Karen M. Thorne

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Abstract Thorne, K.M.; Takekawa, J.Y., and Elliott-Fisk, D.L., 2012. Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: A case study from a highly urbanized estuary. Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Collaborative decision-analytic framework to maximize resilience of tidal marshes to climate change

ABSTRACT. Decision makers that are responsible for stewardship of natural resources face many challenges, which are complicatedby uncertainty about impacts from climate change, expanding human development, and intensifying land uses. A systematic processfor evaluating the social and ecological risks, trade-offs, and cobenefits associated with future changes is critical to maximize resilienceand conserve ecosystem services. This is particularly true in coastal areas where human populations and landscape conversion areincreasing, and where intensifying storms and sea-level rise pose unprecedented threats to coastal ecosystems. We applied collaborativedecision analysis with a diverse team of stakeholders who preserve, manage, or restore tidal marshes across the San Francisco Bayestuary, California, USA, as a case study. Specifically, we followed a structured decision-making approach, and we using expert judgmentdeveloped alternative management strategies to increase the capacity and adaptability to manage tidal marsh resilience while consideringuncertainties through 2050. Because sea-level rise projections are relatively confident to 2050, we focused on uncertainties regardingintensity and frequency of storms and funding. Elicitation methods allowed us to make predictions in the absence of fully compatiblemodels and to assess short- and long-term trade-offs. Specifically we addressed two questions. (1) Can collaborative decision analysislead to consensus among a diverse set of decision makers responsible for environmental stewardship and faced with uncertainties aboutclimate change, funding, and stakeholder values? (2) What is an optimal strategy for the conservation of tidal marshes, and what strategyis robust to the aforementioned uncertainties? We found that when taking this approach, consensus was reached among the stakeholdersabout the best management strategies to maintain tidal marsh integrity. A Bayesian decision network revealed that a strategy consideringsea-level rise and storms explicitly in wetland restoration planning and designs was optimal, and it was robust to uncertainties aboutmanagement effectiveness and budgets. We found that strategies that avoided explicitly accounting for future climate change had thelowest expected performance based on input from the team. Our decision-analytic framework is sufficiently general to offer an adaptabletemplate, which can be modified for use in other areas that include a diverse and engaged stakeholder group.Key Words:

U.S. Pacific coastal wetland resilience and vulnerability to sea-level rise

A comprehensive field and modeling study indicates vulnerability of tidal wetlands to sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast. We used a first-of-its-kind comprehensive scenario approach to evaluate both the vertical and horizontal response of tidal wetlands to projected changes in the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) across 14 estuaries along the Pacific coast of the continental United States. Throughout the U.S. Pacific region, we found that tidal wetlands are highly vulnerable to end-of-century submergence, with resulting extensive loss of habitat. Using higher-range SLR scenarios, all high and middle marsh habitats were lost, with 83% of current tidal wetlands transitioning to unvegetated habitats by 2110. The wetland area lost was greater in California and Oregon (100%) but still severe in Washington, with 68% submerged by the end of the century. The only wetland habitat remaining at the end of the century was low marsh under higher-range SLR rates. Tidal wetland loss was also likely under more conservative SLR scenarios, including loss of 95% of high marsh and 60% of middle marsh habitats by the end of the century. Horizontal migration of most wetlands was constrained by coastal development or steep topography, with just two wetland sites having sufficient upland space for migration and the possibility for nearly 1:1 replacement, making SLR threats particularly high in this region and generally undocumented. With low vertical accretion rates and little upland migration space, Pacific coast tidal wetlands are at imminent risk of submergence with projected rates of rapid SLR.

Inundation, Vegetation, and Sediment Effects on Litter Decomposition in Pacific Coast Tidal Marshes

The cycling and sequestration of carbon are important ecosystem functions of estuarine wetlands that may be affected by climate change. We conducted experiments across a latitudinal and climate gradient of tidal marshes in the northeast Pacific to evaluate the effects of climate- and vegetation-related factors on litter decomposition. We manipulated tidal exposure and litter type in experimental mesocosms at two sites and used variation across marsh landscapes at seven sites to test for relationships between decomposition and marsh elevation, soil temperature, vegetation composition, litter quality, and sediment organic content. A greater than tenfold increase in manipulated tidal inundation resulted in small increases in decomposition of roots and rhizomes of two species, but no significant change in decay rates of shoots of three other species. In contrast, across the latitudinal gradient, decomposition rates of Salicornia pacifica litter were greater in high marsh than in low marsh. Rates were not correlated with sediment temperature or organic content, but were associated with plant assemblage structure including above-ground cover, species composition, and species richness. Decomposition rates also varied by litter type; at two sites in the Pacific Northwest, the grasses Deschampsia cespitosa and Distichlis spicata decomposed more slowly than the forb S. pacifica. Our data suggest that elevation gradients and vegetation structure in tidal marshes both affect rates of litter decay, potentially leading to complex spatial patterns in sediment carbon dynamics. Climate change may thus have direct effects on rates of decomposition through increased inundation from sea-level rise and indirect effects through changing plant community composition.

Author Correction: Accuracy and Precision of Tidal Wetland Soil Carbon Mapping in the Conterminous United States

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Vertical Zonation and Niche Breadth of Tidal Marsh Plants Along the Northeast Pacific Coast

The distribution patterns of sessile organisms in coastal intertidal habitats typically exhibit vertical zonation, but little is known about variability in zonation among sites or species at larger spatial scales. Data on such heterogeneity could inform mechanistic understanding of factors affecting species distributions as well as efforts to assess and manage coastal species and habitat vulnerability to sea-level rise. Using data on the vertical distribution of common plant species at 12 tidal marshes across the US Pacific coast, we examined heterogeneity in patterns of zonation to test whether distributions varied by site, species, or latitude. Interspecific zonation was evident at most sites, but the vertical niches of co-occurring common species often overlapped considerably. The median elevation of most species varied across marshes, with site-specific differences in marsh elevation profiles more important than differences in latitude that reflect regional climate gradients. Some common species consistently inhabited lower or higher elevations relative to other species, but others varied among sites. Vertical niche breadth varied more than twofold among species. These results indicate that zonation varies by both site and species at the regional scale, and highlight the potential importance of local marsh elevation profiles to plant vertical distributions. Furthermore, they suggest that coastal foundation species such as marsh plants may differ in their vulnerability to sea-level rise by being restricted to specific elevation zones or by occurring in narrow vertical niches.

Sea‐level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Beldings savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.

Erratum to: Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes

Author(s): Rosencranz, Jordan A; Ganju, Neil K; Ambrose, Richard F; Brosnahan, Sandra M; Dickhudt, Patrick J; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; MacDonald, Glen M; Takekawa, John Y; Thorne, Karen M

Tidal Marsh Susceptibility to Sea-Level Rise: Importance of Local-Scale Models

Abstract Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting...