Sylvia Szabo

Soil salinity, household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh

As a creeping process, salinisation represents a significant long-term environmental risk in coastal and deltaic environments. Excess soil salinity may exacerbate existing risks of food insecurity in densely populated tropical deltas, which is likely to have a negative effect on human and ecological sustainability of these regions and beyond. This study focuses on the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, and uses data from the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Soil Resource Development Institute to investigate the effect of soil salinity and wealth on household food security. The outcome variables are two widely used measures of food security: calorie availability and household expenditure on food items. The main explanatory variables tested include indicators of soil salinity and household-level socio-economic characteristics. The results of logistic regression show that in unadjusted models, soil salinisation has a significant negative effect on household food security. However, this impact becomes statistically insignificant when households’ wealth is taken into account. The results further suggest that education and remittance flows, but not gender or working status of the household head, are significant predictors of food insecurity in the study area. The findings indicate the need to focus scholarly and policy attention on reducing wealth inequalities in tropical deltas in the context of the global sustainable deltas initiative and the proposed Sustainable Development Goals.

Sustainable Development Goals Offer New Opportunities for Tropical Delta Regions

Marine and lacustrine delta regions constitute only 1% of the Earths surface but are home to over 500 million people.1 They are key contributors to agricultural production at the national and regional levels and thus enable alleviation of global food insecurity risks. In addition, tropical megadeltas sustain rich ecosystems that provide a variety of services and are noted for high biodiversity and natural resources.2 At the same time, however, their geographical location, coupled with often poor land use and river basin management, implies that deltas, more than other coastal areas, are prone to natural hazards and disasters such as subsidence, flooding, coastal erosion, and cyclones/typhoons. These environmental shocks have been proven to lead to high out migration and threaten human security in already relatively economically poor regions.3 Climate change, in particular sea-level rise, exacerbates the existing vulnerabilities by increasing the risks of rapid-onset disasters, as well as creeping processes such as salinity intrusion.4,5 Many deltas around the world are therefore threatened.6 This exposure to environmental change has important consequences on peoples livelihoods and human development of the delta regions and beyond. In the case of the Amazon delta, the state-level human development index of the Brazilian State of Para, where most of the deltaic area is located, is the third lowest among the 27 Brazilian states, with the education subindex ranking second poorest.7 In this commentary we discuss new opportunities for the way that the proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda interacts with delta regions and highlight key policy measures needed to address the existing gaps.

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.

Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.

Making SDGs work for climate change hotspots

The impacts of climate change on peoples livelihoods have been widely documented. It is expected that climate and environmental change will hamper poverty reduction, or even exacerbate poverty in some or all of its dimensions. Changes in the biophysical environment, such as droughts, flooding, water quantity and quality, and degrading ecosystems, are expected to affect opportunities for people to generate income. These changes, combined with a deficiency in coping strategies and innovation to adapt to particular climate change threats, are in turn likely to lead to increased economic and social vulnerability of households and communities, especially amongst the poorest.

Urbanisation and Food Insecurity Risks: Assessing the Role of Human Development

The phenomenon of rapid urbanisation across the world has become a topic of increased scholarly inquiry. Yet, little attention has been paid to how urban growth affects countries’ food security and whether this association is modified by a countrys level of development. The present study aims to fill this lacuna by examining the association between urbanisation and food security applying statistical modelling. The analysis uses country-level data, from the World Development Indicators and the United Nations’ World Urbanization Prospects. Using a Food Insecurity Risk Index (FIRI) as the outcome variable, the results confirm a significant negative impact of urban growth on food security at the country level. It further finds that rapidly urbanising countries with the lowest levels of human development are most at risk of food insecurity.

Measuring the SDGs: a two-track solution

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) expire in 2015 and substantial eff ort is being put into the negotiation of a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDG agenda is broader and goes further than that of the MDGs, and critics claim that it is unmeasurable and unmanageable. On the positive side, the consultation process has been far more inclusive and credible than for the MDGs. The resultant Open Working Group (OWG) proposal provides a global agenda for action that is relevant to all nations. As an example of the change, whereas three of the eight MDGs were focused on health, the new SDG for health aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages” and is only one of 17 SDGs. This single health goal is far closer to being all-encompassing than all three of the health MDGs combined, and the social determinants of health are further elaborated in other SDGs (eg, water, sanitation, nutrition, education, clean air, reduced poverty, increased equity, and empowerment of women and girls). If the SDG agenda were enacted in its totality, this would have an enormous eff ect on health and wellbeing for humanity, with particular improvements in the lives of the poor. Two processes are currently underway towards the establishment of the SDGs—political and technical. First, a political negotiation about the content of the SDGs will result in a proposal of goals and targets to the UN General Assembly in September, 2015. In view of the diffi culty in establishing consensus among the many represented member states, this fi nal proposal is likely to be very similar to the OWG proposal, with several acknowledged technical weaknesses. The targets listed are often bundles of intervention areas and not specifi c or measurable, without quantifi ed targets or end goals. Also, many of the targets—especially nonhealth targets—do not have readily available data with which to measure them. Second, a technical process is ongoing to defi ne an accountability framework to allow measurement of these goals and targets by means of a robust set of indicators. Part of the challenge will be the complexity of the new goal and target structure. Each of the 17 SDGs has 3–19 targets, and an additional 0–4 so-called enablers, which defi ne how each goal can be implemented. 126 targets and 43 enablers mean that at least 169 indicators are needed to track all the separate elements. Not surprisingly, a preliminary list of indicators produced by the UN runs to more than 300 indicators, with technical demands for further expansion and development of new indicators. However, to ensure feasibility, aff ordability, and a focus on information, pressure is being applied to reduce the list to a maximum of 120 indicators. The technical process is therefore locked between two competing pressures—to sustain the full content of the intricately negotiated agenda, but also to reduce the number of indicators to be feasible and aff ordable. Technical experts have not managed to convince the negotiators that indicators at impact and process level are diff erent, and that both types are needed. Proponents of potentially useful umbrella indicators, which would measure progress at the goal level (eg, proposals that the health goal be at least partially measured through reductions in preventable mortality), have also not prevailed. As the pressure to reduce the number of indicators mounts, the only suggested mechanism to reduce the list is through an assessment of indicators by statistical agencies. The future therefore looks bleak for goals that do not have highly rated indicators—including several important determinants of health (eg, indicators to measure food insecurity, protection of households from catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditure, population in urban areas exposed to excess outdoor

Sustainable deltas: livelihoods, ecosystem services, and policy implications

Coastal river deltas are dynamic and highly fertile landforms at the intersection of terrestrial and marine environments. They are often densely populated due to the opportunities for livelihood generation they offer, in particular, through agriculture and aquaculture production, but also for economic development and trade (Kuenzer and Renaud 2012). At the same time, and largely because they offer so many opportunities for development, many river deltas globally are threatened both by environmental and anthropogenic processes (Syvitski et al. 2009; Tessler et al. 2015; Szabo et al. 2015a). Deltas and their river basins are naturally dynamic systems, but human interventions in situ, such as urbanization, groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction, agricultural intensification, and channel regulation, and ex situ, including increased upstream water withdrawals, diversion and sediment trapping, increasingly combine with coastal hazards, such as sea level rise, salinity intrusion, and hurricanes to threaten delta social–ecological systems (e.g., Renaud et al. 2013). In combination, such processes exacerbate livelihood losses and existing inequalities, precipitate migration streams and often create new pockets of poverty, especially in urban centers within delta regions (Martin et al. 2013).

Unravelling the association between the impact of natural hazards and household poverty: evidence from the Indian Sundarban delta

Coastal regions have long been settled by humans due to their abundant resources for livelihoods, including agriculture, transportation, and rich biodiversity. However, natural and anthropogenic factors, such as climate change and sea-level rise, and land subsidence, population pressure, developmental activities, pose threats to coastal sustainability. Natural hazards, such as fluvial or coastal floods, impact poorer and more vulnerable communities greater than more affluent communities. Quantitative assessments of how natural hazards affect vulnerable communities in deltaic regions are still limited, hampering the design of effective management strategies to increase household and community resilience. Drawing from Driving Forces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR), we quantify the associations between household poverty and the likelihood of material and human loss following a natural hazard using new survey data from 783 households within Indian Sundarban Delta community. The results suggest that the poorest households are significantly more likely to endure material and human losses following a natural hazard and repeated losses of livelihood make them more vulnerable to future risk. The results further suggest that salinization, tidal surge, erosion, and household location are also significant predictors of economic and human losses. Given the current and projected impact of climate change and importance of delta regions as the world’s food baskets, poverty reduction and increase societal resilience should be a primary pathway to strengthen the resilience of the poorest populations inhabiting deltas.

Evolutionary social and biogeophysical changes in the Amazon, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, provision of goods, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. Here, we show how the analysis of available time-series in tropical delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics in deltaic regions. The paper provides an exploratory analysis of the recent changes that have occurred in the major elements of three tropical deltaic social-ecological systems, such as demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes, and Earth observation data are analysed to explore possible trends, slow and fast variables, and observed drivers of change in the Amazon, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas. In the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services, such as water availability, water quality, and land stability appear to be deteriorating. In the Amazon delta, natural and anthropogenic perturbations are continuously degrading key ecosystem services, such as carbon storage in biomass and soils, the regulation of water balance, and the modulation of regional climate patterns. In the Mekong delta, rapid economic development, changing land-use practices, and salinity intrusion are progressively putting more pressure on the delivery of important provisioning services, such as rice and inland aquaculture production, which are key sources of staple food, farm incomes, and export revenue. Observed changes in many key indicators of ecosystem services point to a changing dynamic state and increased probability of systemic threshold transformations in the near future.