Katsushi Iwamoto

A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn

This paper examines the possible linkage between the recent reduction in Arctic sea-ice extent and the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Observational analyses using the ERA interim reanalysis and merged Hadley/Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature data reveal that a reduced (increased) sea-ice area in November leads to more negative (positive) phases of the AO and NAO in early and late winter, respectively. We simulate the atmospheric response to observed sea-ice anomalies using a high-top atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM for Earth Simulator, AFES version 4.1). The results from the simulation reveal that the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction results in cold winters in mid-latitude continental regions, which are linked to an anomalous circulation pattern similar to the negative phase of AO/NAO with an increased frequency of large negative AO events by a factor of over two. Associated with this negative AO/NAO phase, cold air advection from the Arctic to the mid-latitudes increases. We found that the stationary Rossby wave response to the sea-ice reduction in the Barents Sea region induces this anomalous circulation. We also found a positive feedback mechanism resulting from the anomalous meridional circulation that cools the mid-latitudes and warms the Arctic, which adds an extra heating to the Arctic air column equivalent to about 60% of the direct surface heat release from the sea-ice reduction. The results from this high-top model experiment also suggested a critical role of the stratosphere in deepening the tropospheric annular mode and modulation of the NAO in mid to late winter through stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

The stratospheric pathway for Arctic impacts on midlatitude climate

Recent evidence from both observations and model simulations suggests that an Arctic sea ice reduction tends to cause a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase with severe winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, which is often preceded by weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Although this evidence hints at a stratospheric involvement in the Arctic-midlatitude climate linkage, the exact role of the stratosphere remains elusive. Here we show that tropospheric AO response to the Arctic sea ice reduction largely disappears when suppressing the stratospheric wave mean flow interactions in numerical experiments. The results confirm a crucial role of the stratosphere in the sea ice impacts on the midlatitudes by coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and planetary-scale waves. Those results and consistency with observation-based evidence suggest that a recent Arctic sea ice loss is linked to midlatitudes extreme weather events associated with the negative AO phase.

Improved mapping of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean using AMSR‐E thin ice thickness algorithm

New and improved estimates of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean are derived from AMSR-E satellite and atmospheric reanalysis data for the period 2002-2011, at a spatial resolution of 6.25 km and using a newly developed fast-ice mask. High ice production in the major coastal polynyas is well demonstrated. The total annual cumulative ice production in the major 10 polynya regions is about 1180±70km 3. The interannual variability of the ice production for each polynya is presented during 2002-2011. No obvious relationship is noted between the ice production and the recent drastic reduction in the preceding summer Arctic sea ice extent. Most polynya regions exhibit maximum ice production in autumn (October - November), before areas offshore have been covered with consolidated pack ice. Sea ice production from October to November in the marginal ice zone of the Pacific Ocean sector is negatively correlated with summer ice extent there. The ice production from October to November of 2007 (a record minimum summer ice extent) was about twice as large as that in other years. The high ice production area shifted to higher latitudes i.e., toward the deep Canada Basin, due to the retreat of the summer ice edge. We speculate that the resultant increase in brine input could change the oceanic structure in the basin, specifically deepening the winter mixed layer.

Estimation of thin ice thickness from AMSR-E data in the Chukchi Sea

In this study, we have developed an algorithm for estimating thin ice thickness in the Chukchi Sea of the Arctic Ocean using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) data. The algorithm is based on comparisons between the polarization ratio (PR) of AMSR-E brightness temperatures from the 89 and 36 GHz channels (PR89 and PR36) and the thermal ice thickness. The thermal ice thickness is estimated from a heat budget calculation using the ice surface temperature from clear-sky Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared data. Whereas coastal polynyas have been the main target of previous algorithms, this algorithm is also applicable for marginal ice zones. AMSR-E has twice the spatial resolution of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data and can therefore resolve polynyas at a smaller scale. Although the spatial resolution of the 89 GHz data (6.25 km) is twice that of the 36 GHz data (12.5 km), the 89 GHz data can be contaminated by atmospheric water vapour. We propose an exclusion method of data affected by water vapour to resolve this issue. A combined algorithm of thin ice and ice concentration is also discussed, in which the ice thickness can be estimated independently from the open water fraction in grid cells with less than 100% ice concentration. The PR–thickness relationship in this study is somewhat different from previous studies, which is likely due to the difference in prevailing ice types caused by background environmental conditions.

A wind-driven, hybrid latent and sensible heat coastal polynya off Barrow, Alaska

The nature of the Barrow Coastal Polynya (BCP), which forms episodically off the Alaska coast in winter, is examined using mooring data, atmospheric reanalysis data, and satellite-derived sea-ice concentration and production data. We focus on oceanographic conditions such as water mass distribution and ocean current structure beneath the BCP. Two moorings were deployed off Barrow, Alaska in the northeastern Chukchi Sea from August 2009 to July 2010. For sea-ice season from December to May, a characteristic sequence of five events associated with the BCP has been identified; (1) dominant northeasterly wind parallel to the Barrow Canyon, with an offshore component off Barrow, (2) high sea-ice production, (3) upwelling of warm and saline Atlantic Water beneath the BCP, (4) strong up-canyon shear flow associated with displaced density surfaces due to the upwelling, and (5) sudden suppression of ice growth. A baroclinic current structure, established after the upwelling, caused enhanced vertical shear and corresponding vertical mixing. The mixing event and open water formation occurred simultaneously, once sea-ice production had stopped. Thus, mixing events accompanied by ocean heat flux from the upwelled warm water into the surface layer played an important role in formation/maintenance of the open water area (i.e., sensible heat polynya). The transition from a latent to a sensible heat polynya is well reproduced by a high-resolution pan-Arctic ice-ocean model. We propose that the BCP, previously considered to be a latent heat polynya, is a wind-driven hybrid latent and sensible heat polynya, with both features caused by the same northeasterly wind.

Observations of supercooled water and frazil ice formation in an Arctic coastal polynya from moorings and satellite imagery

Abstract Formation of supercooled water and frazil ice was studied in the Chukchi Sea coastal polynya off Barrow, Alaska, USA, in winter 2009/10, using moored salinity/temperature sensors and Ice Profiling Sonar (IPS) data along with satellite data. Oceanographic data from two moorings revealed episodic events of potential supercooling at 30–40m depth, including the possibility of in situ supercooling, while the polynya was open. We identified frazil ice-like signals in the IPS data down to 5–15 m depth, associated with large heat loss and windy, turbulent conditions in an active polynya. This likely represents the first IPS observation of frazil ice in the marine environment. On the day of the maximum signal of frazil ice, spaceborne synthetic aperture radar shows streaks of high backscatter within the polynya, indicating active frazil ice formation just downwind of the mooring sites. In addition, the longer-term potential supercooling that persisted for 1–3 weeks occurred twice despite the absence of polynya activity at the mooring sites. These events occurred during periods dominated by the northeastward current. A series of coastal polynyas had formed southwest of the mooring sites prior to these events. Thus, the water masses with potential supercooling were likely advected from these polynyas.

Poleward eddy heat flux anomalies associated with recent Arctic sea ice loss

Details of the characteristics of upward planetary wave propagation associated with Arctic sea-ice loss under present climate conditions are examined using reanalysis data and simulation results. Recent Arctic sea-ice loss results in increased stratospheric poleward eddy heat fluxes in the eastern and central Eurasia regions and enhanced upward propagation of planetary-scale waves in the stratosphere. A linear decomposition scheme reveals that this modulation of the planetary waves arises from coupling of the climatological planetary wave field with temperature anomalies for the eastern Eurasia region and with meridional wind anomalies for the central Eurasia region. Propagation of stationary Rossby wave packets results in a dynamic link between these temperature and meridional wind anomalies with sea-ice loss over the Barents–Kara Sea. The results provide strong evidence that recent Arctic sea-ice loss significantly modulates atmospheric circulation in winter to modify poleward eddy heat fluxes so as to drive stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes.

Interannual fluctuations of the relationship between winter precipitation and air temperature in the heavy-snowfall zone of Japan

Abstract Regions of Japan facing the Sea of Japan have some of the world’s deepest seasonal snowpack, although air temperatures averaged over the coldest winter months (January-February) are above 0°C in this mid-altitude zone (35–40˚ N). Therefore, even a slight temperature increase is likely to drastically decrease the snow depth in this area by changing the precipitation form from snow to rain. In this study, to enhance understanding of winter precipitation conditions, we introduce the winter precipitation curve (WPC), which plots the distribution of winter precipitation (December-February) against the corresponding air temperature using hourly data. We then examine the relationship between the WPC and regional climate conditions. The WPC was classified into two types in the study: the single-peak (SP) type, having one sharp peak near 0°C, and the multiple-peaks (MP) type, having several small peaks. Here ‘peak’ indicates that precipitation frequently occurs at a certain temperature. Peaks of the MP type changed position with fluctuations in mean winter temperature, but the peak of the SP type moved only slightly despite annual fluctuations in winter mean temperature. One of the multiple peaks of the MP type appeared at ∼0°C and this peak also remained nearly stationary with fluctuations in winter mean temperature. The peak of the WPC appearing near 0°C in both the SP and MP types likely resulted from the development of the 0°C isothermal layer due to the cooling effect of melting snow particles.

Winter Water Formation in Coastal Polynyas of the Eastern Chukchi Shelf: Pacific and Atlantic Influences

Water properties and formation processes of Alaskan Coastal Winter Water (ACWW) over the eastern Chukchi shelf along the Alaska coast, the so-called Barrow Canyon pathway, are examined using data from moorings, atmospheric reanalysis, satellite-derived sea-ice production (SIP), and a numerical tracer experiment. Along this pathway, Pacific Winter Water (PWW) can be modified to produce ACWW through SIP accompanied by production of cold, saline polynya water in the coastal polynyas, upwelling of warm Atlantic Water (AW), and mixing processes on the shelf. Three different types of ACWW are formed: (i) a mixture of AW and PWW, (ii) a mixture of AW and polynya water, and (iii) hypersaline polynya water. The northeasterly winds, correlated with the north-south atmospheric pressure gradient between Beaufort High and Aleutian Low, are common triggers of polynya SIP episodes and AW upwelling in the Barrow Coastal Polynya (BCP). Due to the dual impact of northeasterly winds, PWW modification processes in the BCP are more complicated than what occurs elsewhere in the Chukchi Polynya. The impact of AW upwelling on the ACWW formation is most prominent in the BCP, usually centered along the coast. All types of ACWW are thought to be basically transported westward or northwestward with the Chukchi slope current and/or Beaufort Gyre and finally contribute to maintenance of the lower halocline layer especially over the Chukchi Borderland, Northwind Ridge, and southern Canada Basin. Even in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, ACWW properties are strongly influenced by both Atlantic-origin and Pacific-origin waters.