. Our results suggest that variability in the tropical Pacific is linked to the region’s mean climate, and that changes in both have occurred during periods of natural as well as anthropogenic climate forcing.

Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa

Although persistent drought in West Africa is well documented from the instrumental record and has been primarily attributed to changing Atlantic sea surface temperatures, little is known about the length, severity, and origin of drought before the 20th century. We combined geomorphic, isotopic, and geochemical evidence from the sediments of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, to reconstruct natural variability in the African monsoon over the past three millennia. We find that intervals of severe drought lasting for periods ranging from decades to centuries are characteristic of the monsoon and are linked to natural variations in Atlantic temperatures. Thus the severe drought of recent decades is not anomalous in the context of the past three millennia, indicating that the monsoon is capable of longer and more severe future droughts.

Indian Ocean SST and Indian Summer Rainfall: Predictive Relationships and Their Decadal Variability

The authors examine relationships between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability and the variability of the Indian monsoon, including analysis of potential long-lead predictions of Indian rainfall by regional SST and the influence of ENSO and decadal variability on the stability of the relationships. Using monthly gridded (4 83 48) SST data from the Global Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) dataset that spans 1945‐94, the correlation fields between the All-India Rainfall Index (AIRI) and SST fields over the tropical Indian Ocean are calculated. In the boreal fall and winter preceding the summer Indian monsoon, SST throughout the tropical Indian Ocean correlates positively with subsequent monsoon rainfall. Negative correlation occurs between SST and the AIRI in the subsequent autumn in the northern Indian Ocean only. A strong correlation (0.53) is found between the summer AIRI and the preceding December‐February Arabian Sea SST. The correlation between the AIRI and the SST to the northwest of Australia for the same period is 0.58. The highest correlation (0.87) for the years following 1977 is found between the AIRI and the central Indian Ocean SST in the preceding September‐November, but this relationship is much weaker in earlier years. Based upon these correlations, the authors define Arabian Sea (AS1), northwest Australia (NWA1), and central Indian Ocean (CIO1) SST indexes. The relationships of these indexes to the AIRI and ENSO are examined. The authors find that the high correlation of the AS1 and NWA1 SST indexes with the Indian summer rainfall is largely unaffected by the removal of the ENSO signal, whereas the correlation of the CIO1 index with the AIRI is reduced. The authors examine the interdecadal variability of the relationships between SST and the AIRI and show that the Indian Ocean has undergone significant secular variation associated with a climate shift in 1976. The possible mechanisms underlying the correlation patterns and the implications of the relationship to the biennial nature of the monsoon and predictability are discussed.

Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the Indian Ocean zonal mode and East African coastal rainfall anomalies

Abstract The variance of the rainfall during the October–November–December (OND) “short rain” season along the coast in Kenya and Tanzania correlates strongly with sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean between 1950 and 1999. A zonal pattern of positive correlation in the Arabian Sea and negative correlation southwest of Sumatra forms in the summer preceding the rainy season. The positive correlation strengthens in the western Indian Ocean and the negative correlation in the eastern Indian Ocean weakens in the subsequent fall concurrent with the short rain. Reduced OND East African rainfall is associated with the reversed SST pattern. The OND rainfall also correlates strongly with ENSO. The SST–rain correlation pattern breaks down between the years 1983 and 1993, as does the correlation with ENSO. However, between 1994 and 1999 the OND rainfall, ENSO, and the SST zonal mode again return to strong correlation, as in the years preceding 1983.

Surface ocean variability at Galapagos from 1936–1982: Calibration of geochemical tracers in corals

A variety of geochemical tracers has been developed in reef corals as a means of reconstructing the natural variability of the tropical surface ocean over wide ranging time frames. The purpose of this paper is to calibrate the performance of five of these tracers in a modern coral colony, over an extended period. A 47-year growth interval (1936–1982) in a colony of Pavona clavus taken from San Cristobal Island, Galapagos Islands, was sectioned into 187 quarterly intervals and analyzed for δ18O, δ13O, Ba/Ca, Cd/Ca, and Mn/Ca. The resulting time series are compared with eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures—one of few instrumental data bases available for calibration over this time period. Linear least squares regressions of four of the tracers (δ18O, δ13O, Ba/Ca, Cd/Ca) against Peruvian SST show highly significant correlations (p<0.0001). Over the annual, biennial, and ENSO (3.8 years) frequency bands, cross-spectral comparisons show even stronger coherency, with SST frequently accounting for 70–80% of the variance in these tracers. These results as well as the phase relationships determined from the spectral analyses suggest that the coupling between SST and δ18O and the nutrientlike tracers Ba and Cd is controlled principally by seasonal upwelling cycles and interannual interruptions of these cycles brought about by El Nino and anti-El Nino phenomena. An inverse relationship between SST and δ13C has its primary origins in the co-occurrence of the warm SST phase with high light levels during the first half of the calendar year. The association with sunlight derives from the photosynthetic response of algal symbionts which results in fractionation of light and heavy carbon isotopes between soft tissues and CaCO3 skeleton. The fifth tracer, the transition metal Mn, exhibits poorer correlations against both SST and the other tracers. Slight shifts in phasing of the historical Mn/Ca annual cycle suggest that the general water column distribution of this tracer, which is the reverse of a nutrient, may not be stable. The erratic behavior of Mn illustrates how complex hydrography near Galapagos may influence tracers with diverse source signatures.

The Climate of the Last Millennium

We are living in unusual times. Twentieth century climate was dominated by near universal warming with almost all parts of the globe experiencing temperatures at the end of the century that were significantly higher than when it began (Figure 6.1) (Parker et al. 1994, Jones et al. 1999). However the instrumental data provide only a limited temporal perspective on present climate. How unusual was the last century when placed in the longer-term context of climate in the centuries and millennia leading up to the 20th century? Such a perspective encompasses the period before large-scale contamination of the global atmosphere by human activities and global-scale changes in land-surface conditions. By studying the records of climate variability and forcing mechanisms in the recent past, it is possible to establish how the climate system varied under “natural” conditions, before anthropogenic forcing became significant. Natural forcing mechanisms will continue to operate in the 21st century, and will play a role in future climate variations, so regardless of how anthropogenic effects develop it is essential to understand the underlying background record of forcing and climate system response.

Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data

Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis hereinsuggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higherthan 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (.35yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%‐10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse thananythingseenduringthelast2000years—wouldposeunprecedentedchallengestowaterresourcesinthe region.

Tropical-North Pacific Climate Linkages over the Past Four Centuries*

Analyses of instrumental data demonstrate robust linkages between decadal-scale North Pacific and tropical Indo-Pacific climatic variability. These linkages encompass common regime shifts, including the noteworthy 1976 transition in Pacific climate. However, information on Pacific decadal variability and the tropical high-latitude climate connection is limited prior to the twentieth century. Herein tree-ring analysis is employed to extend the understanding of North Pacific climatic variability and related tropical linkages over the past four centuries. To this end, a tree-ring reconstruction of the December–May North Pacific index (NPI)—an index of the atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low pressure cell—is presented (1600–1983). The NPI reconstruction shows evidence for the three regime shifts seen in the instrumental NPI data, and for seven events in prior centuries. It correlates significantly with both instrumental tropical climate indices and a coral-based reconstruction of an optimal tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, supporting evidence for a tropical–North Pacific link extending as far west as the western Indian Ocean. The coral-based reconstruction (1781–1993) shows the twentieth-century regime shifts evident in the instrumental NPI and instrumental tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, and three previous shifts. Changes in the strength of correlation between the reconstructions over time, and the different identified shifts in both series prior to the twentieth century, suggest a varying tropical influence on North Pacific climate, with greater influence in the twentieth century. One likely mechanism is the low-frequency variability of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its varying impact on Indo-Pacific climate.

The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium

AbstractThe distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here power spectra and power laws (β) are estimated from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). The significance of the estimates of spectral densities and β are tested against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (nonclimate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly time scale. Although tree-ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of β calculated from long moisture-sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions) and other types of hydroclimate proxies exceed null expectations. Therefore it may be argued that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of phase 5 of the Coupled ...

A mid-twentieth century reduction in tropical upwelling inferred from coralline trace element proxies

Abstract The Cariaco Basin is an important archive of past climate variability given its response to inter- and extratropical climate forcing and the accumulation of annually laminated sediments within an anoxic water column. This study presents high-resolution surface coral trace element records (Montastrea annularis and Siderastrea siderea) from Isla Tortuga, Venezuela, located within the upwelling center of this region. A two-fold reduction in Cd/Ca ratios (3.5–1.7 nmol/mol) is observed from 1946 to 1952 with no concurrent shift in Ba/Ca ratios. This reduction agrees with the hydrographic distribution of dissolved cadmium and barium and their expected response to upwelling. Significant anthropogenic variability is also observed from Pb/Ca analysis, observing three lead maxima since 1920. Kinetic control of trace element ratios is inferred from an interspecies comparison of Cd/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios (consistent with the Sr/Ca kinetic artifact), but these artifacts are smaller than the environmental signal and do not explain the Cd/Ca transition. The trace element records agree with historical climate data and differ from sedimentary faunal abundance records, suggesting a linear response to North Atlantic extratropical forcing cannot account for the observed historical variability in this region.