Karl Kaltenthaler

Europeans and their money: Explaining public support for the common European currency

Using public opinion surveys conducted in the member states of the European Union, this paper seeks to provide a systematic understanding of public support for the EMU project and European-level monetary policy authority. We develop models of support for EU monetary policy that incorporate a utilitarian component and elements of multilevel governance that is emerging within the EU.These models are tested at the aggregate level of survey respondents. The results show that variations in attitudes to the common currency are driven by collectively-based considerations of the costs and benefits associated with the common currency project as well as the interaction of European-level politics and the domestic politics of the member states.

Explaining Latin American economic integration: the case of Mercosur

This paper develops and tests explanations of the motivations that drove the process of economic integration known as Mercosur (Southern Cone Common Market). The hypotheses tested are those that focus on elite considerations of geo-political, political economic and domestic politics factors when deciding to participate in international economic integration. We find that policy elite in Mercosur member states have been primarily driven by domestic political considerations when they have furthered the integration process. This leads to the conclusion that Mercosur is not likely to develop the kinds of supranational governance institutions present in the European Union, as policy elites in Mercosur member states desire to maintain a great deal of domestic policy autonomy.

Accountability and Independent Central Banks: Europeans and Distrust of the European Central Bank

This article explores whether Europeans distrust the European Central Bank (ECB) because they dislike its policies or think they cannot control the institution. Distrust of the ECB is a function of individuals believing the bank cannot be counted on to fulfill the duties that Europeans have assigned it.

German Interests in European Monetary Integration

This article explores the sources of the German govermnent’s position on European monetary integration since the first attempt at monetary union. I argue that German policy on European monetary integration was, until after EMU, driven by German foreign policy elites’ perception that integration could be used to achieve their primary geo-political goal, embedding Germany in European institutions to dismantle the security dilemma with its European neighbours, particularly with France. After the signing of the Maastricht Treaty, this situation was reversed, as domestic economic interests and state financial authorities have taken the lead in shaping Germany’s policy on European monetary integration, with foreign policy elites playing a secondary role. Thus German policy has come to resemble more the policies of other European monetary union member states, in that domestic economic concerns have taken precedence over geo-political interests in the making of policy on European monetary integration.

The Sources of Pakistani Attitudes toward Religiously Motivated Terrorism

This study is interested in understanding public opinion in Pakistan toward terror attacks. Specifically, this study explores (1) the general picture of attitudes in Pakistan toward terrorism and (2) which individuals are most likely to support terrorism in Pakistan. The study aims to give insights into how pervasive a support base exists for terrorism as a tactic in Pakistan and it seeks to isolate the individual-level traits that account for the variation we see among Pakistani Muslims regarding their level of acceptance of terrorism against Pakistani and Indian targets. The study finds that a large majority of Pakistanis oppose terrorism but terrorism directed at Indian targets is more tolerated than terrorism against Pakistani targets. The study also finds that those who are most supportive of Talibanization in Pakistan are the most supportive of terrorism.

Explaining patterns of support for the provision of citizen welfare

This study seeks to explain individual-level variation in attitudes toward the responsibility of welfare provision. We seek to understand the microfoundations of support or opposition to the governments role in welfare provision in Europe. While other studies have explored the role that economic or political attitudes have on support for the governments role in welfare provision, this is the first study to assess the relative role that individual psychology, particularly risk acceptance, can play in shaping a citizens attitude toward welfare provision. We argue that an individuals psychological predisposition will play an important role in shaping how s/he thinks about the provision of welfare. The study takes its data from seven European countries: Finland, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. We find that economic self-interest (particularly, social class status, income, and education) is a consistent predictor of ones view of who should be responsible for providing for citizen welfare. In addition to the traditional economic and political explanations, we find support for a psychological explanation, specifically that individuals who are more risk acceptant are more likely to prefer that individuals play a greater role in welfare provision.

Managing the Euro

For a year following the launch of the euro, the European Central Bank (ECB) seemed indifferent to the currencys depreciation. Then the ECB changed to a policy position of trying to bolster the external value of the euro. This paper seeks to explain these patterns of positions on the ECBs external monetary policy. I argue that the ECBs policy on the exchange rate is a function of its commitment to domestic price stability in the euro zone. In other words, the ECBs concern with the euros exchange rate centers solely on what that exchange rate can do to inflation. This focus on price stability is a function of the interests of the ECB in maintaining its own image of competence in European society.

The Polarized American Views on Humanity and the Sources of Hyper-Partisanship

In recent years, many possible explanations have been offered for why America has become a more polarized country. In this article, we introduce a new variable to the discussion. Rather than focusing on specific policy beliefs or political attitudes, we instead suggest that social trust can be an important explanatory factor in predicting which Americans are most likely to be polarized. Through the analysis of ANES data, we find that individuals who are strong trusters of others are more likely to identify as Strong Democrats while those less likely to do so are more likely to self-identify as Strong Republicans. The article concludes by looking at how considering social trust as a predictor of polarization impacts our understanding of American politics.

The Changing Political Economy of Inflation

A type of conventional wisdom has developed among many scholars that industrialized countries with independent central banks produce lower relative inflation rates than countries that do not have these institutions. We argue that the relative importance of central bank independence for fighting inflation changed fundamentally from the 1970s to the 198os as a result of experiences in the advanced industrialized democracies, which led both Right and Left governments to move toward more neo-liberal macroeconomic policies. As governments made price stability more of a priority, the anti-inflationary effects of independent central banks would become much less pronounced. This hypothesis is tested and confirmed in the study in a multi-variate regression analysis using data from eighteen industrialized democracies.

Pakistani Political Communication and Public Opinion on US Drone Attacks

Abstract Conventional wisdom holds that Pakistanis are overwhelmingly opposed to American drone strikes in their country’s tribal areas and that this opposition is driven by mass media coverage of the loss of life and property the strikes purportedly cause. Using an approach based in the literature in political communication and public opinion, we argue this conventional wisdom is largely inaccurate. Instead, we contend that awareness of drone strikes will be limited because Pakistan is a poor country with low educational attainment, high rates of illiteracy and persistent infrastructure problems that limit access to mass media. Moreover, because of these same country characteristics, Pakistanis’ beliefs about drone strikes will be shaped primarily by informal, face-to-face political communication, rather than through more formal media sources. We test this argument using data that we collected by fielding a 7,656 respondent, nationally-representative survey carried out in Pakistan in 2013. The results of the statistical analysis support our arguments.