Julien P. Nicolas

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise. The mass balance of the polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques. We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

An Assessment of Precipitation Changes over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean since 1989 in Contemporary Global Reanalyses

AbstractThis study evaluates the temporal variability of the Antarctic surface mass balance, approximated as precipitation minus evaporation (P − E), and Southern Ocean precipitation in five global reanalyses during 1989–2009. The datasets consist of the NCEP/U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project 2 reanalysis (NCEP-2), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25), ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA), and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Reanalyses are known to be prone to spurious trends and inhomogeneities caused by changes in the observing system, especially in the data-sparse high southern latitudes. The period of study has seen a dramatic increase in the amount of satellite observations used for data assimilation.The large positive and statistically significant trends in mean Antarctic P − E and mean Southern Ocean precipitation in NCEP-2, JRA-25, and ...

Climate of West Antarctica and Influence of Marine Air Intrusions

Abstract High-resolution numerical weather forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) archive are used to investigate the climate of West Antarctica (WA) during 2006–07. A comparison with observations from West Antarctic automatic weather stations confirms the skill of the model at simulating near-surface variables. AMPS cloud cover is also compared with estimates of monthly cloud fractions over Antarctica derived from spaceborne lidar measurements, revealing close agreement between both datasets. Comparison with 20-yr averages from the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset demonstrates that the 2006–07 time period as a whole is reflective of the West Antarctic climate from the last two decades. On the 2006–07 annual means computed from AMPS forecasts, the most salient feature is a tongue-shaped pattern of higher cloudiness, accumulation, and 2-m potential temperature stretching over central WA. This feature is caused by repeated intrusions of marine air inland linked to the...

New Reconstruction of Antarctic Near-Surface Temperatures: Multidecadal Trends and Reliability of Global Reanalyses*,+

A reconstruction of Antarctic monthly mean near-surface temperatures spanning 1958‐2012 is presented. ItsprimarygoalistotakeadvantageofarecentlyrevisedkeytemperaturerecordfromWestAntarctica(Byrd) to shed further light on multidecadal temperature changes in this region. The spatial interpolation relies on a kriging technique aided by spatiotemporal temperature covariances derived from three global reanalyses [the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERAInterim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)]. For 1958‐2012, the reconstruction yields statistically significant annual warming in the Antarctic Peninsula and virtually all of West Antarctica, but no significant temperature change in East Antarctica. Importantly, the warming is of comparable magnitude both in central West Antarctica and in most of the peninsula, rather than concentrated either in one or the other region as previousreconstructions have suggested. The Transantarctic Mountains act for the temperature trends, as a clear dividing line between East and West Antarctica, reflecting the topographic constraint on warm air advection from the Amundsen Sea basin. The reconstruction also serves to highlight spurious changes in the 1979‐2009 time series of the three reanalyses that reduces the reliability of their trends, illustrating a longstanding issue in high southern latitudes. The study concludes with an examination of the influence of the southern annular mode (SAM) on Antarctic temperature trends. The results herein suggest that the trend of the SAM toward its positive phase in austral summer and fall since the 1950s has had a statistically significant cooling effect not only in East Antarctica (as already well documented) and but also (only in fall) in West Antarctica.

Influence of persistent wind scour on the surface mass balance of Antarctica

In the Antarctic interior, assessments of surface mass balance may overestimate accumulation because high winds remove some of the annual snowfall. Geophysical observations reveal localized zones of persistent wind scour (where little or no snow accumulates) that are predicted to occur across approximately 5% of the Antarctic surface. Accurate quantification of surface snow accumulation over Antarctica is a key constraint for estimates of the Antarctic mass balance, as well as climatic interpretations of ice-core records1,2. Over Antarctica, near-surface winds accelerate down relatively steep surface slopes, eroding and sublimating the snow. This wind scour results in numerous localized regions (≤200 km2) with reduced surface accumulation3,4,5,6,7. Estimates of Antarctic surface mass balance rely on sparse point measurements or coarse atmospheric models that do not capture these local processes, and overestimate the net mass input in wind-scour zones3. Here we combine airborne radar observations of unconformable stratigraphic layers with lidar-derived surface roughness measurements to identify extensive wind-scour zones over Dome A, in the interior of East Antarctica. The scour zones are persistent because they are controlled by bedrock topography. On the basis of our Dome A observations, we develop an empirical model to predict wind-scour zones across the Antarctic continent and find that these zones are predominantly located in East Antarctica. We estimate that ∼ 2.7–6.6% of the surface area of Antarctica has persistent negative net accumulation due to wind scour, which suggests that, across the continent, the snow mass input is overestimated by 11–36.5 Gt yr−1 in present surface-mass-balance calculations.

January 2016 extensive summer melt in West Antarctica favoured by strong El Niño

Over the past two decades the primary driver of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has been warm ocean water underneath coastal ice shelves, not a warmer atmosphere. Yet, surface melt occurs sporadically over low-lying areas of the WAIS and is not fully understood. Here we report on an episode of extensive and prolonged surface melting observed in the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS in January 2016. A comprehensive cloud and radiation experiment at the WAIS ice divide, downwind of the melt region, provided detailed insight into the physical processes at play during the event. The unusual extent and duration of the melting are linked to strong and sustained advection of warm marine air toward the area, likely favoured by the concurrent strong El Niño event. The increase in the number of extreme El Niño events projected for the twenty-first century could expose the WAIS to more frequent major melt events.

Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

Satellite data and a 35-year hindcast of the Amundsen Sea Embayment summer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to understand how regional and large-scale atmospheric variability affects thinning of ice shelves in this sector of West Antarctica by melting from above and below (linked to intrusions of warm water caused by anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge). El Nino episodes are associated with an increase in surface melt but do not have a statistically significant impact on westerly winds over the continental shelf edge. The location of the Amundsen Sea Low and the polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) have negligible impact on surface melting, although a positive SAM and eastward shift of the Amundsen Sea Low cause anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge. The projected future increase in El Nino episodes and positive SAM could therefore increase the risk of disintegration of West Antarctic ice shelves.

Climate and surface mass balance of coastal West Antarctica resolved by regional climate modelling

ABSTRACT West Antarctic climate and surface mass balance (SMB) records are sparse. To fill this gap, regional atmospheric climate modelling is useful, providing that such models are employed at sufficiently high horizontal resolution and coupled with a snow model. Here we present the results of a high-resolution (5.5 km) regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2) simulation of coastal West Antarctica for the period 1979–2015. We evaluate the results with available in situ weather observations, remote-sensing estimates of surface melt, and SMB estimates derived from radar and firn cores. Moreover, results are compared with those from a lower-resolution version, to assess the added value of the resolution. The high-resolution model resolves small-scale climate variability invoked by topography, such as the relatively warm conditions over ice-shelf grounding zones, and local wind speed accelerations. Surface melt and SMB are well reproduced by RACMO2. This dataset will prove useful for picking ice core locations, converting elevation changes to mass changes, for driving ocean, ice-sheet and coupled models, and for attributing changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and shelves to changes in atmospheric forcing.

A twentieth century perspective on summer Antarctic pressure change and variability and contributions from tropical SSTs and ozone depletion

During the late 20th 33 Century, the Antarctic atmospheric circulation has changed and significantly influenced the overall Antarctic climate, through processes including a poleward shift of the circumpolar westerlies. However, little is known about the full spatial pattern of atmospheric pressure over the Antarctic continent prior to 1979. Here we investigate surface pressure changes across the entire Antarctic continent back to 1905 by developing a new summer pressure reconstruction poleward of 60°S. We find that only across East Antarctica are the recent pressures significantly lower than pressures in the early 20th 40 century; we also discern periods of significant positive pressure trends in the early 20th 41 century across the coastal South Atlantic sector of Antarctica. Climate model simulations reveal that both tropical sea surface temperature variability and other radiative forcing mechanisms, in addition to ozone depletion, have played an important role in forcing the recent observed negative trends.

A New Monthly Pressure Dataset Poleward of 60°S since 1957

AbstractThis study presents a new monthly pressure dataset poleward of 60°S, from 1957 to 2016, based on a kriging interpolation from observed pressure anomalies across the Antarctic continent. Ove...