Katherine T. Moorhead

Validation of a Model-based Virtual Trials Method for Tight Glycemic Control in Intensive Care

BackgroundIn-silico virtual patients and trials offer significant advantages in cost, time and safety for designing effective tight glycemic control (TGC) protocols. However, no such method has fully validated the independence of virtual patients (or resulting clinical trial predictions) from the data used to create them. This study uses matched cohorts from a TGC clinical trial to validate virtual patients and in-silico virtual trial models and methods.MethodsData from a 211 patient subset of the Glucontrol trial in Liege, Belgium. Glucontrol-A (N = 142) targeted 4.4-6.1 mmol/L and Glucontrol-B (N = 69) targeted 7.8-10.0 mmol/L. Cohorts were matched by APACHE II score, initial BG, age, weight, BMI and sex (p > 0.25). Virtual patients are created by fitting a clinically validated model to clinical data, yielding time varying insulin sensitivity profiles (SI(t)) that drives in-silico patients.Model fit and intra-patient (forward) prediction errors are used to validate individual in-silico virtual patients. Self-validation (tests A protocol on Group-A virtual patients; and B protocol on B virtual patients) and cross-validation (tests A protocol on Group-B virtual patients; and B protocol on A virtual patients) are used in comparison to clinical data to assess ability to predict clinical trial results.ResultsModel fit errors were small (<0.25%) for all patients, indicating model fitness. Median forward prediction errors were: 4.3, 2.8 and 3.5% for Group-A, Group-B and Overall (A+B), indicating individual virtual patients were accurate representations of real patients. SI and its variability were similar between cohorts indicating they were metabolically similar.Self and cross validation results were within 1-10% of the clinical data for both Group-A and Group-B. Self-validation indicated clinically insignificant errors due to model and/or clinical compliance. Cross-validation clearly showed that virtual patients enabled by identified patient-specific SI(t) profiles can accurately predict the performance of independent and different TGC protocols.ConclusionsThis study fully validates these virtual patients and in silico virtual trial methods, and clearly shows they can accurately simulate, in advance, the clinical results of a TGC protocol, enabling rapid in silico protocol design and optimization. These outcomes provide the first rigorous validation of a virtual in-silico patient and virtual trials methodology.

Organ failure and tight glycemic control in the SPRINT study

IntroductionIntensive care unit mortality is strongly associated with organ failure rate and severity. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is used to evaluate the impact of a successful tight glycemic control (TGC) intervention (SPRINT) on organ failure, morbidity, and thus mortality.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 371 patients (3,356 days) on SPRINT (August 2005 - April 2007) and 413 retrospective patients (3,211 days) from two years prior, matched by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III. SOFA is calculated daily for each patient. The effect of the SPRINT TGC intervention is assessed by comparing the percentage of patients with SOFA ≤5 each day and its trends over time and cohort/group. Organ-failure free days (all SOFA components ≤2) and number of organ failures (SOFA components >2) are also compared. Cumulative time in 4.0 to 7.0 mmol/L band (cTIB) was evaluated daily to link tightness and consistency of TGC (cTIB ≥0.5) to SOFA ≤5 using conditional and joint probabilities.ResultsAdmission and maximum SOFA scores were similar (P = 0.20; P = 0.76), with similar time to maximum (median: one day; IQR: [1, 3] days; P = 0.99). Median length of stay was similar (4.1 days SPRINT and 3.8 days Pre-SPRINT; P = 0.94). The percentage of patients with SOFA ≤5 is different over the first 14 days (P = 0.016), rising to approximately 75% for Pre-SPRINT and approximately 85% for SPRINT, with clear separation after two days. Organ-failure-free days were different (SPRINT = 41.6%; Pre-SPRINT = 36.5%; P < 0.0001) as were the percent of total possible organ failures (SPRINT = 16.0%; Pre-SPRINT = 19.0%; P < 0.0001). By Day 3 over 90% of SPRINT patients had cTIB ≥0.5 (37% Pre-SPRINT) reaching 100% by Day 7 (50% Pre-SPRINT). Conditional and joint probabilities indicate tighter, more consistent TGC under SPRINT (cTIB ≥0.5) increased the likelihood SOFA ≤5.ConclusionsSPRINT TGC resolved organ failure faster, and for more patients, from similar admission and maximum SOFA scores, than conventional control. These reductions mirror the reduced mortality with SPRINT. The cTIB ≥0.5 metric provides a first benchmark linking TGC quality to organ failure. These results support other physiological and clinical results indicating the role tight, consistent TGC can play in reducing organ failure, morbidity and mortality, and should be validated on data from randomised trials.

Breath ammonia and trimethylamine allow real-time monitoring of haemodialysis efficacy

Non-invasive monitoring of breath ammonia and trimethylamine using Selected-ion-flow-tube mass spectroscopy (SIFT-MS) could provide a real-time alternative to current invasive techniques. Breath ammonia and trimethylamine were monitored by SIFT-MS before, during and after haemodialysis in 20 patients. In 15 patients (41 sessions), breath was collected hourly into Tedlar bags and analysed immediately (group A). During multiple dialyses over 8 days, five patients breathed directly into the SIFT-MS analyser every 30 min (group B). Pre- and post-dialysis direct breath concentrations were compared with urea reduction, Kt/V and creatinine concentrations. Dialysis decreased breath ammonia, but a transient increase occurred mid treatment in some patients. Trimethylamine decreased more rapidly than reported previously. Pre-dialysis breath ammonia correlated with pre-dialysis urea in group B (r(2) = 0.71) and with change in urea (group A, r(2) = 0.24; group B, r(2) = 0.74). In group B, ammonia correlated with change in creatinine (r(2) = 0.35), weight (r(2) = 0.52) and Kt/V (r(2) = 0.30). The ammonia reduction ratio correlated with the urea reduction ratio (URR) (r(2) = 0.42) and Kt/V (r(2) = 0.38). Pre-dialysis trimethylamine correlated with Kt/V (r(2) = 0.21), and the trimethylamine reduction ratio with URR (r(2) = 0.49) and Kt/V (r(2) = 0.36). Real-time breath analysis revealed previously unmeasurable differences in clearance kinetics of ammonia and trimethylamine. Breath ammonia is potentially useful in assessment of dialysis efficacy.

First pilot trial of the STAR-Liege protocol for tight glycemic control in critically ill patients

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits in ICU patients, but been difficult to achieve consistently due to inter- and intra- patient variability that requires more adaptive, patient-specific solutions. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible model-based TGC framework accounting for patient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) below 72 mg/dL. This research describes the first clinical pilot trial of the STAR approach and the post-trial analysis of the models and methods that underpin the protocol. The STAR framework works with clinically specified targets and intervention guidelines. The clinically specified glycemic target was 125 mg/dL. Each trial was 24 h with BG measured 1-2 hourly. Two-hourly measurement was used when BG was between 110-135 mg/dL for 3 h. In the STAR approach, each intervention leads to a predicted BG level and outcome range (5-95th percentile) based on a stochastic model of metabolic patient variability. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was monitored, but not changed from clinical settings except to prevent BG<100 mg/dL when no insulin was given. Insulin infusion rates were limited (6 U/h maximum), with limited increases based on current infusion rate (0.5-2.0 U/h), making this use of the STAR framework an insulin-only TGC approach. Approval was granted by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of the University of Liege (Liege, Belgium). Nine patient trials were undertaken after obtaining informed consent. There were 205 measurements over all 9 trials. Median [IQR] per-patient results were: BG: 138.5 [130.6-146.0]mg/dL; carbohydrate administered: 2-11 g/h; median insulin:1.3 [0.9-2.4]U/h with a maximum of 6.0 [4.7-6.0]U/h. Median [IQR] time in the desired 110-140 mg/dL band was: 50.0 [31.2-54.2]%. Median model prediction errors ranged: 10-18%, with larger errors due to small meals and other clinical events. The minimum BG was 63 mg/dL and no other measurement was below 72 mg/dL, so only 1 measurement (0.5%) was below the 5% guaranteed minimum risk level. Post-trial analysis showed that patients were more variable than predicted by the stochastic model used for control, resulting in some of the prediction errors seen. Analysis and (validated) virtual trial re-simulating the clinical trial using stochastic models relevant to the patients particular day of ICU stay were seen to be more accurate in capturing the observed variability. This analysis indicated that equivalent control and safety could be obtained with similar or lower glycemic variability in control using more specific stochastic models. STAR effectively controlled all patients to target. Observed patient variability in response to insulin and thus prediction errors were higher than expected, likely due to the recent insult of cardiac surgery or a major cardiac event, and their immediate recovery. STAR effectively managed this variability with no hypoglycemia. Improved stochastic models will be used to prospectively test these outcomes in further ongoing clinical pilot trials in this and other units.

Automated Insulin Infusion Trials in the Intensive Care Unit

The objective is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a simple automated insulin infusion for controlling the rise and duration of blood glucose excursion following a glucose challenge in critically ill patients with impaired glucose tolerance. A two-compartment model of the glucose regulatory system was developed for intravenous infusion control design. On two subsequent days a critically ill patient with impaired glucose tolerance was given a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), and the glucose level was measured every 15 min. The first days data were used to design a heavy-derivative insulin infusion controller for the second day. Ethics approval was granted for this test. Five patients were studied. In four patients, the magnitude and duration of blood glucose excursion were reduced over 50%. Fasting level was reduced 15%, from an average of 7.2 mmol/L to 6.1 mmol/L. The fifth patients results showed a diminished response due to the antagonistic effects of hydrocortisone on insulin, a data point not provided prior to testing. Modeling to account for this effect yielded better correlation with the test. The automated algorithm provided rapid, effective control of the blood glucose rise in response to an OGTT input. These results highlight the effectiveness of automated infusions for regulating blood glucose rise and excursions, and the potential of this approach for non-hospitalized individuals.

Classifying algorithms for SIFT-MS technology and medical diagnosis

Selected Ion Flow Tube-Mass Spectrometry (SIFT-MS) is an analytical technique for real-time quantification of trace gases in air or breath samples. SIFT-MS system thus offers unique potential for early, rapid detection of disease states. Identification of volatile organic compound (VOC) masses that contribute strongly towards a successful classification clearly highlights potential new biomarkers. A method utilising kernel density estimates is thus presented for classifying unknown samples. It is validated in a simple known case and a clinical setting before-after dialysis. The simple case with nitrogen in Tedlar bags returned a 100% success rate, as expected. The clinical proof-of-concept with seven tests on one patient had an ROC curve area of 0.89. These results validate the method presented and illustrate the emerging clinical potential of this technology.

Second pilot trials of the STAR-Liege protocol for tight glycemic control in critically ill patients

BackgroundCritically ill patients often present increased insulin resistance and stress-induced hyperglycemia. Tight glycemic control aims to reduce blood glucose (BG) levels and variability while ensuring safety from hypoglycemia. This paper presents the results of the second Belgian clinical trial using the customizable STAR framework in a target-to-range control approach. The main objective is reducing measurement frequency while maintaining performance and safety of the glycemic control.MethodsThe STAR-Liege 2 (SL2) protocol targeted the 100–140 mg/dL glycemic band and offered 2-hourly and 3-hourly interventions. Only insulin rates were adjusted, and nutrition inputs were left to the attending clinicians. This protocol restricted the forecasted risk of BG < 90 mg/dL to a 5% level using a stochastic model of insulin sensitivity to assess patient-specific responses to insulin and its future likely variability to optimize insulin interventions. The clinical trial was performed at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Liege and included 9 patients. Results are compared to 24-hour pre-trial and 24-hour post-trial, but also to the results of the first pilot trial performed in Liege, STAR-Liege 1 (SL1). This trial was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of the University of Liege (Liege, Belgium).ResultsDuring the SL2 trial, 91 measurements were taken over 194 hours. BG levels were tightly distributed: 54.9% of BG within 100–140 mg/dL, 40.7% were ≥ 140 mg/dL and 4.4% were < 100 mg/dL with no BG < 70 mg/dL. Comparing these results with 24-hour pre-trial and post-trial shows that SL2 reduced high and low BG levels and reduced glycemic variability. Nurses selected 3-hourly measurement only 5 of 16 times and overrode 12% of 91 recommended interventions (35% increased insulin rates and 65% decreased insulin rates). SL1 and SL2 present similar BG levels distribution (p > 0.05) with significantly reduced measurement frequency for SL2 (p < 0.05).ConclusionsThe SL2 protocol succeeded in reducing clinical workload while maintaining safety and effectiveness of the glycemic control. SL2 was also shown to be safer and tighter than hospital control. Overall results validate the efficacy of significantly customizing the STAR framework.

Modelling acute renal failure using blood and breath biomarkers in rats

This paper compares three methods for estimating renal function, as tested in rats. Acute renal failure (ARF) was induced via a 60-min bilateral renal artery clamp in 8 Sprague-Dawley rats and renal function was monitored for 1 week post-surgery. A two-compartment model was developed for estimating glomerular filtration via a bolus injection of a radio-labelled inulin tracer, and was compared with an estimated creatinine clearance method, modified using the Cockcroft-Gault equation for rats. These two methods were compared with selected ion flow tube-mass spectrometry (SIFT-MS) monitoring of breath analytes. Determination of renal function via SIFT-MS is desirable since results are available non-invasively and in real time. Relative decreases in renal function show very good correlation between all 3 methods (R²=0.84, 0.91 and 0.72 for breath-inulin, inulin-creatinine, and breath-creatinine correlations, respectively), and indicate good promise for fast, non-invasive determination of renal function via breath testing.

Derivative weighted active insulin control algorithms and trials

Abstract Close control of blood glucose levels significantly reduces vascular complications in diabetes. Heavy derivative controllers utilising the data density available from emerging biosensors are developed to provide tight, optimal control of elevated blood glucose levels. A two-compartment human model is developed for intravenous infusion from physiologically verified subcutaneous infusion models to enable a first of its kind, proof-of-concept clinical trial. Results show tight control with very similar performance to modelled behaviour and strong correlation between modelled insulin used versus the amounts used in clinical trials to validate the models and methods developed.

A simplified model for mitral valve dynamics

Located between the left atrium and the left ventricle, the mitral valve controls flow between these two cardiac chambers. Mitral valve dysfunction is a major cause of cardiac dysfunction and its dynamics are little known. A simple non-linear rotational spring model is developed and implemented to capture the dynamics of the mitral valve. A measured pressure difference curve was used as the input into the model, which represents an applied torque to the anatomical valve chords. A range of mechanical model hysteresis states were investigated to find a model that best matches reported animal data of chord movement during a heartbeat. The study is limited by the use of one dataset found in the literature due to the highly invasive nature of getting this data. However, results clearly highlight fundamental physiological issues, such as the damping and chord stiffness changing within one cardiac cycle, that would be directly represented in any mitral valve model and affect behaviour in dysfunction. Very good correlation was achieved between modeled and experimental valve angle with 1-10% absolute error in the best case, indicating good promise for future simulation of cardiac valvular dysfunction, such as mitral regurgitation or stenosis. In particular, the model provides a pathway to capturing these dysfunctions in terms of modeled stiffness or elastance that can be directly related to anatomical, structural defects and dysfunction.