Kathleen W. Johnson

The Debt‐Payment‐to‐Income Ratio as an Indicator of Borrowing Constraints: Evidence from Two Household Surveys

Liquidity constraints have been proposed as an important explanation for deviations from the rational expectations/permanent income hypothesis. This paper introduces to the liquidity constraint literature the ratio of a households debt payments to its disposable personal income, the debt service ratio (DSR). We find that a household with a high DSR is significantly more likely to be turned down for credit than other households. Also, the consumption growth of likely constrained households, identified using the DSR along with the liquid-asset-to-income ratio, is significantly more sensitive to past income than that of other households, confirming the DSRs value in identifying constrained households. Copyright (c) 2010 The Ohio State University.

Recent developments in the credit card market and the financial obligations ratio

Over the past 17 years, U.S. households in the aggregate have devoted an increasing share of their after-tax income to the payment of financial obligations. Part of the increase is attributable to a rise in the level of credit card debt, which has raised the share of households’ aggregate after-tax income that is devoted to credit card payments. Much of the rising share of credit card debt in overall financial obligations may stem from several notable changes in the credit card market over this period.

Are Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Borrowers Borrowing Constrained?

Past research argues that changes in adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) payments may lead households to cut back on consumption or to default on their mortgages. In this paper, we argue that these outcomes are more likely if ARM borrowers are borrowing constrained, and find that ARM borrowers exhibit characteristics and behavior that are consistent with being borrowing constrained. Although the demographic and financial characteristics of ARM and fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) borrowers are quite similar, ARM borrowers differ from FRM borrowers in their uses of credit and attitudes towards it. In addition, we find the consumption growth of households with an ARM is more sensitive to past income than the consumption growth of other households, suggesting the ARM borrowers are more likely subject to borrowing constraints that hinder their ability to smooth consumption.

Do High Debt Payments Hinder Household Consumption Smoothing

Recently, U.S. households have committed a rising share of disposable personal income to required principal and interest payments on household debt. Studies of the direct link between the household debt service ratio (DSR) and consumption show mixed results—perhaps because debt may instead alter the relationship between consumption and income. We explore this possibility by comparing the consumption smoothing behavior of households over the DSR distribution. We find that a high DSR alone does not indicate higher sensitivity of consumption to a change in income. However, we find evidence that the DSR may help identify borrowing constrained households. In particular, the consumption of households with low liquid assets and high DSRs is more sensitive than the consumption of other low liquid asset households. Although this effect of high DSR is not precisely estimated, it is large and robust to changes in the specification, suggesting that more work is warranted.

Consumer Loan Securitization

When a financial institution securitizes illiquid assets, it transforms them into tradable assets. To accomplish this in practice, the financial institution pools the illiquid assets, enhances them, and ultimately sells them to a third party. Because this third party has raised funds for the purchase by issuing securities in the capital market, the financial institution has transformed the illiquid assets into securities that are widely traded. Such asset-backed securities (ABS) have become a significant funding mechanism for consumer lending over the past fifteen years.

The Transactions Demand for Credit Cards

Abstract I argue that the measure of credit card debt used by researchers has grown rapidly in part because it captures debt arising from transactions in which a credit card is used because of its advantages over other payment instruments. Increases in debt stemming from such use may not signal greater household financial vulnerability if households are willing and able to repay this short-term debt. However, it may suggest that the cost of using credit cards to pay for purchases has declined relative to other payment instruments. I conclude that had transactions demand remained at its real 1992 levels, rather than growing almost 15 percent per year, measured credit card debt would have grown a bit less than 1 percentage point slower per year between 1992 and 2001. Moreover, I show that removing transactions demand from aggregate consumer credit can alter conclusions about the relationship between credit and consumption.

Convenience or Necessity? Understanding the Recent Rise in Credit Card Debt

Economist disagree whether the recent increase in credit card debt has been detrimental to U.S. household. However, many rely on a measure of revolving credit published by the Federal Reserve, which captures transactions in which a credit card is used because of its advantages over cash or a check. An increase in debt stemming from such convenience use likely would not signal greater financial vulnerability for households. In this paper, I present evidence that some of the significant increase in both the level of credit card debt and it growth from 1992 to 2001 was due to convenience use.

Are Adjustable‐Rate Mortgage Borrowers Borrowing Constrained?

Past research argues that changes in adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) payments may lead households to cut back on consumption or to default on their mortgages. In this paper, we argue that these outcomes are more likely if ARM borrowers are borrowing constrained, and find that ARM borrowers exhibit characteristics and behavior that are consistent with being borrowing constrained. Although the demographic and financial characteristics of ARM and fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) borrowers are quite similar, ARM borrowers differ from FRM borrowers in their uses of credit and attitudes towards it. In addition, we find the consumption growth of households with an ARM is more sensitive to past income than the consumption growth of other households, suggesting the ARM borrowers are more likely subject to borrowing constraints that hinder their ability to smooth consumption.

Auto Sales and Credit Supply

Vehicle purchases fell by more than 20 percent during the 2007-09 recession, and auto loan originations fell by a third. We show that vehicle purchases typically account for an outsized share of the contraction in economic activity during a recession, in part because a concurrent tightening in auto lending conditions makes car purchases less affordable for many households. We explore the link between lending conditions and vehicle purchases with a novel gauge of credit supply conditions--household perceptions of vehicle financing conditions as measured on the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. In both a vector auto-regression estimated on aggregate data and a logit regression estimated on household-level data, this measure indicates that credit conditions are a significant influence on auto sales, as large as factors such as unemployment and income. Estimates from the household-level model show that the new car purchases of households that are more likely to depend on credit are particularly sensitive to assessments of financing conditions, and that households are a bit more likely to purchase vehicles when they expect interest rates to rise in the next year. The results contribute to the literature validating the usefulness of survey measures of household perceptions for forecasting macroeconomic activity.

End of the Line: Behavior of HELOC Borrowers Facing Payment Changes

An important question in the household finance literature is whether a change in required debt payments affects borrower behavior. One challenge in this literature has been identifying whether higher default rates observed after an increase in debt payments stem from the inability of borrowers to pay the higher amount, or the attrition of better borrowers in advance of the payment change. A related question is whether the higher default rate is a result of specific features of the debt product, or the type of borrower who chooses the product. We address both of these questions as they relate to a scheduled increase in payments on home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Many existing HELOCs are structured such that when they reach the end of the draw period, they convert from open-ended, non-amortizing lines of credit to closed-end, amortizing loans. We compare the performance of HELOCs reaching end of draw with those not reaching end of draw and find that HELOCs that reach end of draw have a significantly higher cumulative default rate in the following months. We also show that, at end of draw, borrowers who have a HELOC with a balloon feature are more likely to have lower credit scores and higher LTVs than borrowers who have HELOCs with longer amortization periods. However, even controlling for borrower and loan characteristics, HELOCs with a balloon payment are more likely to default. This result provides evidence that HELOC defaults can be influenced both by the features of the product and the characteristics of borrowers who choose those features.