Katherine Gass

A multicenter evaluation of diagnostic tools to define endpoints for programs to eliminate bancroftian filariasis

Successful mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns have brought several countries near the point of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) elimination. A diagnostic tool is needed to determine when the prevalence levels have decreased to a point that MDA campaigns can be discontinued without the threat of recrudescence. A six-country study was conducted assessing the performance of seven diagnostic tests, including tests for microfilariae (blood smear, PCR), parasite antigen (ICT, Og4C3) and antifilarial antibody (Bm14, PanLF, Urine SXP). One community survey and one school survey were performed in each country. A total of 8,513 people from the six countries participated in the study, 6,443 through community surveys and 2,070 through school surveys. Specimens from these participants were used to conduct 49,585 diagnostic tests. Each test was seen to have both positive and negative attributes, but overall, the ICT test was found to be 76% sensitive at detecting microfilaremia and 93% specific at identifying individuals negative for both microfilariae and antifilarial antibody; the Og4C3 test was 87% sensitive and 95% specific. We conclude, however, that the ICT should be the primary tool recommended for decision-making about stopping MDAs. As a point-of-care diagnostic, the ICT is relatively inexpensive, requires no laboratory equipment, has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity and can be processed in 10 minutes—qualities consistent with programmatic use. Og4C3 provides a satisfactory laboratory-based diagnostic alternative.

The Global Trachoma Mapping Project: Methodology of a 34-Country Population-Based Study

ABSTRACT Purpose: To complete the baseline trachoma map worldwide by conducting population-based surveys in an estimated 1238 suspected endemic districts of 34 countries. Methods: A series of national and sub-national projects owned, managed and staffed by ministries of health, conduct house-to-house cluster random sample surveys in evaluation units, which generally correspond to “health district” size: populations of 100,000–250,000 people. In each evaluation unit, we invite all residents aged 1 year and older from h households in each of c clusters to be examined for clinical signs of trachoma, where h is the number of households that can be seen by 1 team in 1 day, and the product h × c is calculated to facilitate recruitment of 1019 children aged 1–9 years. In addition to individual-level demographic and clinical data, household-level water, sanitation and hygiene data are entered into the purpose-built LINKS application on Android smartphones, transmitted to the Cloud, and cleaned, analyzed and ministry-of-health-approved via a secure web-based portal. The main outcome measures are the evaluation unit-level prevalence of follicular trachoma in children aged 1–9 years, prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults aged 15 + years, percentage of households using safe methods for disposal of human feces, and percentage of households with proximate access to water for personal hygiene purposes. Results: In the first year of fieldwork, 347 field teams commenced work in 21 projects in 7 countries. Conclusion: With an approach that is innovative in design and scale, we aim to complete baseline mapping of trachoma throughout the world in 2015.

Transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to define endpoints for lymphatic filariasis mass drug administration: a multicenter evaluation.

Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is targeted for global elimination through treatment of entire at-risk populations with repeated annual mass drug administration (MDA). Essential for program success is defining and confirming the appropriate endpoint for MDA when transmission is presumed to have reached a level low enough that it cannot be sustained even in the absence of drug intervention. Guidelines advanced by WHO call for a transmission assessment survey (TAS) to determine if MDA can be stopped within an LF evaluation unit (EU) after at least five effective rounds of annual treatment. To test the value and practicality of these guidelines, a multicenter operational research trial was undertaken in 11 countries covering various geographic and epidemiological settings. Methodology The TAS was conducted twice in each EU with TAS-1 and TAS-2 approximately 24 months apart. Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) formed the basis of the TAS survey design but specific EU characteristics defined the survey site (school or community), eligible population (6–7 year olds or 1st–2nd graders), survey type (systematic or cluster-sampling), target sample size, and critical cutoff (a statistically powered threshold below which transmission is expected to be no longer sustainable). The primary diagnostic tools were the immunochromatographic (ICT) test for W. bancrofti EUs and the BmR1 test (Brugia Rapid or PanLF) for Brugia spp. EUs. Principal Findings/Conclusions In 10 of 11 EUs, the number of TAS-1 positive cases was below the critical cutoff, indicating that MDA could be stopped. The same results were found in the follow-up TAS-2, therefore, confirming the previous decision outcome. Sample sizes were highly sex and age-representative and closely matched the target value after factoring in estimates of non-participation. The TAS was determined to be a practical and effective evaluation tool for stopping MDA although its validity for longer-term post-MDA surveillance requires further investigation.

Joint effects of ambient air pollutants on pediatric asthma emergency department visits in Atlanta, 1998-2004.

Background: Because ambient air pollution exposure occurs as mixtures, consideration of joint effects of multiple pollutants may advance our understanding of the health effects of air pollution. Methods: We assessed the joint effect of air pollutants on pediatric asthma emergency department visits in Atlanta during 1998–2004. We selected combinations of pollutants that were representative of oxidant gases and secondary, traffic, power plant, and criteria pollutants, constructed using combinations of criteria pollutants and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) components. Joint effects were assessed using multipollutant Poisson generalized linear models controlling for time trends, meteorology, and daily nonasthma upper respiratory emergency department visit counts. Rate ratios (RRs) were calculated for the combined effect of an interquartile range increment in each pollutant’s concentration. Results: Increases in all of the selected pollutant combinations were associated with increases in warm-season pediatric asthma emergency department visits (eg, joint-effect RR = 1.13 [95% confidence interval = 1.06–1.21] for criteria pollutants, including ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and PM2.5). Cold-season joint effects from models without nonlinear effects were generally weaker than warm-season effects. Joint-effect estimates from multipollutant models were often smaller than estimates based on single-pollutant models, due to control for confounding. Compared with models without interactions, joint-effect estimates from models including first-order pollutant interactions were largely similar. There was evidence of nonlinear cold-season effects. Conclusions: Our analyses illustrate how consideration of joint effects can add to our understanding of health effects of multipollutant exposures and also illustrate some of the complexities involved in calculating and interpreting joint effects of multiple pollutants.

Longitudinal monitoring of the development of antifilarial antibodies and acquisition of Wuchereria bancrofti in a highly endemic area of Haiti.

Antifilarial antibody testing has been established as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing lymphatic filariasis. However, the development of serological responses to specific filarial antigens and their relationship to acquisition of infection is poorly understood. In order to evaluate whether the development of antigen specific antifilarial antibodies precedes microfilaremia and antigenemia, we compared the antibody responses of serum samples collected between 1990 and 1999 from a cohort of 142 Haitian children followed longitudinally. Antigen status was determined using the Og4C3 ELISA and the presence of microfilaremia was detected using microscopy. Antibody responses to Wb123, a Wuchereria bancrofti L3 antigen, were measured using a Luciferase Immunoprecipitation System (LIPS) assay. Antibody responses to Bm14 and Bm33, Brugia malayi antigens and to a major surface protein (WSP) from Wolbachia were analyzed using a multiplex bead assay. Over follow-up, 80 (56%) of the children became antigen-positive and 30 (21%) developed microfilaremia. Detectable antibody responses to Bm14, Bm33, Wb123, and WSP developed in 95%, 100%, 92%, and 29% of children, respectively. With the exception of WSP, the development of antibody responses generally preceded detection of filarial antigen. Our results show that antifilarial antibody responses can serve as an important epidemiological indicator in a sentinel population of young children and thus, may be valuable as tool for surveillance in the context of lymphatic filariasis elimination programs.

Effects of ambient air pollution measurement error on health effect estimates in time-series studies: a simulation-based analysis

In this study, we investigated bias caused by spatial variability and spatial heterogeneity in outdoor air-pollutant concentrations, instrument imprecision, and choice of daily pollutant metric on risk ratio (RR) estimates obtained from a Poisson time-series analysis. Daily concentrations for 12 pollutants were simulated for Atlanta, Georgia, at 5 km resolution during a 6-year period. Viewing these as being representative of the true concentrations, a population-level pollutant health effect (RR) was specified, and daily counts of health events were simulated. Error representative of instrument imprecision was added to the simulated concentrations at the locations of fixed site monitors in Atlanta, and these mismeasured values were combined to create three different city-wide daily metrics (central monitor, unweighted average, and population-weighted average). Given our assumptions, the median bias in the RR per unit increase in concentration was found to be lowest for the population-weighted average metric. Although the Berkson component of error caused bias away from the null in the log-linear models, the net bias due to measurement error tended to be towards the null. The relative differences in bias among the metrics were lessened, although not eliminated, by scaling results to interquartile range increases in concentration.

Ensemble-Based Source Apportionment of Fine Particulate Matter and Emergency Department Visits for Pediatric Asthma

Epidemiologic studies utilizing source apportionment (SA) of fine particulate matter have shown that particles from certain sources might be more detrimental to health than others; however, it is difficult to quantify the uncertainty associated with a given SA approach. In the present study, we examined associations between source contributions of fine particulate matter and emergency department visits for pediatric asthma in Atlanta, Georgia (2002-2010) using a novel ensemble-based SA technique. Six daily source contributions from 4 SA approaches were combined into an ensemble source contribution. To better account for exposure uncertainty, 10 source profiles were sampled from their posterior distributions, resulting in 10 time series with daily SA concentrations. For each of these time series, Poisson generalized linear models with varying lag structures were used to estimate the health associations for the 6 sources. The rate ratios for the source-specific health associations from the 10 imputed source contribution time series were combined, resulting in health associations with inflated confidence intervals to better account for exposure uncertainty. Adverse associations with pediatric asthma were observed for 8-day exposure to particles generated from diesel-fueled vehicles (rate ratio = 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.10) and gasoline-fueled vehicles (rate ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.17).

Exploring the Relationship between Access to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene and Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection: A Demonstration of Two Recursive Partitioning Tools

Background Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) – a class of parasites that affect billions of people – can be mitigated using mass drug administration, though reinfection following treatment occurs within a few months. Improvements to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) likely provide sustained benefit, but few rigorous studies have evaluated the specific WASH components most influential in reducing infection. There is a need for alternative analytic approaches to help identify, characterize and further refine the WASH components that are most important to STH reinfection. Traditional epidemiological approaches are not well-suited for assessing the complex and highly correlated relationships commonly seen in WASH. Methodology We introduce two recursive partitioning approaches: classification and regression trees (C&RT) and conditional inference trees (CIT), which can be used to identify complex interactions between WASH indicators and identify sub-populations that may be susceptible to STH reinfection. We illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of these approaches utilizing school- and household-level WASH indicators gathered as part of a school-based randomized control trial in Kenya that measured STH reinfection of pupils 10 months following deworming treatment. Principal Findings C&RT and CIT analyses resulted in strikingly different decision trees. C&RT may be the preferred approach if interest lies in using WASH indicators to classify individuals or communities as STH infected or uninfected, whereas CIT is most appropriate for identifying WASH indicators that may be causally associated with STH infection. Both tools are well-suited for identifying complex interactions among WASH indicators. Conclusions/Significance C&RT and CIT are two analytic approaches that may offer valuable insight regarding the identification, selection and refinement of WASH indicators and their interactions with regards to STH control programs; however, they represent solutions to two distinct research questions and careful consideration should be made before deciding which approach is most appropriate.

Associations between ambient air pollutant mixtures and pediatric asthma emergency department visits in three cities: a classification and regression tree approach

BackgroundCharacterizing multipollutant health effects is challenging. We use classification and regression trees to identify multipollutant joint effects associated with pediatric asthma exacerbations and compare these results with those from a multipollutant regression model with continuous joint effects.MethodsWe investigate the joint effects of ozone, NO2 and PM2.5 on emergency department visits for pediatric asthma in Atlanta (1999–2009), Dallas (2006–2009) and St. Louis (2001–2007). Daily concentrations of each pollutant were categorized into four levels, resulting in 64 different combinations or “Day-Types” that can occur. Days when all pollutants were in the lowest level were withheld as the reference group. Separate regression trees were grown for each city, with partitioning based on Day-Type in a model with control for confounding. Day-Types that appeared together in the same terminal node in all three trees were considered to be mixtures of potential interest and were included as indicator variables in a three-city Poisson generalized linear model with confounding control and rate ratios calculated relative to the reference group. For comparison, we estimated analogous joint effects from a multipollutant Poisson model that included terms for each pollutant, with concentrations modeled continuously.Results and discussionNo single mixture emerged as the most harmful. Instead, the rate ratios for the mixtures suggest that all three pollutants drive the health association, and that the rate plateaus in the mixtures with the highest concentrations. In contrast, the results from the comparison model are dominated by an association with ozone and suggest that the rate increases with concentration.ConclusionThe use of classification and regression trees to identify joint effects may lead to different conclusions than multipollutant models with continuous joint effects and may serve as a complementary approach for understanding health effects of multipollutant mixtures.

The rationale and cost-effectiveness of a confirmatory mapping tool for lymphatic filariasis: Examples from Ethiopia and Tanzania

Endemicity mapping is required to determining whether a district requires mass drug administration (MDA). Current guidelines for mapping LF require that two sites be selected per district and within each site a convenience sample of 100 adults be tested for antigenemia or microfilaremia. One or more confirmed positive tests in either site is interpreted as an indicator of potential transmission, prompting MDA at the district-level. While this mapping strategy has worked well in high-prevalence settings, imperfect diagnostics and the transmission potential of a single positive adult have raised concerns about the strategy’s use in low-prevalence settings. In response to these limitations, a statistically rigorous confirmatory mapping strategy was designed as a complement to the current strategy when LF endemicity is uncertain. Under the new strategy, schools are selected by either systematic or cluster sampling, depending on population size, and within each selected school, children 9–14 years are sampled systematically. All selected children are tested and the number of positive results is compared against a critical value to determine, with known probabilities of error, whether the average prevalence of LF infection is likely below a threshold of 2%. This confirmatory mapping strategy was applied to 45 districts in Ethiopia and 10 in Tanzania, where initial mapping results were considered uncertain. In 42 Ethiopian districts, and all 10 of the Tanzanian districts, the number of antigenemic children was below the critical cutoff, suggesting that these districts do not require MDA. Only three Ethiopian districts exceeded the critical cutoff of positive results. Whereas the current World Health Organization guidelines would have recommended MDA in all 55 districts, the present results suggest that only three of these districts requires MDA. By avoiding unnecessary MDA in 52 districts, the confirmatory mapping strategy is estimated to have saved a total of