K. Olendrzynski

Soil sensitivity due to acid and heavy metal deposition in East Central Europe

Simultaneous soil acidification and deposition of heavy metals is a major concern for forest and agricultural soils of the Black Triangle region of East Central Europe including southern former East Germany, northern Bohemia of the Czech Republic, and southern Poland. The objective of this project was to develop historical and future projections of acid and heavy metal deposition to soils (As, Cd, Pb, Zn) and to produce a preliminary map of soil sensitivity to cadmium pollution and uptake by crops. Ultimately, we wish to assess the relative hazard and recovery times of soils to metals deposition in the region. Emission and deposition data bases obtained from several models developed at IIASA were linked using the Geographical Information System ARC/INFO to produce soil maps of sensitivity to cadmium mobility based on metals deposition, soil type, soil texture, organic matter content, and acid deposition. RAINS 6.1 (Alcamo et al., 1990) was utilized to produce maps of acid deposition for EMEP grids (150 km x 150 km). The largest amount of acid load is deposited in southern East Germany. Sulfur deposition in that area was 10–12 gS/m2/yr in 1990, and S+N deposition exceeded 8000 eq/ha/yr. But the “hot spot” for metals deposition is further to the east, in the Silesia area of southern Poland. The TRACE2 trajectory model of Alcamo, Bartnicki, and Olendrzynski (1992) was used to estimate cumulative metals deposition since 1955 with scenarios to 2010. Pb has improved over Europe since 1970 when depositions in the Ruhr River Valley of West Germany exceeded 60 mg/m2/yr. But cadmium deposition in southern Poland (Katowice and Krakow) has now accumulated to 60–70 mg/m2 by atmospheric deposition alone. During base case simulations from 1955–87, approximately 1.8 mg/kg Pb and 0.12 mg/kg Cd have been added to the mixed plow-layer of ∼30 cm. If these emissions continue indefinitely, the accumulation of metals will become problematic for agriculture and the food chain.

Computing heavy metals in Europe's atmosphere—I. Model development and testing

Abstract This paper presents the development of the TRACE model (TRace toxic Air Concentrations in Europe) which computers the air concentration and deposition of various heavy metals (As, Cd, Pb, Zn) on a European scale. TRACE is an improved climatological-type model in that (1) travel time is computed from an empirical function rather than from an assumed constant velocity, (2) the model tends to conserve mass, (3) the irregularity of spatial deposition patterns is captured, and (4) parameters are objectively determined. The dry deposition velocity is spatially varying, and is computed with a dry deposition model as a function of “local” u ∗ , z o , together with an assumed characteristic particle size distribution. The model has been used to compute levels of heavy metals for 1978–1985 throughout Europe. Calculations agree with As and Pb observations with a factor of two, and underestimate Cd and Zn observations. Using the model it was estimated that wet deposition exceeds dry deposition in most of central Europe. The mean residence time of the mass of As, Cd, Pb and Zn in Europes lower atmosphere is estimated to be about 64h and for Pb, 96 h.

Modeling Heavy Metals in Europe’s Atmosphere: A Combined Trajectory-Climatologic Approach

The long range transport of heavy metals in the atmosphere leads to low but steady deposition of heavy metals into soils, lakes and forests in Europe. Although their atmospheric fluxes are low, these metals can accumulate in the detritus of soils. This accumulated metal may be mobilized by acidification and may then disturb soil organisms, which in turn can lead to disturbance of organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling (Ottar et al., 1989). Circumstantial evidence from wind sector analysis and trajectory modeling (Pacyna et al., 1984), and receptor modeling (Stevens et al., 1984) indicates that the deposition of metals may originate from sources many hundreds of kilometers away. It is thought that large particles (> 10 μ) settle out in the vicinity of the stacks but stack gases containing metals condense into small particles which then coalesce within hours into particles with diameters of 0.1 to 1.0 μ; particles of this size are too coarse to be efficiently removed by brownian diffusion yet too small to settle out by gravity. Hence these metal particles may travel long distances before being removed by precipitation or dry deposition.

Grid point surface air temperature calculations with a fast turnaround: Combining the results of IMAGE and a GCM

This paper describes a methodology that combines the outputs of (1) the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE Version 1.0) of the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) (given a greenhouse gas emission policy, this model can estimate the effects such as global mean surface air temperature change for a wide variety of policies) and (2) ECHAM-1/LSG, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. The combination enables one to calculate grid point surface air temperature changes for different scenarios with a turnaround time that is much quicker than that for a GCM. The methodology is based upon a geographical pattern of the ratio of grid point temperature change to global mean values during a certain period of the simulation, as calculated by ECHAM-1/LSG for the 1990 Scenarios A and D of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A procedure, based upon signal-to noise ratios in the outputs, enabled us to estimate where we have confidence in the methodology; this is at about 23% to 83% of the total of 2,048 grid points, depending upon the scenario and the decade in the simulation. It was found that the methodology enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of the GCM-predicted grid point temperature changes. These estimates were within 0.5K (0.25K) throughout the 100 years of a given simulation for at least 79% (74%) of the grid points where we are confident in applying the methodology. The temperature ratio pattern from Scenario A enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of temperature change within 0.5K (0.25K) in Scenario D for at least 88% (68%) of the grid points where we have confidence; indicating that the methodology is transferable to other scenarios. Tests with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM indicated, however, that a temperature ratio pattern may have to be developed for each GCM. The methodology, using a temperature ratio pattern from the 1990 IPCC Scenario A and involving IMAGE, gave gridded surface air temperature patterns for the 1992 IPCC radiative-forcing Scenarios C and E and the RIVM emission Scenario B; none of these scenarios has been simulated by ECHAM-1/LSG. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming.

Long-Term Atmospheric Transport and Deposition of Heavy Metals in Central Europe

The so-called “Black Triangle” (BT) region covers the southern part of the former German Democratic Republic, south-western Poland and the northern part of Bohemia (Czech Republic). The BT, together with the heavily industrialized Upper Silesia region in southern Poland (BTUS), is the most polluted part of Europe, mainly due to acidic compounds and heavy metals. Continuous accumulations of cadmium, lead and zinc in soils may eventually lead to serious environmental consequences. Triggered by increased soil acidification, heavy metals may become mobilized, thus leading to plant and ground water contamination (the so-called “Chemical Time Bomb”). Acid deposition in the BTUS region has been continuously monitored in the framework of the EMEP program. However, up to now, not much is known about cumulative atmospheric deposition of heavy metals. In this study, we calculated long-term atmospheric deposition of Cd and Pb to the BTUS region (and to entire Europe) during the 1955–1987 period.

Results from a Climatological Model of Heavy Metals in Europe’s Atmosphere

There is increasing observational evidence that heavy metals’ air emissions cause not only local contamination, but also travel long distances in Europe and contribute to widespread, although low-level, contamination of the environment (e.g. Pacyna, et al, 1984; Ottar, et al, 1989). The TRACE model (TRB.cetoxic Air Concentrations in fftirope) has been developed to compute the long range transport of various heavy metals (As, Cd, Pb, and Zn) on the European-scale. A preliminary version of this model was reported in Alcamo, et al (1991a) and model refinements and application are given in Alcamo, et al (1991b) and Bartnicki et al (1991).