Keishiro Hara

Research needs and challenges faced in supporting scenario design in sustainability science: a literature review

A number of scenarios have been created to explore possible images of and transitions to a sustainable society, as famously represented by the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These can be valuable as underlying information for policy makers making plans for a low-carbon society. Although many researchers have developed individual methods that can be used for designing scenarios, research agendas or challenges for supporting scenario design activities have not been sufficiently discussed. Based on an intensive literature review of existing studies, this paper aims to clarify requisites and challenges for supporting scenario design, particularly in the context of sustainability science. Given that the value of designing scenarios is to help generate and communicate various ideas about the future as argued by sustainability science literature, scenarios are often created with stakeholder participation, through iterative cycles that are composed of three steps: (a) idea generation, (b) idea integration and scenario description, and (c) scenario evaluation. The results of our literature review also show that, though a wide array of methods and tools are available to support some of the steps, there are research issues to be further addressed in supporting scenario design. They include (1) accumulating existing scenarios and simulators as a promising approach to structuring knowledge about sustainability science and (2) ensuring the transparency of the logic underlying scenarios to facilitate communication between participants. Addressing these points will enhance support for sustainability scenario design.

Initial design process of the sustainability science ontology for knowledge-sharing to support co-deliberation

Implementation of the sustainability science (SS) approach is often difficult because of poor communication between experts from different academic fields. We focused on ontology engineering as a method of knowledge structuring that supports the co-deliberation process. However, SS is too broad for a few experts to construct an ontology because SS targets and covers almost all existing research fields from the viewpoint of problem-solving. The N-iteration process is required for completing an SS ontology. In the present paper, we discuss the initial design process for constructing an ontology on SS from the aspect of a knowledge-sharing tool to support co-deliberation. First, we identified the SS ontology by referring to the existing literature. Second, we traced the structuring process of the SS ontology, which is independent of the existing research domain. Third, we compared the SS ontology with existing ontologies or concept structures on SS. Fourth, we assessed the SS ontology produced in the initial process in terms of relevance and coverage and addressed areas for improvement in order to facilitate co-deliberation among researchers from different domains. As a result of developing the SS ontology and applying it to the mapping tool that we developed based on the ontology, we found the following three points: the SS ontology enables us to define concepts relevant to SS without overlapping by distinguishing part-of and attribute-of relationships at the upper level of the ontology; the SS-based mapping tool successfully represents the potential countermeasures required by the targeted problem for all scientific fields except experimental engineering; however, the SS ontology requires further improvement in order to represent the conceptual linkage arising from compound and secondary problems and the fulfillment of classes at the lower hierarchy of Shortage problem, and requires slots for the entire hierarchy. In addition, based on the discussion of the areas for improvement, we found that missing slots and classes should be added in the process in which we use or improve tools corresponding to a variety of requirements for supporting co-deliberation. In this way, we are able to propose an incremental process for constructing the SS ontology from the aspect of a knowledge-sharing tool to support co-deliberation.

Integrated resource management towards a sustainable Asia: policy and strategy evolution in Japan and China

One of the biggest challenges Asian nations face is how to increase their economic growth while minimising the impact on the environment and reducing their dependence on imported resources. Japan paid great attention to its condition as a resource-dependent country after the oil crisis in the mid 1970s and now has one of the most eco-efficient economies in the world. The rapid economic growth of China in the last two decades has also pushed the government to focus on improving efficiency as it is shown in its 11th five year plan. This article addresses the evolution of environmental policies in Japan and China and proposes viable measures towards a sustainable Asia. These measures take into account the experience of Japan in addressing its environmental issues and is based on the reduce, reuse, recycle (3R) initiative.

Analysis of Land use Changes and Environmental Loads during Urbanization in China

abstract Urban expansion in China has led to rapid urbanization occupying a huge amount of cultivated land, and in turn, to adverse effects on city environments. By collecting data from 30 big cities in China, including the 4 biggest municipalities and 26 provincial government cities, this paper analyzes the current status of urbanization and identifies the land use changes as determined by a geographic information system (GIS) analysis. It also examines the relationships between urbanization level, the economy and environmental status, by applying a regression model. Finally, the paper proposes a perspective for promoting sound urbanization under the Circular Economy (CE) in China. The authors determined that 14,996 km2 of cultivated land have been converted into urban built-up areas in China between 1990 and 2000. Above all, the changes in the three megalopolises of the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Pearl River Delta were substantial and the land use efficiencies of these areas are higher than in the other areas. The authors also found that urbanization is positively associated with per capita GDP. The regression analysis for per capita solid waste indicated an inverted-U shape relationship with urbanization.

Approaches to induce behavioral changes with respect to electricity consumption

Facilitating behavioral changes is indispensable for reducing energy demand and ultimately achieving a sustainable society. However, individual methods by which to induce such behavioral changes have been considered in specific fields and disciplines. In the present study, we carried out an intensive review of academic journal articles and reports related to approaches, instruments, and practices of demand control in electricity and relevant behavioral changes across various fields and disciplines, such as engineering, economics, policy research, and psychology. Our goal is to discuss the effectiveness of these approaches and instruments and to discuss the relevant conditions for effective policy design to induce behavioral changes in a comprehensive manner. We selected and reviewed 110 papers published between 1978 and 2015 covering the practices in 17 countries that appear to be the most relevant to our research purposes. In general, empirical studies show that demand control approaches such as dynamic pricing and information feedback either shift the peak load or reduce electricity consumption. In addition, the effectiveness of an instrument depends on the characteristics of the location, the household, the industry, and the climate. We found only a small amount of literature on the life cycle impact on energy consumption and life cycle costs, although these studies are essential for better policy design for realizing energy savings and a sustainable society.

Integrated Scenario Design for Sustainability Research – Concept, Framework and Challenges

Sustainability research (SR) is an emerging academic research field that aims to point pathways toward a sustainable society. This paper takes designing scenarios as a means of knowledge structuring so that researchers from various disciplines are able to systematically share various expertise regarding sustainability issues. In this paper, we propose the concept of integrated scenario design (ISD) that reflects the scientific and social knowledge into scenarios in a comprehensive and dynamic manner. The ISD concept also intends to give feedback to the real world from what is described in the scenarios in order to help to bring about innovations necessary for transitions from existing social systems to a sustainable society. Based on the ISD concept, we clarify research issues that should be addressed in terms of designing and deploying scenarios in SR.

Scenario analysis of cement production in China: the role of policy and technology in the pathway to sustainable society

China’s annual cement production is by far the largest in the world. Although it is a necessity for economic development, its production requires huge amount of energy inputs, adversely affecting sustainable development. In this paper, we identify the determination of cement demand in China and demonstrate scenario analysis toward 2015. We demonstrate that while technological development in the cement industry in China is important in terms of reducing energy input, the most critical factor is to achieve balanced economic growth. In particular, our results suggest the importance of the achievement of the economic growth target in the 12th Five-Years-Initiative of China, addressing the effective urban planning and financial mechanism for technological development and diffusion.

Land Use Change Patterns and Sustainable Urban Development in China

Abstract This paper examined the land use change (LUC) and sustainability index of major Chinese cities to develop a model for implementing more efficient land use and sustainable urban development (SUD) practices in China. The authors show that substantial LUC occurred across 29 Chinese cities during the 1990-2000 period. In particular, cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area, and the Pearl River Delta underwent considerable LUC while achieving efficient land use. Characterization of the different LUC patterns of these cities revealed that land use efficiency differed between cities. The components of sustainability, including socio-economic, environmental and resource use indexes, were also clarified. Factors such as socio-economic development had the effect of increasing the sustainability scores of coastal cities relative to the scores of northern and industrial cities further inland. Regression analysis revealed which factors had the greatest effect on the level of environmental index. The results showed that industrial activities, population trends, and the pattern of land use all significantly affect the environmental component and SUD of cities. Finally, the network of cities in the YRD and a land use model in which cities undertake resource endowments, including land for improving SUD, was discussed.

Sustainability trend in China and prospects of assessment methodology

This paper briefly reviews different types of sustainability indicators being applied and discusses the trends of sustainability in China by time-series scores based on a set of indicators. The analyses indicate that provinces in China with high socioeconomic conditions tend to have better environmental status and stronger capacity to use resources and energy in an efficient manner. The paper then argues that the perspectives of future generations should be taken into account in sustainability assessments, highlighting that the development of an assessment methodology with a time dimension for future generations will be urgently needed to reflect the genuine nature of sustainability.

A Framework for Comprehensive Sustainability Research Focusing on the Meso-level

Sustainability has become the most important research field for policy makers, corporate executives, scientist, and engineers. Yet, most of the topics addressing sustainability have tended to exclusively focus on details in a specific domain or to lack comprehensiveness in their scope and approaches. The objective of this paper is to propose a comprehensive framework to foster sustainability research by bridging related elements, in which engineering and managerial approaches are integrated into scientific approaches. The framework consists of three components: scope, domain and time. We focus on modeling at the meso-level as a key to bridging system elements from the perspectives of the three components. Through case studies, this paper demonstrates how the framework functions in terms of pursuing sustainability research. We attempt to identify research agenda concerning sustainability based on the framework by analyzing examples of research topics. The proposed framework and research agenda are found to be useful for providing a perspective for promotion of sustainability research in various fields.