Kazumasa Oguro

Public debt accumulation and fiscal consolidation

In this study, we analyse the relationship between interest rates on government bonds (GB) and the fiscal consolidation rule by using an overlapping generation model with endogenous and stochastic growth settings. Our key findings are summarized as follows. First, contrary to conventional view, we find that interest rates on GB may decline as public debt accumulates relative to private capital. Second, the simulation reveals that the economy may exhibit discrete changes with divergent interest rates, implying that the observed trend of relatively low interest rates on GB with public debt accumulation may not continue indefinitely in the future. Third, fiscal consolidation rule plays a key role in determining equilibrium interest rates.

Designing the optimal public pension system

This paper uses a two-period overlapping generations model in order to provide a theoretical design for an optimal public pension system based on a partial equilibrium analysis. Household preferences only depend on two periods consumption and leisure and is homogeneous of degree m with respect to consumption in the working and retired periods. We present characteristic features of an optimal public pension system in this paper. First, differences in the population growth rate do not affect the relative level of the optimal net lifetime burden rate of each generation. Second, if m≠0 or m