Jussi T. Eronen

Distribution history and climatic controls of the Late Miocene Pikermian chronofauna

The Late Miocene development of faunas and environments in western Eurasia is well known, but the climatic and environmental processes that controlled its details are incompletely understood. Here we map the rise and fall of the classic Pikermian fossil mammal chronofauna between 12 and 4.2 Ma, using genus-level faunal similarity between localities. To directly relate land mammal community evolution to environmental change, we use the hypsodonty paleoprecipitation proxy and paleoclimate modeling. The geographic distribution of faunal similarity and paleoprecipitation in successive timeslices shows the development of the open biome that favored the evolution and spread of the open-habitat adapted large mammal lineages. In the climate model run, this corresponds to a decrease in precipitation over its core area south of the Paratethys Sea. The process began in the latest Middle Miocene and climaxed in the medial Late Miocene, about 7–8 million years ago. The geographic range of the Pikermian chronofauna contracted in the latest Miocene, a time of increasing summer drought and regional differentiation of habitats in Eastern Europe and Southwestern Asia. Its demise at the Miocene-Pliocene boundary coincides with an environmental reversal toward increased humidity and forestation, changes inevitably detrimental to open-adapted, wide-ranging large mammals.

Diversity in time and space: wanted dead and alive

Current patterns of biological diversity are influenced by both historical and present-day factors, yet research in ecology and evolution is largely split between paleontological and neontological studies. Responding to recent calls for integration, we provide a conceptual framework that capitalizes on data and methods from both disciplines to investigate fundamental processes. We highlight the opportunities arising from a combined approach with four examples: (i) which mechanisms generate spatial and temporal variation in diversity; (ii) how traits evolve; (iii) what determines the temporal dynamics of geographical ranges and ecological niches; and (iv) how species-environment and biotic interactions shape community structure. Our framework provides conceptual guidelines for combining paleontological and neontological perspectives to unravel the fundamental processes shaping life on Earth.

Asynchronous responses of East Asian and Indian summer monsoons to mountain uplift shown by regional climate modelling experiments

It has been demonstrated in climate models that both the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons (ISM and EASM) are strengthened by the uplift of the entire Asian orography or Tibetan Plateau (TP) (i.e. bulk mountain uplift). Such an effect is widely perceived as the major mechanism contributing to the evolution of Asian summer monsoons in the Neogene. However, geological evidence suggests more diachronous growth of the Asian orography (i.e. regional mountain uplift) than bulk mountain uplift. This demands a re-evaluation of the relation between mountain uplift and the Asian monsoon in the geological periods. In this study, sensitivity experiments considering the diachronous growth of different parts of the Asian orography are performed using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM to investigate their effects on the Asian summer monsoons. The results show that, different from the bulk mountain uplift, the regional mountain uplift can lead to an asynchronous development of the ISM and EASM. While the ISM is primarily intensified by the thermal insulation (mechanical blocking) effect of the southern TP (Zagros Mountains), the EASM is mainly enhanced by the surface sensible heating of the central, northern and eastern TP. Such elevated surface heating can induce a low-level cyclonic anomaly around the TP that reduces the ISM by suppressing the lower tropospheric monsoon vorticity, but promotes the EASM by strengthening the warm advection from the south of the TP that sustains the monsoon convection. Our findings provide new insights to the evolution of the Asian summer monsoons and their interaction with the tectonic changes in the Neogene.

Neogene aridification of the Northern Hemisphere

Neogene cooling and aridification in the Northern Hemisphere have long been recognized, but there are no studies comparing patterns of aridity gradients or differences between North America and Eurasia. Large herbivorous mammals are an excellent source for understanding large-scale environmental and climatic patterns because their molar crown height (hypsodonty) reflects both habitat and precipitation. The temporal development of hypsodonty in the North American Great Plains is well studied, but both spatial detail and comparisons with patterns in Eurasia are lacking. Here we use a methodology based on community levels of hypsodonty to estimate precipitation during the Neogene (the past 23 Ma). We show that aridification was more profound and occurred ∼5 Ma earlier in North America than in Eurasia. By combining our results with existing climate model output and new sensitivity experiments, we show how these changes were influenced by ocean heat transport and atmospheric circulation patterns. We further suggest that asymmetric dispersal of large mammals between Eurasia and North America was related to the contrasting humidity regimes between the continents.

History matters: ecometrics and integrative climate change biology

Climate change research is increasingly focusing on the dynamics among species, ecosystems and climates. Better data about the historical behaviours of these dynamics are urgently needed. Such data are already available from ecology, archaeology, palaeontology and geology, but their integration into climate change research is hampered by differences in their temporal and geographical scales. One productive way to unite data across scales is the study of functional morphological traits, which can form a common denominator for studying interactions between species and climate across taxa, across ecosystems, across space and through time—an approach we call ‘ecometrics’. The sampling methods that have become established in palaeontology to standardize over different scales can be synthesized with tools from community ecology and climate change biology to improve our understanding of the dynamics among species, ecosystems, climates and earth systems over time. Developing these approaches into an integrative climate change biology will help enrich our understanding of the changes our modern world is undergoing.

Holocene shifts in the assembly of plant and animal communities implicate human impacts.

Understanding how ecological communities are organized and how they change through time is critical to predicting the effects of climate change. Recent work documenting the co-occurrence structure of modern communities found that most significant species pairs co-occur less frequently than would be expected by chance. However, little is known about how co-occurrence structure changes through time. Here we evaluate changes in plant and animal community organization over geological time by quantifying the co-occurrence structure of 359,896 unique taxon pairs in 80 assemblages spanning the past 300 million years. Co-occurrences of most taxon pairs were statistically random, but a significant fraction were spatially aggregated or segregated. Aggregated pairs dominated from the Carboniferous period (307 million years ago) to the early Holocene epoch (11,700 years before present), when there was a pronounced shift to more segregated pairs, a trend that continues in modern assemblages. The shift began during the Holocene and coincided with increasing human population size and the spread of agriculture in North America. Before the shift, an average of 64% of significant pairs were aggregated; after the shift, the average dropped to 37%. The organization of modern and late Holocene plant and animal assemblages differs fundamentally from that of assemblages over the past 300 million years that predate the large-scale impacts of humans. Our results suggest that the rules governing the assembly of communities have recently been changed by human activity.Understanding how ecological communities are organized and how they change through time is critical to predicting the effects of climate change. Recent work documenting the co-occurrence structure of modern communities found that most significant species pairs co-occur less frequently than would be expected by chance. However, little is known about how co-occurrence structure changes through time. Here we evaluate changes in plant and animal community organization over geological time by quantifying the co-occurrence structure of 359,896 unique taxon pairs in 80 assemblages spanning the past 300 million years. Co-occurrences of most taxon pairs were statistically random, but a significant fraction were spatially aggregated or segregated. Aggregated pairs dominated from the Carboniferous period (307 million years ago) to the early Holocene epoch (11,700 years before present), when there was a pronounced shift to more segregated pairs, a trend that continues in modern assemblages. The shift began during the Holocene and coincided with increasing human population size and the spread of agriculture in North America. Before the shift, an average of 64% of significant pairs were aggregated; after the shift, the average dropped to 37%. The organization of modern and late Holocene plant and animal assemblages differs fundamentally from that of assemblages over the past 300 million years that predate the large-scale impacts of humans. Our results suggest that the rules governing the assembly of communities have recently been changed by human activity.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems

Looking back to move forward The current impacts of humanity on nature are rapid and destructive, but species turnover and change have occurred throughout the history of life. Although there is much debate about the best approaches to take in conservation, ultimately, we need to permit or enhance the resilience of natural systems so that they can continue to adapt and function into the future. In a Review, Barnosky et al. argue that the best way to do this is to look back at paleontological history as a way to understand how ecological resilience is maintained, even in the face of change. Science, this issue p. eaah4787 BACKGROUND The pace and magnitude of human-caused global change has accelerated dramatically over the past 50 years, overwhelming the capacity of many ecosystems and species to maintain themselves as they have under the more stable conditions that prevailed for at least 11,000 years. The next few decades threaten even more rapid transformations because by 2050, the human population is projected to grow by 3 billion while simultaneously increasing per capita consumption. Thus, to avoid losing many species and the crucial aspects of ecosystems that we need—for both our physical and emotional well-being—new conservation paradigms and integration of information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences are required. ADVANCES Rather than attempting to hold ecosystems to an idealized conception of the past, as has been the prevailing conservation paradigm until recently, maintaining vibrant ecosystems for the future now requires new approaches that use both historical and novel conservation landscapes, enhance adaptive capacity for ecosystems and organisms, facilitate connectedness, and manage ecosystems for functional integrity rather than focusing entirely on particular species. Scientific breakthroughs needed to underpin such a paradigm shift are emerging at the intersection of ecology and paleobiology, revealing (i) which species and ecosystems will need human intervention to persist; (ii) how to foster population connectivity that anticipates rapidly changing climate and land use; (iii) functional attributes that characterize ecosystems through thousands to millions of years, irrespective of the species that are involved; and (iv) the range of compositional and functional variation that ecosystems have exhibited over their long histories. Such information is necessary for recognizing which current changes foretell transitions to less robust ecological states and which changes may signal benign ecosystem shifts that will cause no substantial loss of ecosystem function or services. Conservation success will also increasingly hinge on choosing among different, sometimes mutually exclusive approaches to best achieve three conceptually distinct goals: maximizing biodiversity, maximizing ecosystem services, and preserving wilderness. These goals vary in applicability depending on whether historical or novel ecosystems are the conservation target. Tradeoffs already occur—for example, managing to maximize certain ecosystem services upon which people depend (such as food production on farm or rangelands) versus maintaining healthy populations of vulnerable species (such as wolves, lions, or elephants). In the future, the choices will be starker, likely involving decisions such as which species are candidates for managed relocation and to which areas, and whether certain areas should be off limits for intensive management, even if it means losing some species that now live there. Developing the capacity to make those choices will require conservation in both historical and novel ecosystems and effective collaboration of scientists, governmental officials, nongovernmental organizations, the legal community, and other stakeholders. OUTLOOK Conservation efforts are currently in a state of transition, with active debate about the relative importance of preserving historical landscapes with minimal human impact on one end of the ideological spectrum versus manipulating novel ecosystems that result from human activities on the other. Although the two approaches are often presented as dichotomous, in fact they are connected by a continuum of practices, and both are needed. In most landscapes, maximizing conservation success will require more integration of paleobiology and conservation biology because in a rapidly changing world, a long-term perspective (encompassing at least millennia) is necessary to specify and select appropriate conservation targets and plans. Although adding this long-term perspective will be essential to sustain biodiversity and all of the facets of nature that humans need as we continue to rapidly change the world over the next few decades, maximizing the chances of success will also require dealing with the root causes of the conservation crisis: rapid growth of the human population, increasing per capita consumption especially in developed countries, and anthropogenic climate change that is rapidly pushing habitats outside the bounds experienced by today’s species. Fewer than 900 mountain gorillas are left in the world, and their continued existence depends upon the choices humans make, exemplifying the state of many species and ecosystems. Can conservation biology save biodiversity and all the aspects of nature that people need and value as 3 billion more of us are added to the planet by 2050, while climate continues to change to states outside the bounds that most of today’s ecosystems have ever experienced? Photo: E. A. Hadly, at Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change.

Dental functional traits of mammals resolve productivity in terrestrial ecosystems past and present

We have recently shown that rainfall, one of the main climatic determinants of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), can be robustly estimated from mean molar tooth crown height (hypsodonty) of mammalian herbivores. Here, we show that another functional trait of herbivore molar surfaces, longitudinal loph count, can be similarly used to extract reasonable estimates of rainfall but also of temperature, the other main climatic determinant of terrestrial NPP. Together, molar height and the number of longitudinal lophs explain 73 per cent of the global variation in terrestrial NPP today and resolve the main terrestrial biomes in bivariate space. We explain the functional interpretation of the relationships between dental function and climate variables in terms of long- and short-term demands. We also show how the spatially and temporally dense fossil record of terrestrial mammals can be used to investigate the relationship between biodiversity and productivity under changing climates in geological time. The placement of the fossil chronofaunas in biome space suggests that they most probably represent multiple palaeobiomes, at least some of which do not correspond directly to any biomes of todays world.

15 – Mammal Associations in the Pleistocene of Britain: Implications of Ecological Niche Modelling and a Method for Reconstructing Palaeoclimate

The climatic envelope of a species is a multivariate space whose axes are climatic variables and whose boundaries are the upper and lower values of those variables that occur within the species’ geographic range. If climate limits the geographic ranges of species, then the climate envelope can be used to predict which ones will occur together in a palaeofauna or to reconstruct palaeoclimate based on the species found in a fossil site. We evaluated these possibilities using ten living mammal species, four that are now found in cold climates (Alopex lagopus, Lemmus lemmus, Ovibos moschatus and Rangifer tarandus), three that are now found in warm climates (Crocuta crocuta, Panthera leo, and Hippopotamus amphibius), and three that are broadly spread through temperate climates (Arvicola terrestris, Cervus elaphus, and Sus scrofa). The WorldClim dataset of 19 climatic variables was used to characterize climate distributions for the 10 species. Out of the 45 possible pairings of the 10 species, 22 pairs have geographic ranges that do not overlap, but only 12 pairs have climatic envelopes that do not overlap. We looked at 22 palaeofaunas from the British Quaternary palaeofauna: 44% of them had species whose climatic envelopes do not overlap today (these are climatically ‘non-analogue’ or ‘disharmonious’ faunas), whereas 82% of the faunas had species whose geographic ranges do not overlap (these are geographically non-analogue faunas). The ‘index of disharmony’ (IR) was IR = 0.38 when geographic non-overlap was used as a criterion (higher than in similar aged North American faunas) but only IR = 0.12 when climatic non-overlap was used. A maximum-likelihood function was used to estimate the most probable climate for the 22 palaeofaunas based on the modern climatic distribution of the 10 species. The reconstructions were generally compatible with other quantitative estimates of palaeoclimate at the same sites.

THE IMPACT OF REGIONAL CLIMATE ON THE EVOLUTION OF MAMMALS: A CASE STUDY USING FOSSIL HORSES

One of the classic examples of faunal turnover in the fossil record is the Miocene transition from faunas dominated by anchitheriine horses with low‐crowned molar teeth to faunas with hipparionine horses characterized by high‐crowned teeth. The spread of hipparionine horses is associated with increased seasonality and the expansion of open habitats. It is generally accepted that anchitheriine horses did not display an evolutionary increase in tooth crown height prior to their extinction. Nevertheless, to test whether anchitheriines showed any changes interpretable as adaptation to local conditions, we analyzed molar teeth from multiple populations of Anchitherium in three dimensions. Our results show differences in tooth morphology that suggest incipient hypsodonty in Spain, the first region experiencing increasingly arid conditions in the early Miocene of Europe. Furthermore, analyses of tooth wear show that Spanish specimens cluster with present ungulates that eat foliage together with grasses and shrubs, whereas German specimens cluster with present‐day ungulates that eat mostly foliage. Taken together, even a taxon such as Anchitherium, with a long and successful history of forest adaptation, did respond to regional environmental changes in an adaptive manner.