Kamil Khalid

Forecasting Natural Rubber Price In Malaysia Using Arima

This paper contains introduction, materials and methods, results and discussions, conclusions and references. Based on the title mentioned, high volatility of the price of natural rubber nowadays will give the significant risk to the producers, traders, consumers, and others parties involved in the production of natural rubber. To help them in making decisions, forecasting is needed to predict the price of natural rubber. The main objective of the research is to forecast the upcoming price of natural rubber by using the reliable statistical method. The data are gathered from Malaysia Rubber Board which the data are from January 2000 until December 2015. In this research, average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) will be forecast by using Box-Jenkins approach. Time series plot is used to determine the pattern of the data. The data have trend pattern which indicates the data is non-stationary data and the data need to be transformed. By using the Box-Jenkins method, the best fit model for the time series data is ARIMA (1, 1, 0) which this model satisfy all the criteria needed. Hence, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best fitted model and the model will be used to forecast the average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) for twelve months ahead.

Modified Multi Prime RSA Cryptosystem

RSA [1] is one of the mostly used cryptosystem in securing data and information. Though, it has been recently discovered that RSA has some weaknesses and in advance technology, RSA is believed to be inefficient especially when it comes to decryption. Thus, a new algorithm called Multi prime RSA, an extended version of the standard RSA is studied. Then, a modification is made to the Multi prime RSA where another keys is shared secretly between the receiver and the sender to increase the securerity. As in RSA, the methodology used for modified Multi-prime RSA also consists of three phases; 1. Key Generation in which the secret and public keys are generated and published. In this phase, the secrecy is improved by adding more prime numbers and addition of secret keys. 2. Encryption of the message using the public and secret keys given. 3. Decryption of the secret message using the secret key generated. For the decryption phase, a method called Chinese Remainder Theorem is used which helps to fasten the computation. Since Multi prime RSA use more than two prime numbers, the algorithm is more efficient and secure when compared to the standard RSA. Furthermore, in modified Multi prime RSA another secret key is introduced to increase the obstacle to the attacker. Therefore, it is strongly believed that this new algorithm is better and can be an alternative to the RSA.

A Mathematical Model Development for the Lateral Collapse of Octagonal Tubes

Many researches has been done on the lateral collapse of tube. However, the previous researches only focus on cylindrical and square tubes. Then a research has been done discovering the collapse behaviour of hexagonal tube and the mathematic model of the deformation behaviour had been developed [8]. The purpose of this research is to study the lateral collapse behaviour of symmetric octagonal tubes and hence to develop a mathematical model of the collapse behaviour of these tubes. For that, a predictive mathematical model was developed and a finite element analysis procedure was conducted for the lateral collapse behaviour of symmetric octagonal tubes. Lastly, the mathematical model was verified by using the finite element analysis simulation results. It was discovered that these tubes performed different deformation behaviour than the cylindrical tube. Symmetric octagonal tubes perform 2 phases of elastic - plastic deformation behaviour patterns. The mathematical model had managed to show the fundamental of the deformation behaviour of octagonal tubes. However, further studies need to be conducted in order to further improve on the proposed mathematical model.

MADM For Solving Fourth-Order ODE

In this paper, we present the new reliable modification of Adomian decomposition method for solving fourth order ordinary deferential equations. The modification of Adomian decomposition method is an effective procedure to be applied in the singular or nonsingular problems within given the initial value problem. The results are compared with the existing exact or numerical method. Thus, the Modification of Adomian decomposition method are found to converge very quickly and more accurate compared to Adomian decomposition method. Several examples are given to show the ability and efficiency of the proposed method.

ADM For Solving Linear Second-Order Fredholm Integro-Differential Equations

In this paper, we apply Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM) as numerically analyse linear second-order Fredholm Integro-differential Equations. The approximate solutions of the problems are calculated by Maple package. Some numerical examples have been considered to illustrate the ADM for solving this equation. The results are compared with the existing exact solution. Thus, the Adomian decomposition method can be the best alternative method for solving linear second-order Fredholm Integro-Differential equation. It converges to the exact solution quickly and in the same time reduces computational work for solving the equation. The result obtained by ADM shows the ability and efficiency for solving these equations.

An Application of Robust Method in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Credit Card Debt

Credit card is a convenient alternative replaced cash or cheque, and it is essential component for electronic and internet commerce. In this study, the researchers attempt to determine the relationship and significance variables between credit card debt and demographic variables such as age, household income, education level, years with current employer, years at current address, debt to income ratio and other debt. The provided data covers 850 customers information. There are three methods that applied to the credit card debt data which are multiple linear regression (MLR) models, MLR models with least quartile difference (LQD) method and MLR models with mean absolute deviation method. After comparing among three methods, it is found that MLR model with LQD method became the best model with the lowest value of mean square error (MSE). According to the final model, it shows that the years with current employer, years at current address, household income in thousands and debt to income ratio are positively associated with the amount of credit debt. Meanwhile variables for age, level of education and other debt are negatively associated with amount of credit debt. This study may serve as a reference for the bank company by using robust methods, so that they could better understand their options and choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference regarding to the credit card debt.

Factors Affecting Road Traffic Accident in Batu Pahat, Johor, Malaysia

A road traffic accident resulted from the combination of factors related to the few components of the system involving environment, roads, road users, vehicles and the interaction between those systems. Road traffic accident (RTA) in Malaysia recorded as the highest fatality rate (per 100,000 population) among the ASEAN countries. In 2016, more than half of million cases accident recorded with more than 7,000 people were killed. Therefore, the RTA is one of the most critical issue in Malaysia even become the worldwide burden to authority. Generally, driving is a complex process which involves movement of a vehicle by either a computer or human controller. However, failure to control and coordinate will contribute to an accident. The objective of this study is to identify the pattern of accident in Johor Malaysia and to examine the relationship between the number of accident and the types of vehicles and roads. The results could help the government to recognise the different patterns, types of vehicles and roads that show major factors in the increasing of road traffic accident in Malaysia.

CONTINUOUS APPROXIMATION OF 3 STEPWISE FUNCTIONS IN THE NON-STANDARD OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEM

A current ideal control issue in the region of financial aspects has numerical properties that do not fall into the standard optimal control problem detailing. In our concern, the state condition at the final time, y(T ) = z, is free and obscure, and furthermore, the integrand is a piecewise consistent capacity of the obscure esteem y(T ). This is not a standard optimal control problem and cannot be settled utilizing Pontryagin’s minimum principle with the standard limit conditions at the final time. In the standard issue, a free final state y(T ) yields an important limit condition p(T ) = 0, where p(t) is the costate. Since the integrand is a component of y(T ), the new fundamental condition is that y(T ) yield is equivalent to a specific necessary consistent capacity of z. We present a continuous approximation of the piecewise consistent integrand function through hyperbolic tangent approach and tackle a case utilizing a C++ shooting method. The limiting free y(T ) value is computed in an external circle emphasis through the golden section method.