Julia Kloos

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.

Making SDGs work for climate change hotspots

The impacts of climate change on peoples livelihoods have been widely documented. It is expected that climate and environmental change will hamper poverty reduction, or even exacerbate poverty in some or all of its dimensions. Changes in the biophysical environment, such as droughts, flooding, water quantity and quality, and degrading ecosystems, are expected to affect opportunities for people to generate income. These changes, combined with a deficiency in coping strategies and innovation to adapt to particular climate change threats, are in turn likely to lead to increased economic and social vulnerability of households and communities, especially amongst the poorest.

Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt

CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better policy decisions when attempting to mitigate climate and social change impacts. The CLIWASEC clustering offers an encouraging path for the new European Commission Horizon 2020 programme to follow.

Organic Cotton Production as an Adaptation Option in North-West Benin

Organic agriculture is increasingly recognized as an adaptation measure to support sustainable livelihoods under a changing climate. This study assesses how it constitutes a suitable adaptation strategy in north-west Benin to make rural households more resilient to the increased likelihood of flooding, high-intensity rainfall or droughts. Based on household interviews, focus group discussions and expert interviews in villages around the Pendjari National Park, it was found that agricultural practices of organic cotton production directly reduced the most frequent climatic risks that households faced, and indirectly contributed to reducing economic risks and to empowering women. But there are also obstacles, such as the availability of sufficient organic material and the need for transport to dispersed fields, which currently limit adaptation potential.

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented.

Seasonal Variability: Impacts, Adaptations and the Sustainability Challenge

The reality of having to live with some degree of anthropogenic global warming provides a strong impetus for the development and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. Humans are credited with the ability to foresee and thus to selectively introduce adaptation strategies in anticipation of and response to the challenges of global warming (Gallopin in Glob Environ Change 16(3):293–303, 2006; Gunderson in Ecol Soc 15(2):1–11, 2010). However, these strategies of deliberate change have to be considered in the context of closely coupled social-ecological systems (SES). Adaptations introduced must therefore be compatible with the social-ecological system in its entirety (Berkes et al. in Navigating social-ecological systems. Building resilience for complexity and change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003) and that requires a holistic, systems approach. Using two case studies from West Africa, this chapter presents examples of prominent adaptation strategies that have been introduced in an attempt to adjust to the already evolving climatic conditions. However, through these examples, this chapter demonstrates that a lack of whole systems thinking is at the heart of the limited sustainability of promising strategies. The chapter will examine where the obstacles to sustained implementation arise, concluding with recommendations to address the limitations.

Overview of Ecosystem-Based Approaches to Drought Risk Reduction Targeting Small-Scale Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Rain-fed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) provides major but highly climate-dependent sources of livelihoods. Recurrent dry spells and droughts can impact SSA’s agro-ecosystems in multiple ways, negatively affecting local social-ecological systems (SES). Droughts not only destroy crops and livestock and degrade natural resources but also impact a large variety of ecosystem services. However, ecosystems can also frequently be powerful agents for drought mitigation and resilient livelihoods. Ecosystem-based approaches mitigate drought impacts while providing multiple co-benefits which contribute to poverty alleviation and sustainable development, food security, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and livelihood resilience. In drought risk management, ecosystem-based solutions have always been important, even if not explicitly acknowledged as such. Based on available literature, this chapter provides an overview of approaches for drought risk reduction in SSA in the context of ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA). Using selected criteria, the review found many types of approaches, which strengthen functionality of the ecosystem and offer substantial environmental and socio-economic benefits, and thus help to mitigate drought impacts. More information on the limits of these approaches is needed in order to integrate them effectively into Eco-DRR and EbA programmes and complement them with more traditional disaster risk reduction strategies.

Anticipating Emerging Risks and Vulnerabilities from Sea Level Rise Induced Preventive Resettlement in Greater Alexandria, Egypt

Taking the city of Alexandria in Egypt as an example, this chapter discusses a hypothetical vulnerability scenario for sea level rise (SLR) induced preventive resettlement in Low Lying Coastal Zones (LLCZ). As preventive resettlement may become a realistic –and under some conditions –unavoidable adaptation option to sea level rise and storm surge impacts in the future, the assessment and anticipation of future vulnerabilities and (human) security risks arising from preventive resettlement become important, particularly in developing countries. In this research, a conceptual framework for the anticipation of preventive resettlement induced vulnerabilities has been developed and applied to: (1) assess the conditions that deem Greater Alexandria as uninhabitable; (2) identify exposure of Greater Alexandria to sea level risk and characteristics of communities that require resettlement assistance; and (3) anticipate future vulnerabilities emerging from preventive resettlement. The results for Alexandria show that if current trends in socio-economic conditions prevail, communities will be vulnerable to unemployment and homelessness after being resettled. The assessment can be used to inform policy makers about the needs and possibilities to prepare well in advance for a preventive and people-centered resettlement in order to avoid large-scale displacement. This could lead to associated security challenges of trapped populations as soon as sea level rise progressively impacts exposed communities. Policies that tackle these future vulnerabilities could provide a win-win solution by meeting communities’ needs today and in the future, especially when it comes to reorganizing livelihoods in the course of preventive resettlement.