Kaisa Simola

Application of stochastic filtering for lifetime prediction

This paper introduces a stochastic filtering modeling approach for predicting the remaining lifetime of a component based on information on the stochastic degradation process and uncertain condition monitoring measurements. The model is illustrated by a case study, where the degradation is assumed to be a simplified fatigue crack growth process. The model accounts for uncertainties in both degradation process and condition measurements in a sound way. If completed with information on costs of monitoring, failure and replacement, such model could be used in optimizing both the condition monitoring intervals and, e.g. the replacement time for the component.

Models for non-destructive inspection data

Abstract This paper describes the use of statistical models for the evaluation of the reliability of non-destructive inspections. Probability models for the uncertainty in the flaw size determination and the flaw detection are constructed. The flaw sizing models are based on the assumption that the measured and true flaw sizes are related in a simple way: two models based on logarithmic and logit transformations of the flaw sizes are considered. The probability of flaw detection is assumed to depend on the flaw size either through logarithmic or logit transformation. To illustrate the use of these models, they have been applied to flaw sizing data and flaw detection frequency data. Furthermore, models for Bayesian updating of flaw size distributions were developed. In this connection, models for updating the size distribution of a single flaw as well as for handling multiple flaws are introduced.

Comparison of approaches for estimating pipe rupture frequencies for risk-informed in-service inspections

Abstract This paper describes the comparative study of two approaches to estimate pipe leak and rupture frequencies for piping. One method is based on a probabilistic fracture mechanistic model while the other one is based on statistical estimation of rupture frequencies from a large database. In order to be able to compare the approaches and their results, the rupture frequencies of some selected welds have been estimated using both of these methods. This paper highlights the differences both in methods, input data, need and use of plant specific information and need of expert judgement. The study focuses on one specific degradation mechanism, namely the intergranular stress corrosion cracking. This is the major degradation mechanism in old stainless steel piping in BWR environment, and its growth is influenced by material properties, stresses and water chemistry.

Bayesian models and ageing indicators for analysing random changes in failure occurrence

Abstract The paper introduces ageing models of repairable components based on Bayesian approach. Models for the development of both failure rate and the probability of failure on demand are presented. The models are based on the assumption that the failure probability or rate has random changes at certain time points. This is modelled by assuming that the successive transformed failure probabilities (or rates) follow a Gaussian random walk. The model is compared with a constant increment model, in which the possible ageing trend is monotone. Monte-Carlo Markov Chain sampling is applied in the determination of the posterior distributions. Ageing indicators based on the model parameters are introduced, and the application of these models is illustrated with case studies.

A study on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction achieved by non-destructive inspection

Leakages and ruptures of piping components lead to reduction or loss of the pressure retaining capability of the system, and thus contribute to the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. In-service inspection (ISI) aims at verifying that defects are not present in components of the pressure boundary or, if defects are present, ensuring that these are detected before they affect the safe operation of the plant. Reliability estimates of piping are needed e.g., in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI (RI-ISI) applications, and other structural reliability assessments. Probabilistic fracture mechanics models can account for ISI reliability, but a quantitative estimate for the latter is needed. This is normally expressed in terms of probability of detection (POD) curves, which correlate the probability of detecting a flaw with flaw size. A detailed POD curve is often difficult (or practically impossible) to obtain. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (but reasonably conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. This paper summarises the results of a study on the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of analysis cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.