Karsten Kieckhäfer

Integrating agent-based simulation and system dynamics to support product strategy decisions in the automotive industry

Especially in the European Union both, regulatory requirements regarding the CO2 emissions of new vehicles and the shortage of crude oil force car manufacturers to introduce alternative fuel and powertrain concepts. Due to high investments and long development times as well as the parallel offer of conventional and alternative technologies, an appropriate product strategy is required. Car manufacturers have to decide, which powertrain to introduce at which time in which vehicle class. Hence, the aim of this paper is to develop a framework for the analysis of product strategies in the automotive industry with special regard to alternative fuel and powertrain technologies. The framework integrates System Dynamics and Agent-based Simulation in a simulation environment. On basis of this analysis recommendations can be deduced concerning the implementation of different product portfolios.

A Hybrid Simulation Approach for Estimating the Market Share Evolution of Electric Vehicles

Meeting the 21st centurys challenges of climate change and scarcity of crude oil requires a better understanding of the forces that ensure a successful market introduction of electric vehicles. Against this background, we develop a hybrid simulation approach to estimate the evolution of market shares of electric vehicles. The approach integrates a system dynamics model with an agent-based discrete choice model. System dynamics is used to model the interdependencies between consumer choice, consumer awareness, evolution of powertrain technologies, and service station availability on the macro level. By integrating the agent-based discrete choice model we refine the model parts of consumer choice and consumer awareness. This allows for considering individual consumer choices. Based on real-world data, we apply the model to the established and saturated German market, where replacement purchases dominate. This way we study the interdependencies between the evolution on the macro level and 1 individual replacement purchases as well as 2 heterogeneous consumer behavior. We show that both effects have a clear influence on the market share evolution of electric vehicles. The results indicate that neglecting individual consumer choices in aggregated system models may lead to systematically wrong estimations of the evolution of the market shares of electric vehicles.

A Strategic Framework for the Design of Recycling Networks for Lithium-Ion Batteries from Electric Vehicles

In this paper, we develop a strategic framework for the design of recycling networks for spent lithium-ion batteries from electric vehicles. The framework provides an overview of possible configuration alternatives and an integrated approach for network planning and process configuration tasks. It describes requirements on a network as well as on a process level. For that purpose, we analyse general framework conditions concerning battery return, materials, and recycling processes. On that basis, it is possible to develop a mathematical optimisation model which enables decision support concerning the optimal evolvement of recycling sites, capacities, and processes over time.

Material flow-based economic assessment of landfill mining processes

This paper provides an economic assessment of alternative processes for landfill mining compared to landfill aftercare with the goal of assisting landfill operators with the decision to choose between the two alternatives. A material flow-based assessment approach is developed and applied to a landfill in Germany. In addition to landfill aftercare, six alternative landfill mining processes are considered. These range from simple approaches where most of the material is incinerated or landfilled again to sophisticated technology combinations that allow for recovering highly differentiated products such as metals, plastics, glass, recycling sand, and gravel. For the alternatives, the net present value of all relevant cash flows associated with plant installation and operation, supply, recycling, and disposal of material flows, recovery of land and landfill airspace, as well as landfill closure and aftercare is computed with an extensive sensitivity analyses. The economic performance of landfill mining processes is found to be significantly influenced by the prices of thermal treatment (waste incineration as well as refuse-derived fuels incineration plant) and recovered land or airspace. The results indicate that the simple process alternatives have the highest economic potential, which contradicts the aim of recovering most of the resources.

Impact of Mandatory Rates on the Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries from Electric Vehicles in Germany

We analyse the impact of mandatory recycling rates on the recycling of lithium-ion batteries from electric vehicles in Germany. For that, economically efficient network structures, determined by an optimisation model, are compared with and without mandatory recycling rates. The model determines number, technology, and capacities of recycling facilities to be deployed and volume and mix of batteries to be recycled. Different scenarios depict possible developments of the vehicle market, the battery technology, the material and energy prices, and the capital investment for the technologies. We show that a mandatory recycling rate of 50% results only in minor advancements in the achieved recycling rates, but in higher risk and lower financial attractiveness for investors.

Operations research for sustainability assessment of products: A review

Abstract The environmental and social impacts of products are being increasingly scrutinized. This necessitates systematic assessment methods. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) provides a framework to addresses diverse sustainability issues over the products life cycle, but its application is complicated. Major challenges, such as the selection of relevant indicators, multi-criteria comparisons of alternatives, the treatment of uncertainties, or the integration of spatially differentiated data, can be facilitated by adopting advanced analytical methods from Operations Research. This paper reviews 142 articles that use Operations Research methods for product-related sustainability assessments. The articles were selected from peer-reviewed scientific literature in a systematic search and screening process. Descriptive analysis shows that related publication output is growing over time and originates mainly in journals related to Environmental Management. While ecological indicators are considered by most articles, the integration of economic and social indicators is emerging. Focusing on the contributions of Operations Research, a detailed analysis shows that more than half of the articles adopt methods from Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM), followed by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM). Uncertainties with regard to inventory data and decision makers’ preferences are addressed using fuzzy logic, stochastic models, or sensitivity analysis. The use of spatially differentiated data is not frequently found in the reviewed articles. Research needs derived from this analysis comprise the integration of qualitative and semi-quantitative (social) indicators, the simultaneous consideration of global and local sustainability objectives, and the application of systematic procedures to address uncertainty.

When and how much to invest? Investment and capacity choice under product life cycle uncertainty

While empirical research indicates that innovations typically follow a product life cycle that is subject to uncertainty in many industries, endless cash flow growth is still at the heart of most papers guiding investment decisions under uncertainty. This paper studies the effect of an uncertain technological life cycle on the decision to invest in new product introduction, taking into account the combined effects of flexible investment timing and optimal capacity choice. Based on a numerical example referring to investment decisions in facilities for the production of electric vehicle batteries, we find that the optimal investment threshold follows an S-curve over the product life cycle and derive the optimal capacity choice for the given investment decision.

Supporting Strategic Product Portfolio Planning by Market Simulation

In this paper, the authors propose a decision support for the strategic planning of the future powertrain and vehicle portfolio in the automotive industry. They use a hybrid market simulation approach for a simultaneous consideration of aggregated system and individual consumer behavior. This non-traditional simulation model allows for estimating the development of market shares of various powertrains in different vehicle size classes subject to the vehicle portfolio offered and to assumptions about consumer behavior and market environment.

The Transition to Alternative Powertrains: Concept for the Life-Cycle-Oriented Symbiosis of Technology, Product and Product Portfolio Planning

In this paper the decision situation of an automobile manufacturer (OEM), which alternative powertrains to promote, is presented by discussing the three planning levels technology, product and product portfolio planning, the interdependencies between the levels as well as the necessity to integrate a life-cycle perspective. Based on this, a concept for the life-cycle-oriented symbiosis of technology, product and product portfolio planning is developed. The concept consists of three planning modules each incorporating a life-cycle perspective: technology planning, product planning and product portfolio planning. Within each module, technologies, products and the resulting portfolio are analyzed, evaluated and selected according to the company objective(s). Referring to the developed concept, existing approaches to support the implementation and open challenges are discussed.Copyright

A Framework to Analyze the Reduction Potential of Life Cycle Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Passenger Cars

Automobile manufacturers are increasingly obligated to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of their vehicle fleets. In this paper a framework to analyze the reduction potential of the life cycle CO2 emissions of passenger cars is developed. It comprises nine sub-modules - including macroeconomic and microeconomic oriented modules. For each module relevant elements to be considered are presented. Within a short case study the framework is applied to analyze the reduction potential of the CO2 emissions of passenger cars. The achieved results are discussed with respect to different technical and policy measures available in the US and German market.