Junqiao Feng

ENSO cycle and climate anomaly in China

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly (SOTA) and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation (SODA). The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following: 1) there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2) during the mature phase of El Niño, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of El Niño, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Niña event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3) the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the “atmospheric-bridge”, where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper.

How much does heat content of the western tropical Pacific Ocean modulate the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in the last four decades

The role of the western tropical Pacific Ocean heat content in the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset is investigated in the present paper, by using atmospheric data from NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from Japan Meteorology Agency. It is showed from the result that the heat content (HC) of the upper 400 m layer in the western tropical Pacific (WTP), especially in the region of (130 degrees E-150 degrees E, 0 degrees N-14 degrees N) in the last four decades, is a good predictive indicator for the SCSSM onset. Positive (negative) HC anomalies can induce a strong (weak) convection over the WTP, leading to stronger (weaker) Walker circulation and weaker (stronger) western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the boreal spring. Consequently, the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the tropical Indian Ocean is favorable (unfavorable) for the airflow into the SCS and for an early (late) WNPSH retreat from the SCS and hence for an early (late) SCSSM onset. It is elucidated that the long-term trend of SCSSM onset changes its sign around 1993/94 from decline to rise, which is responding and attributed to the WTP HC trend. During the period of 1971-1993, the WTP HC shows a significant decrease trend. In particular, a significant decline trend is observed in the HC difference between the WTP and western tropical Indian Ocean, which causes an easterly trend in the SCS and strengthened WNPSH trend, leading to a late onset trend of SCSSM. The situation is reverse after 1993/94.

How does the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole trigger the tropical Indian Ocean dipole via the Mascarene high

The variation in the Indian Ocean is investigated using Hadley center sea surface temperature (SST) data during the period 1958–2010. All the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the SST anomalies (SSTA) in different domains represent the basin-wide warming and are closely related to the Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Further examination suggests that the impact of ENSO on the tropical Indian Ocean is stronger than that on the southern Indian Ocean. The second EOF modes in different domains show different features. It shows a clear east-west SSTA dipole pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean dipole, IOD), and a southwest-northeast SSTA dipole in the southern Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean subtropical dipole, IOSD). It is further revealed that the IOSD is also the main structure of the second EOF mode on the whole basin-scale, in which the IOD pattern does not appear. A correlation analysis indicates that an IOSD event observed during the austral summer is highly correlated to the IOD event peaking about 9 months later. One of the possible physical mechanisms underlying this highly significant statistical relationship is proposed. The IOSD and the IOD can occur in sequence with the help of the Mascarene high. The SSTA in the southwestern Indian Ocean persists for several seasons after the mature phase of the IOSD event, likely due to the positive wind-evaporation-SST feedback mechanism. The Mascarene high will be weakened or intensified by this SSTA, which can affect the atmosphere in the tropical region by teleconnection. The pressure gradient between the Mascarene high and the monsoon trough in the tropical Indian Ocean increases (decreases). Hence, an anticyclone (cyclone) circulation appears over the Arabian Sea-India continent. The easterly or westerly anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean, inducing the onset stage of the IOD. This study shows that the SSTA associated with the IOSD can lead to the onset of IOD with the aid of atmosphere circulation and also explains why some IOD events in the tropical tend to be followed by IOSD in the southern Indian Ocean.

Niño4 as a Key Region for the Interannual Variability of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) plays an important role in the global climate through modulating deep convections, ENSO, monsoon onsets, etc. Due to the vast spatial range and huge heat storage of the WPWP, near-real-time monitoring of its three-dimensional variations remains challenging. Based on Argo observations and three reanalysis data sets, we find that the Nino4 sea surface temperature (SST) index captures the interannual variability of the WPWP well. The Nino4 SST can explain approximately half of the variance of the WPWP heat content and almost all the variance of the east-west migration of the WPWP. An assessment of 31 CMIP5 models also reveals that models with larger interannual spectral powers and amplitudes of the Nino4 SST tend to simulate larger variations in the heat content and east-west migration of the WPWP. A surface heat budget analysis further shows that the Nino4 SST and WPWP are physically connected through basin-scale horizontal advections of mean temperatures by anomalous horizontal currents, which dominate the interannual variations of both the Nino4 SST and WPWP. Our results indicate that the Nino4 SST can efficiently estimate the interannual WPWP changes and a reliable predictor of the onset time of the South China Sea summer monsoon and Bay of Bengal summer monsoon, without the need to calculate the eastern boundary location and heat content of the WPWP. Moreover, a better simulation of the SST and horizontal currents in the Nino4 region can help to reduce model bias when reproducing the WPWPs interannual variabilities.

Difference in the influence of Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on South Asian Summer Monsoon intensity before and after 1976/1977

Monthly ocean temperature from ORAS4 datasets and atmospheric data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis I/II were used to analyze the relationship between the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and upper ocean heat content (HC) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. The monsoon was differentiated into a Southwest Asian Summer Monsoon (SWASM) (2.5°–20°N, 35°–70°E) and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon (SEASM) (2.5°–20°N, 70°–110°E). Results show that before the 1976/77 climate shift, the SWASM was strongly related to HC in the southern Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean. The southern Indian Ocean affected SWASM by altering the pressure gradient between southern Africa and the northern Indian Ocean and by enhancing the Somali cross-equatorial flow. The tropical Pacific impacted the SWASM through the remote forcing of ENSO. After the 1976/77 shift, there was a close relationship between equatorial central Pacific HC and the SEASM. However, before that shift, their relationship was weak.