Kevin J. Buffington

U.S. Pacific coastal wetland resilience and vulnerability to sea-level rise

A comprehensive field and modeling study indicates vulnerability of tidal wetlands to sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast. We used a first-of-its-kind comprehensive scenario approach to evaluate both the vertical and horizontal response of tidal wetlands to projected changes in the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) across 14 estuaries along the Pacific coast of the continental United States. Throughout the U.S. Pacific region, we found that tidal wetlands are highly vulnerable to end-of-century submergence, with resulting extensive loss of habitat. Using higher-range SLR scenarios, all high and middle marsh habitats were lost, with 83% of current tidal wetlands transitioning to unvegetated habitats by 2110. The wetland area lost was greater in California and Oregon (100%) but still severe in Washington, with 68% submerged by the end of the century. The only wetland habitat remaining at the end of the century was low marsh under higher-range SLR rates. Tidal wetland loss was also likely under more conservative SLR scenarios, including loss of 95% of high marsh and 60% of middle marsh habitats by the end of the century. Horizontal migration of most wetlands was constrained by coastal development or steep topography, with just two wetland sites having sufficient upland space for migration and the possibility for nearly 1:1 replacement, making SLR threats particularly high in this region and generally undocumented. With low vertical accretion rates and little upland migration space, Pacific coast tidal wetlands are at imminent risk of submergence with projected rates of rapid SLR.

Effects of wetland management on carrying capacity of diving ducks and shorebirds in a coastal estuary

Abstract With global loss of natural wetlands, managed wetlands increasingly support energy requirements for wintering shorebirds and waterfowl. Despite numerous studies of avian bioenergetics in freshwater systems, less is known of the energetic capacity of estuarine systems. In San Francisco Bay, managed saline ponds converted from former commercial salt evaporation ponds form part of the largest wetland restoration project on the Pacific coast of North America. A daily-ration model was applied to assess carrying capacity for diving ducks and shorebirds during four winter seasons (2007–2010) in seasonal and circulation ponds, each in two salinity classes. Diving ducks comprised an estimated 35,450 ± 1,559 ( ± SE) in average years and 45,458 ± 1,653 in peak years with > 95% in circulation ponds. Shorebirds comprised 64,253 ± 14,838 ( ± SE) in average years and 108,171 ± 4,854 in peak years with > 64% in seasonal ponds. Macroinvertebrate energy density was highest in mesohaline (5–30 ppt) circulation ponds and lowest in seasonal ponds for both guilds. Energy requirements for diving ducks in mesohaline followed by low-hyperhaline (30–80 ppt) circulation ponds were mostly met by available prey energy. Available energy for shorebirds was substantially less than they required in seasonal ponds but exceeded their needs in mesohaline circulation ponds. Mesohaline circulation ponds supported 9,443 ± 1,649 ( ± SE) shorebird use-days·ha-1 of accessible habitat and 2,297 ± 402 diving duck use-days·ha-1 of accessible habitat, twice the capacity of low-hyperhaline circulation ponds and greater than five times that of seasonal ponds for both guilds. Our results indicated that reducing salinity to mesohaline levels and altering water depth to increase accessibility substantially increased energy available for these species in estuarine managed ponds.

Inundation, Vegetation, and Sediment Effects on Litter Decomposition in Pacific Coast Tidal Marshes

The cycling and sequestration of carbon are important ecosystem functions of estuarine wetlands that may be affected by climate change. We conducted experiments across a latitudinal and climate gradient of tidal marshes in the northeast Pacific to evaluate the effects of climate- and vegetation-related factors on litter decomposition. We manipulated tidal exposure and litter type in experimental mesocosms at two sites and used variation across marsh landscapes at seven sites to test for relationships between decomposition and marsh elevation, soil temperature, vegetation composition, litter quality, and sediment organic content. A greater than tenfold increase in manipulated tidal inundation resulted in small increases in decomposition of roots and rhizomes of two species, but no significant change in decay rates of shoots of three other species. In contrast, across the latitudinal gradient, decomposition rates of Salicornia pacifica litter were greater in high marsh than in low marsh. Rates were not correlated with sediment temperature or organic content, but were associated with plant assemblage structure including above-ground cover, species composition, and species richness. Decomposition rates also varied by litter type; at two sites in the Pacific Northwest, the grasses Deschampsia cespitosa and Distichlis spicata decomposed more slowly than the forb S. pacifica. Our data suggest that elevation gradients and vegetation structure in tidal marshes both affect rates of litter decay, potentially leading to complex spatial patterns in sediment carbon dynamics. Climate change may thus have direct effects on rates of decomposition through increased inundation from sea-level rise and indirect effects through changing plant community composition.

Author Correction: Accuracy and Precision of Tidal Wetland Soil Carbon Mapping in the Conterminous United States

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Sea‐level rise, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Beldings savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.

Tidal Marsh Susceptibility to Sea-Level Rise: Importance of Local-Scale Models

Abstract Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting...