Kaj M. Hansen

Past, Present, and Future Controls on Levels of Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Global Environment

Understanding the legacy of persistent organic pollutants requires studying the transition from primary to secondary source control.

Global distribution of linear and cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes in air.

The global distribution of linear and cyclic volatile methyl silxoanes (VMS) was investigated at 20 sites worldwide, including 5 locations in the Arctic, using sorbent-impregnated polyurethane foam (SIP) disk passive air samplers. Cyclic VMS are currently being considered for regulation because they are high production volume chemicals that are potentially persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic. Linear and cyclic VMS (including L3, L4, L5, D3, D4, D5, and D6) were analyzed for in air at all urban, background, and Arctic sites. Concentrations of D3 and D4 are significantly correlated, as are D5 and D6, which suggests different sources for these two pairs of compounds. Elevated concentrations of D3 and D4 on the West coast of North America and at high elevation sites suggest these sites are influenced by trans-Pacific transport, while D5 and D6 have elevated concentrations in urban areas, which is most likely due to personal care product use. Measured concentrations of D5 were compared to modeled concentrations generated using both the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) and the Berkeley-Trent Global Contaminant Fate Model (BETR Global). The correlation coefficients (r) between the measured and modeled results were 0.73 and 0.58 for the DEHM and BETR models, respectively. Agreement between measurements and models indicate that the sources, transport pathways, and sinks of D5 in the global atmosphere are fairly well understood.

Concentrations and fate of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) in the atmosphere

Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D(5)) is a volatile compound used in personal care products that is released to the atmosphere in large quantities. Although D(5) is currently under consideration for regulation, there have been no field investigations of its atmospheric fate. We employed a recently developed, quality assured method to measure D(5) concentration in ambient air at a rural site in Sweden. The samples were collected with daily resolution between January and June 2009. The D(5) concentration ranged from 0.3 to 9 ng m(-3), which is 1-3 orders of magnitude lower than previous reports. The measured data were compared with D(5) concentrations predicted using an atmospheric circulation model that included both OH radical and D(5) chemistry. The model was parametrized using emissions estimates and physical chemical properties determined in laboratory experiments. There was good agreement between the measured and modeled D(5) concentrations. The results show that D(5) is clearly subject to long-range atmospheric transport, but that it is also effectively removed from the atmosphere via phototransformation. Atmospheric deposition has little influence on the atmospheric fate. The good agreement between the model predictions and the field observations indicates that there is a good understanding of the major factors governing D(5) concentrations in the atmosphere.

Occurrence and Seasonality of Cyclic Volatile Methyl Siloxanes in Arctic Air

Cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMS) are present in technical applications and personal care products. They are predicted to undergo long-range atmospheric transport, but measurements of cVMS in remote areas remain scarce. An active air sampling method for decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) was further evaluated to include hexamethylcyclotrisiloxane (D3), octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6). Air samples were collected at the Zeppelin observatory in the remote Arctic (79° N, 12° E) with an average sampling time of 81 ± 23 h in late summer (August-October) and 25 ± 10 h in early winter (November-December) 2011. The average concentrations of D5 and D6 in late summer were 0.73 ± 0.31 and 0.23 ± 0.17 ng/m(3), respectively, and 2.94 ± 0.46 and 0.45 ± 0.18 ng/m(3) in early winter, respectively. Detection of D5 and D6 in the Arctic atmosphere confirms their long-range atmospheric transport. The D5 measurements agreed well with predictions from a Eulerian atmospheric chemistry-transport model, and seasonal variability was explained by the seasonality in the OH radical concentrations. These results extend our understanding of the atmospheric fate of D5 to high latitudes, but question the levels of D3 and D4 that have previously been measured at Zeppelin with passive air samplers.

Long-Term Calculations with a Comprehensive Nested Hemispheric Air Pollution Transport Model

The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) developed at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) in Denmark has been applied for numerous studies of air pollution. DEHM was originally developed with the main purpose of investigating the atmospheric transport of pollutants to the Arctic region, but is now also applied for more local scale environmental problems. The DEHM model has therefore recently been developed with nesting capabilities, which allows for a large mother domain (the Northern Hemisphere) as well as one or two nested domains each with a three times higher horizontal resolution over a limited area. The chemistry version of the model (DEHM-REGINA) has recently been run for a period of 14 years with a nested domain covering Europe and driven by meteorological data from the nested MM5 model. A chemical scheme with 60 species is included and the long-term calculations were made possible due to the application of a new low-cost Linux cluster system recently implemented at NERI. Examples from the validation of the model show that the observed variations and tendencies on both daily to seasonal and longer time scales are well captured for both primary and secondary air pollution components.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry–transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

Comprehensive Atmospheric Modeling of Reactive Cyclic Siloxanes and Their Oxidation Products

Cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMSs) are important components in personal care products that transport and react in the atmosphere. Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5), dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6), and their gas-phase oxidation products have been incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Gas-phase oxidation products, as the precursor to secondary organic aerosol from this compound class, were included to quantify the maximum potential for aerosol formation from gas-phase reactions with OH. Four 1-month periods were modeled to quantify typical concentrations, seasonal variability, spatial patterns, and vertical profiles. Typical model concentrations showed parent compounds were highly dependent on population density as cities had monthly averaged peak D5 concentrations up to 432ngm−3. Peak oxidized D5 concentrations were significantly less, up to 9ngm−3, and were located downwind of major urban areas. Model results were compared to available measurements and previous simulation results. Seasonal variation was analyzed and differences in seasonal influences were observed between urban and rural locations. Parent compound concentrations in urban and peri-urban locations were sensitive to transport factors, while parent compounds in rural areas and oxidized product concentrations were influenced by large-scale seasonal variability in OH.

Atmospheric Pollution Research on Greenland

Danish studies in the Arctic atmosphere were almost all carried out on Greenland. There were not any specific programmes within IPY but activities were performed in the framework of Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Financed from Denmark by means from DANCEA. A long series of studies in other spheres than the atmosphere have also been carried out but they will not be described here as they are beyond the scope of this chapter.