Justin Moat

Supporting Red List threat assessments with GeoCAT: geospatial conservation assessment tool

Abstract GeoCAT is an open source, browser based tool that performs rapid geospatial analysis to ease the process of Red Listing taxa. Developed to utilise spatially referenced primary occurrence data, the analysis focuses on two aspects of the geographic range of a taxon: the extent of occurrence (EOO) and the area of occupancy (AOO). These metrics form part of the IUCN Red List categories and criteria and have often proved challenging to obtain in an accurate, consistent and repeatable way. Within a familiar Google Maps environment, GeoCAT users can quickly and easily combine data from multiple sources such as GBIF, Flickr and Scratchpads as well as user generated occurrence data. Analysis is done with the click of a button and is visualised instantly, providing an indication of the Red List threat rating, subject to meeting the full requirements of the criteria. Outputs including the results, data and parameters used for analysis are stored in a GeoCAT file that can be easily reloaded or shared with collaborators. GeoCAT is a first step toward automating the data handling process of Red List assessing and provides a valuable hub from which further developments and enhancements can be spawned.

Scientific Foundations for an IUCN Red List of Ecosystems

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world’s ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity

Environmental energy and evolutionary rates in flowering plants

The latitudinal gradient in species richness is a pervasive feature of the living world, but its underlying causes remain unclear. We evaluated the hypothesis that environmental energy drives evolutionary rates and thereby diversification in flowering plants. We estimated energy levels across angiosperm family distributions in terms of evapotranspiration, temperature and UV radiation taken from satellite and climate databases. Using the most comprehensive DNA–based phylogenetic tree for angiosperms to date, analysis of 86 sister–family comparisons shows that molecular evolutionary rates have indeed been faster in high–energy regions, but that this is not an intermediate step between energy and diversity. Energy has strong, but independent effects on both species richness and molecular evolutionary rates.

Plant Diversity Hotspots in the Atlantic Coastal Forests of Brazil

Plant-diversity hotspots on a global scale are well established, but smaller local hotspots within these must be identified for effective conservation of plants at the global and local scales. We used the distributions of endemic and endemic-threatened species of Myrtaceae to indicate areas of plant diversity and conservation importance within the Atlantic coastal forests (Mata Atlântica) of Brazil. We applied 3 simple, inexpensive geographic information system (GIS) techniques to a herbarium specimen database: predictive species-distribution modeling (Maxent); complementarity analysis (DIVA-GIS); and mapping of herbarium specimen collection locations. We also considered collecting intensity, which is an inherent limitation of use of natural history records for biodiversity studies. Two separate areas of endemism were evident: the Serra do Mar mountain range from Paraná to Rio de Janeiro and the coastal forests of northern Espírito Santo and southern Bahia. We identified 12 areas of approximately 35 km(2) each as priority areas for conservation. These areas had the highest species richness and were highly threatened by urban and agricultural expansion. Observed species occurrences, species occurrences predicted from the model, and results of our complementarity analysis were congruent in identifying those areas with the most endemic species. These areas were then prioritized for conservation importance by comparing ecological data for each.

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.

Defining a role for herbarium data in Red List assessments: a case study of Plectranthus from eastern and southern tropical Africa

Red Lists are widely used to indicate species at risk of extinction. Specimen sheets in herbaria provide an important source of data relevant for Red List assessments. The aims of this paper are to establish which data can be sourced from specimen information to satisfy IUCN Red Data List criteria and to identify the specific criteria that can be used. Red List parameters are measured within a Geographical Information System (GIS), as this provides an objective and repeatable methodology which is less subjective than manual methods. Data used to explore this were gathered during the course of preparing a monograph on Plectranthus (Lamiaceae). Criteria relating to distribution (extent of occurrence, area of occupancy and fragmentation) and population profile (projected continuing decline and number of subpopulations) proved most suitable for assigning categories of threat. Estimates of mature individuals, generation length, population size, population reduction, extreme fluctuation and number of locations could not be derived from herbarium material without making inconsistent subjective decisions. In addition to comprehensively databased specimen information, extensive field knowledge is required to produce better estimates for assessing extinction risk. In order to enhance the usefulness of specimen information in the future, improvements in recording additional botanical data at the time of collection would be beneficial. Overall, herbaria provide a useful starting point for conservation-related work and can help to guide future work.

A GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF DISTRIBUTION, DIVERSITY, ENDEMISM, AND TAXONOMIC EFFORT IN THE RUBIACEAE 1

Abstract Analyses of distribution, diversity, endemism, and taxonomic effort for Rubiaceae are reported, based on queries from a World Rubiaceae Checklist database. Rubiaceae are widespread and occur in all major regions of the world except the Antarctic Continent, but are predominantly a group in the tropics with greatest diversity in low- to mid-altitude humid forests. A count of Rubiaceae species and genera is given (13,143 spp./611 genera), which confirms that this is the fourth largest angiosperm family. Psychotria L. is the largest genus in the Rubiaceae (1834 spp.) and the third largest angiosperm genus. Most genera (72%) have fewer than 10 species and 211 are monotypic. Calculation of relative species diversity and percentage endemism enables areas of high diversity and endemism to be enumerated, and identifies areas where further field collecting and taxonomic research are required. Endemism is generally high in Rubiaceae, which supports data from recent studies showing that many species have restricted distributions. Given the assumed ecologic sensitivity of Rubiaceae, in combination with a range of other factors including restricted distribution, we suggest that species in this family are particularly vulnerable to extinction. The rate at which new species are being described is inadequate; more resources are required before the diversity of Rubiaceae is satisfactorily enumerated.

Measuring the fate of plant diversity: towards a foundation for future monitoring and opportunities for urgent action

Vascular plants are often considered to be among the better known large groups of organisms, but gaps in the available baseline data are extensive, and recent estimates of total known (described) seed plant species range from 200 000 to 422 000. Of these, global assessments of conservation status using International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories and criteria are available for only approximately 10 000 species. In response to recommendations from the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to develop biodiversity indicators based on changes in the status of threatened species, and trends in the abundance and distribution of selected species, we examine how existing data, in combination with limited new data collection, can be used to maximum effect. We argue that future work should produce Red List Indices based on a representative subset of plant species so that the limited resources currently available are directed towards redressing taxonomic and geographical biases apparent in existing datasets. Sampling the data held in the worlds major herbaria, in combination with Geographical Information Systems techniques, can produce preliminary conservation assessments and help to direct selective survey work using existing field networks to verify distributions and gather population data. Such data can also be used to backcast threats and potential distributions through time. We outline an approach that could result in: (i) preliminary assessments of the conservation status of tens of thousands of species not previously assessed, (ii) significant enhancements in the coverage and representation of plant species on the IUCN Red List, and (iii) repeat and/or retrospective assessments for a significant proportion of these. This would result in more robust Sampled Red List Indices that can be defended as more representative of plant diversity as a whole; and eventually, comprehensive assessments at species level for one or more major families of angiosperms. The combined results would allow scientifically defensible generalizations about the current status of plant diversity by 2010 as well as tentative comments on trends. Together with other efforts already underway, this approach would establish a firmer basis for ongoing monitoring of the status of plant diversity beyond 2010 and a basis for comparison with the trend data available for vertebrates.

Green Plants in the Red: A Baseline Global Assessment for the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants.

Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question ‘How threatened are plants?’ is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world’s plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads) are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed.

Altered gene expression and ecological divergence in sibling allopolyploids of Dactylorhiza (Orchidaceae)

BackgroundHybridization and polyploidy are potent forces that have regularly stimulated plant evolution and adaptation. Dactylorhiza majalis s.s., D. traunsteineri s.l. and D. ebudensis are three allopolyploid species of a polyploid complex formed through unidirectional (and, in the first two cases, recurrent) hybridization between the widespread diploids D. fuchsii and D. incarnata. Differing considerably in geographical extent and ecological tolerance, the three allopolyploids together provide a useful system to explore genomic responses to allopolyploidization and reveal their role in adaptation to contrasting environments.ResultsAnalyses of cDNA-AFLPs show a significant increase in the range of gene expression of these allopolyploid lineages, demonstrating higher potential for phenotypic plasticity than is shown by either parent. Moreover, allopolyploid individuals express significantly more gene variants (including novel alleles) than their parents, providing clear evidence of increased biological complexity following allopolyploidization. More genetic mutations seem to have accumulated in the older D. majalis compared with the younger D. traunsteineri since their respective formation.ConclusionsMultiple origins of the polyploids contribute to differential patterns of gene expression with a distinct geographic structure. However, several transcripts conserved within each allopolyploid taxon differ between taxa, indicating that habitat preferences shape similar expression patterns in these independently formed tetraploids. Statistical signals separate several transcripts - some of them novel in allopolyploids - that appear correlated with adaptive traits and seem to play a role favouring the persistence of individuals in their native environments. In addition to stabilizing the allopolyploid genome, genetic and epigenetic alterations are key determinants of adaptive success of the new polyploid species after recurrent allopolyploidization events, potentially triggering reproductive isolation between the resulting lineages.