Jürgen Kusche

Revisiting the Contemporary Sea Level Budget on Global and Regional Scales

Significance Understanding sea-level change is of paramount importance because it reflects climate-related factors, such as the ocean heat budget, mass changes in the cryosphere, and natural ocean/atmosphere variations. Furthermore, sea-level rise directly affects coastal areas, which has ramifications for its population and economy. From a novel combination of Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment and radar altimetry data we find over the last 12 y: (i) a larger global steric sea-level rise as previously reported, (ii) a mass contribution to global sea level consistent with mass loss estimates from the world’s ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrological sources, and (iii) regionally resolved sea-level budget components which differ significantly from that of the global sea-level budget. Dividing the sea-level budget into contributions from ice sheets and glaciers, the water cycle, steric expansion, and crustal movement is challenging, especially on regional scales. Here, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity observations and sea-level anomalies from altimetry are used in a joint inversion, ensuring a consistent decomposition of the global and regional sea-level rise budget. Over the years 2002–2014, we find a global mean steric trend of 1.38 ± 0.16 mm/y, compared with a total trend of 2.74 ± 0.58 mm/y. This is significantly larger than steric trends derived from in situ temperature/salinity profiles and models which range from 0.66 ± 0.2 to 0.94 ± 0.1 mm/y. Mass contributions from ice sheets and glaciers (1.37 ± 0.09 mm/y, accelerating with 0.03 ± 0.02 mm/y2) are offset by a negative hydrological component (−0.29 ± 0.26 mm/y). The combined mass rate (1.08 ± 0.3 mm/y) is smaller than previous GRACE estimates (up to 2 mm/y), but it is consistent with the sum of individual contributions (ice sheets, glaciers, and hydrology) found in literature. The altimetric sea-level budget is closed by coestimating a remaining component of 0.22 ± 0.26 mm/y. Well above average sea-level rise is found regionally near the Philippines (14.7 ± 4.39 mm/y) and Indonesia (8.3 ± 4.7 mm/y) which is dominated by steric components (11.2 ± 3.58 mm/y and 6.4 ± 3.18 mm/y, respectively). In contrast, in the central and Eastern part of the Pacific, negative steric trends (down to −2.8 ± 1.53 mm/y) are detected. Significant regional components are found, up to 5.3 ± 2.6 mm/y in the northwest Atlantic, which are likely due to ocean bottom pressure variations.

Calibration/Data Assimilation Approach for Integrating GRACE Data into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter: First Results

We introduce a new ensemble-based Kalman filter approach to assimilate GRACE satellite gravity data into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model. The approach (1) enables the use of the spatial resolution provided by GRACE by including the satellite observations as a gridded data product, (2) accounts for the complex spatial GRACE error correlation pattern by rigorous error propagation from the monthly GRACE solutions, and (3) allows us to integrate model parameter calibration and data assimilation within a unified framework. We investigate the formal contribution of GRACE observations to the Kalman filter update by analysis of the Kalman gain matrix. We then present first model runs, calibrated via data assimilation, for two different experiments: the first one assimilates GRACE basin averages of total water storage and the second one introduces gridded GRACE data at

Comparisons of atmospheric mass variations derived from ECMWF reanalysis and operational fields, over 2003–2011

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Separation of deterministic signals using independent component analysis (ICA)

5∘ resolution into the assimilation. We finally validate the assimilated model by running it in free mode (i.e., without adding any further GRACE information) for a period of 3 years following the assimilation phase and comparing the results to the GRACE observations available for this period.

A systematic impact assessment of GRACE error correlation on data assimilation in hydrological models

In this contribution, we describe the global GOCE-only gravity field model ITG-Goce02 derived from 7.5 months of gradiometer and orbit data. This model represents an alternative to the official ESA products as it is computed completely independently, using a different processing strategy and a separate software package. Our model is derived using the short arc approach, which allows a very effective decorrelation of the highly correlated GOCE gradiometer and orbit data noise by introducing a full empirical covariance matrix for each arc, and gives the possibility to downweight ‘bad’ arcs. For the processing of the orbit data we rely on the integral equation approach instead of the energy integral method, which has been applied in several other GOCE models. An evaluation against high-resolution global gravity field models shows very similar differences of our model compared to the official GOCE results published by ESA (release 2), especially to the model derived by the time-wise approach. This conclusion is confirmed by comparison of the GOCE models to GPS/levelling and altimetry data.

The updated ESA Earth System Model for future gravity mission simulation studies

There are two spurious jumps in the atmospheric part of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Atmosphere and Ocean De-aliasing level 1B (GRACE-AOD1B) products, which occurred in January-February of the years 2006 and 2010, as a result of the vertical level and horizontal resolution changes in the ECMWFop (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analysis). These jumps cause a systematic error in the estimation of mass changes from GRACE time-variable level 2 products, since GRACE-AOD1B mass variations are removed during the computation of GRACE level 2. In this short note, the potential impact of using an improved set of 6-hourly atmospheric de-aliasing products on the computations of linear trends as well as the amplitude of annual and semi-annual mass changes from GRACE is assessed. These improvements result from 1) employing a modified 3D integration approach (ITG3D), and 2) using long-term consistent atmospheric fields from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The monthly averages of the new ITG3D-ERA-Interim de-aliasing products are then compared to the atmospheric part of GRACE-AOD1B, covering January 2003 to December 2010. These comparisons include the 33 world largest river basins along with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. The results indicate a considerable difference in total atmospheric mass derived from the two products over some of the mentioned regions. We suggest that future GRACE studies consider these through updating uncertainty budgets or by applying corrections to estimated trends and amplitudes/phases.

Covariance analysis and sensitivity studies for GRACE assimilation into WGHM

The goal of this contribution is to focus on improving the quality of gravity field models in the form of spherical harmonic representation via alternative configuration scenarios applied in future gravimetric satellite missions. We performed full-scale simulations of various mission scenarios within the frame work of the German joint research project “Concepts for future gravity field satellite missions” as part of the Geotechnologies Program, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the German Research Foundation. In contrast to most previous simulation studies including our own previous work, we extended the simulated time span from one to three consecutive months to improve the robustness of the assessed performance. New is that we performed simulations for seven dedicated satellite configurations in addition to the GRACE scenario, serving as a reference baseline. These scenarios include a “GRACE Follow-on” mission (with some modifications to the currently implemented GRACE-FO mission), and an in-line “Bender” mission, in addition to five mission scenarios that include additional cross-track and radial information. Our results clearly confirm the benefit of radial and cross-track measurement information compared to the GRACE along-track observable: the gravity fields recovered from the related alternative mission scenarios are superior in terms of error level and error isotropy. In fact, one of our main findings is that although the noise levels achievable with the particular configurations do vary between the simulated months, their order of performance remains the same. Our findings show also that the advanced pendulums provide the best performance of the investigated single formations, however an accuracy reduced by about 2–4 times in the important long-wavelength part of the spectrum (for spherical harmonic degrees