Keith Crane

The Polish economic collapse: Contributing factors and economic costs

Abstract The rapid expansion of industrial output in Poland during the 1970s came to an abrupt halt during the latter part of the decade. This paper examines the factors contributing to the economic collapse and measures the economic costs in terms of foregone output. The basic results indicate that, although a decline in hard-currency imports and labor-hours worked were substantial contributing factors, most of the decline in output is accounted for by factors such as planning, managerial difficulties, or political unrest. In addition the gap between actual and potential industrial output reached more than 35%.

Russian Investment in the Commonwealth of Independent States

The paper by three RAND Corporation specialists analyzes the extent, rationale, and role of Russian investment in other member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Based on a unique, comprehensive survey, it evaluates differences between Russian and Western investors—in particular, the effects of Russian business practices in promoting or retarding reforms directed at expanding market activities, improving governance, and reducing corruption. The authors also assess the extent of Russian government involvement in investment decisions and explore whether that government has an operational agenda for encouraging investment in other countries of the CIS. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F21, F23, O18. 4 figures, 4 tables, 37 references, 2 appendices.

Making Liberia safe : transformation of the national security sector

Abstract : The security institutions, forces, and practices of the regime of Charles Taylor, Liberias former president, met none of the essential criteria for a sound security sector: coherence, legitimacy, effectiveness, and affordability. Yet even under new, able, and decent leadership, the old structures and ways are unworkable, wasteful, and confused, and they enjoy neither the trust nor the cooperation of the Liberian people at this critical juncture. It follows that Liberia must make a clean break, adopting a new security architecture, forces, management structure, and law. The government of President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has made security sector transformation a high priority, and the United Nations, the United States, and others are helping Liberia build new forces. What has been done and planned so far to transform the Liberian security apparatus is valid and important. At the same time, Liberia and its partners need an overall security architecture, accompanied by a strategy to create it. Without an architecture and strategy, setting priorities will become increasingly difficult; gaps, redundancies, confusion, and political squabbling over forces are likely. In offering an architecture and strategy, this study identified additional measures, including additional capabilities, that would make Liberias security sector more coherent, legitimate, effective, and affordable. This report is the final component of the RAND Corporations research project with the U.S. government under which RAND was asked to advise the Liberian and U.S. governments on security sector transformation in Liberia. By agreement with the U.S. and Liberian governments, and by RANDs own tradition, the analysis and findings of this report are independent.

Developing Iraq's security sector : the Coalition Provisional Authority's experience

Looks at the Coalition Provisional Authoritys efforts to rebuild Iraqs security sector and provides lessons learned. From May 2003 to June 28, 2004 (when it handed over authority to the Iraqi Interim Government), the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) worked to field Iraqi security forces and to develop security sector institutions. This book - all of whose authors were advisors to the CPA-breaks out the various elements of Iraqs security sector, including the defense, interior, and justice sectors, and assesses the CPAs successes and failures.

Military spending in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland

Abstract This paper examines the location of military expenditures in the national income accounts of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, estimates expenditures for these countries, and compares these estimates with published defense budgets. Expenditures on military personnel are constructed using military force estimates, and cost-of-living and wage data. Military procurement estimates are constructed from input-output tables and trade data. The sum of expenditure estimates by category is roughly of the same size as the published budgets suggesting that reported military spending may reflect almost all of actual spending. This finding contrasts with the Soviet case where actual spending is a multiple of the reported budgets.

U.S. policy options for Iraq : a reassessment

This book examines five possible U.S. strategies for Iraq. It offers recommendations for ways in which U.S. political, security, and economic policies in Iraq could be improved. It argues that the focus of policy must be the security of Iraqs population. It also emphasizes the need for policymakers to prepare and plan not only for success, but also for failure.

Future Challenges for the Arab World: The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends

Abstract : The purpose of this technical report is to help USAF and Department of Defense analysts assess likely demographic and economic challenges in the Arab world through 2020, a region of primary concern for U.S. security and foreign policies. The report is designed to provide a more-informed platform on which to build U.S. defense planning and policy. The report references conflicts in the region but focuses on longer-term, region-wide trends that are likely to affect U.S. interests no matter how events in Iraq or between Israel and Palestine unfold.

Removing export-credit subsidies to the Soviet bloc: Who gets hurt and by how much

Abstract Estimates of Soviet Bloc import elasticities and of the value of credit subsidies on loans to the bloc in 1981 are used in order to simulate the impact on OECD exports, if these subsidies had been eliminated in that year. The elasticity estimates indicate that price changes have little bearing on hard currency spent on a particular commodity by the Soviet Bloc. If subsidies had been eliminated in 1981, the total decline in OECD exports to the Bloc would have been less than 5%, and for any country, if proportionally distributed among suppliers, no more than 6%, no less than 2%.

Putting a Tax on Oil

We investigate the possibility of using a percentage tax on crude oil and imported refined oil products consumed in the United States to fund the nation’s transportation infrastructure. This tax on oil could replace existing gasoline and diesel taxes and, potentially, other transportation taxes, such as taxes on airline tickets. The revenues from this tax could be used to fully fund federal infrastructure expenditures on highways, public transit, and aviation. The goal of this article is to raise the key issues associated with using an oil tax to fund U.S. transportation infrastructure, identify decisions Congress would need to make in designing such a tax, and outline some of the likely implications of adopting such a tax.

Operation IRAQI FREEDOM: Decisive War, Elusive Peace

Soon after Operation IRAQI FREEDOM began in March 2003, RAND Arroyo Center began a project, completed in January 2006, to produce an authoritative account of the planning and execution of combat and stability operations in Iraq and to recommend changes to Army plans, operational concepts, doctrine, and Title 10 functions. This report presents a broad overview of the study findings based on unclassified source material.