Justin E. Babendreier

Evaluating uncertainty in integrated environmental models: A review of concepts and tools

[1] This paper reviews concepts for evaluating integrated environmental models and discusses a list of relevant software-based tools. A simplified taxonomy for sources of uncertainty and a glossary of key terms with ‘‘standard’’ definitions are provided in the context of integrated approaches to environmental assessment. These constructs provide a reference point for cataloging 65 different model evaluation tools. Each tool is described briefly (in the auxiliary material) and is categorized for applicability across seven thematic model evaluation methods. Ratings for citation count and software availability are also provided, and a companion Web site containing download links for tool software is introduced. The paper concludes by reviewing strategies for tool interoperability and offers guidance for both practitioners and tool developers.

Investigating uncertainty and sensitivity in integrated, multimedia environmental models: tools for FRAMES-3MRA

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRA modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU). The 3MRA model encompasses 966 multi-dimensional input variables, over 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. Design of SuperMUSE, a 215 GHz PC-based, Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described. Developed for 3MRA and extendable to other computer models, an accompanying platform-independent, Java-based parallel processing software toolset is also discussed. For 3MRA, comparison of stand-alone PC versus SuperMUSE simulation executions showed a parallel computing overhead of only 0.57 seconds/simulation, a relative cost increase of 0.7% over average model runtime. Parallel computing software tools represent a critical aspect of exploiting the capabilities of such modeling systems. The Java toolset developed here readily handled machine and job management tasks over the Windows cluster, and is currently capable of completing over 3 million 3MRA model simulations per month on SuperMUSE. Preliminary work is reported for an example uncertainty analysis of Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of various exposure pathways in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 facilities across the United States representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

Design of a component-based integrated environmental modeling framework

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) includes interdependent science-based components that comprise an appropriate software modeling system and are responsible for consuming and producing information as part of the system, but moving information from one component to another (i.e., interoperability) is the responsibility of the IEM software system. We describe and discuss the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES), a component-based IEM system, from the standpoint of software design requirements which define system functionalities. Design requirements were identified in a series of workshops, attended by IEM practitioners, and reported in the development of a number of IEM software systems. The requirements cover issues associated with standards, component connectivity, linkage protocols, system architecture and functionality, and web-based access, all of which facilitate the creation of plug & play components from stand-alone models through a series of software support tools and standards.

Building model analysis applications with the Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability (JUPITER) API

The open-source, public domain JUPITER (Joint Universal Parameter IdenTification and Evaluation of Reliability) API (Application Programming Interface) provides conventions and Fortran-90 modules to develop applications (computer programs) for analyzing process models. The input and output conventions allow application users to access various applications and the analysis methods they embody with a minimum of time and effort. Process models simulate, for example, physical, chemical, and (or) biological systems of interest using phenomenological, theoretical, or heuristic approaches. The types of model analyses supported by the JUPITER API include, but are not limited to, sensitivity analysis, data needs assessment, calibration, uncertainty analysis, model discrimination, and optimization. The advantages provided by the JUPITER API for users and programmers allow for rapid programming and testing of new ideas. Application-specific coding can be in languages other than the Fortran-90 of the API. This article briefly describes the capabilities and utility of the JUPITER API, lists existing applications, and uses UCODE_2005 as an example.