Kelly M. Babchishin

Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 With Older Sex Offenders: Revised Age Weights

Actuarial risk assessment scales and their associated recidivism estimates are generally developed on samples of offenders whose average age is well below 50 years. Criminal behavior of all types declines with age; consequently, actuarial scales tend to overestimate recidivism for older offenders. The current study aimed to develop a revised scoring system for two risk assessment tools (Static-99 and Static-2002) that would more accurately describe older offenders’ risk of recidivism. Using data from 8,390 sex offenders derived from 24 separate samples, age was found to add incremental predictive validity to both Static-99 and Static-2002. After creating new age weights, the resulting instruments (Static-99R and Static-2002R) had only slightly higher relative predictive accuracy. The absolute recidivism estimates, however, provided a substantially better fit for older offenders than the recidivism estimates from the original scales. We encourage evaluators to adopt the revised scales with the new age weights.

Contact Sexual Offending by Men With Online Sexual Offenses

There is much concern about the likelihood that online sexual offenders (particularly online child pornography offenders) have either committed or will commit offline sexual offenses involving contact with a victim. This study addresses this question in two meta-analyses: the first examined the contact sexual offense histories of online offenders, whereas the second examined the recidivism rates from follow-up studies of online offenders. The first meta-analysis found that approximately 1 in 8 online offenders (12%) have an officially known contact sexual offense history at the time of their index offense (k = 21, N = 4,464). Approximately one in two (55%) online offenders admitted to a contact sexual offense in the six studies that had self-report data (N = 523). The second meta-analysis revealed that 4.6% of online offenders committed a new sexual offense of some kind during a 1.5- to 6-year follow-up (k = 9, N = 2,630); 2.0% committed a contact sexual offense and 3.4% committed a new child pornography offense. The results of these two quantitative reviews suggest that there may be a distinct subgroup of online-only offenders who pose relatively low risk of committing contact sexual offenses in the future.

The Characteristics of Online Sex Offenders: A Meta-Analysis

There is much debate as to whether online offenders are a distinct group of sex offenders or if they are simply typical sex offenders using a new technology. A meta-analysis was conducted to examine the extent to which online and offline offenders differ on demographic and psychological variables. Online offenders were more likely to be Caucasian and were slightly younger than offline offenders. In terms of psychological variables, online offenders had greater victim empathy, greater sexual deviancy, and lower impression management than offline offenders. Both online and offline offenders reported greater rates of childhood physical and sexual abuse than the general population. Additionally, online offenders were more likely to be Caucasian, younger, single, and unemployed compared with the general population. Many of the observed differences can be explained by assuming that online offenders, compared with offline offenders, have greater self-control and more psychological barriers to acting on their deviant interests.

Absolute Recidivism Rates Predicted By Static-99R and Static-2002R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tools Vary Across Samples A Meta-Analysis

There has been considerable research on relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination) in offender risk assessment (e.g., Are high-risk offenders more likely to reoffend than low-risk offenders?), but virtually no research on the accuracy or stability of absolute recidivism estimates (i.e., calibration). The current study aimed to fill this gap by examining absolute and relative risk estimates for certain Static sex offender assessment tools. Logistic regression coefficients for Static-99R and Static-2002R were combined through meta-analysis (8,106 sex offenders; 23 samples). The sexual recidivism rates for typical sex offenders are lower than the public generally believes. Static-99R and Static-2002R both demonstrated remarkably consistent relative predictive accuracy across studies. For both scales, however, the predicted recidivism rates within each risk score demonstrated large and significant variability across studies. The authors discuss how the variability in recidivism rates complicates the estimation of recidivism probability in applied assessments.

Online child pornography offenders are different: a meta-analysis of the characteristics of online and offline sex offenders against children

The current meta-analysis compared the characteristics of online child pornography-only offenders, typical (offline) sex offenders against children, and offenders with both child pornography and contact sex offences against children (mixed). Based on 30 unique samples (comparison ns ranging from 98 to 2,702), the meta-analysis found key differences between groups. Offenders who committed contact sex offences were more likely to have access to children than those with only child pornography offences. In contrast, offenders who used the internet to commit sexual offences had greater access to the internet than those with contact sex offenders. Differences between the groups, however, were not limited to differential opportunities. Sex offenders against children and mixed offenders were found to score higher on indicators of antisociality than online child pornography offenders (CPOs). CPOs were also more likely to have psychological barriers to sexual offending than sex offenders against children and mixed offenders (e.g., greater victim empathy). Mixed offenders were found to be the most pedophilic, even more than CPOs. The findings suggest that offenders who restricted their offending behavior to online child pornography offences were different from mixed offenders and offline sex offenders against children, and that mixed offenders were a particularly high risk group.

Attitudes supportive of sexual offending predict recidivism: a meta-analysis

Attitudes supportive of sexual offending figure prominently in theories of sexual offending, as well as in contemporary assessment and treatment practices with sex offenders. Based on 46 samples (n = 13,782), this meta-analysis found that attitudes supportive of sexual offending had a small, yet reasonably consistent, relationship with sexual recidivism (Cohen’s d = .22). To the extent that differences were observed, attitudes predicted recidivism better for child molesters than for rapists. There was no difference in the predictive accuracy of attitudes assessed at pretreatment or at posttreatment. The current study indicates that attitudes supportive of sexual offending is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sex offenders. However, given that many different constructs have been designated as sex offender attitudes, further research and theory is needed to understand how these various constructs contribute to recidivism.

Online solicitation offenders are different from child pornography offenders and lower risk contact sexual offenders.

The current study compared 38 lower risk (based on actuarial risk assessments) men convicted of contact sexual offenses against children, 38 child pornography offenders, and 70 solicitation offenders (also known as luring or traveler offenders). Solicitation and child pornography offenders were better educated than contact offenders but did not differ on other sociodemographic variables. In comparison to child pornography offenders, solicitation offenders had lower capacity for relationship stability and lower levels of sex drive/preoccupation and deviant sexual preference. Solicitation offenders were also more problematic than lower risk contact offenders on sex drive/preoccupation and capacity for relationship stability and had greater self-reported use of child pornography. Differences between groups on two actuarial risk measures, the Static-99 and the VASOR, were inconsistent. This study suggests that solicitation offenders differ in meaningful ways from lower risk contact offenders and child pornography offenders and, consequently, in risk, treatment, and supervision needs.

Measuring Treatment Change in Sex Offenders Clinical and Statistical Significance

The main purpose of this study was to assess treatment change at both the group level and the individual level with a sample of 313 adult male sex offenders. Generally, the results from the group-level analyses were more positive than those from the individual-level analyses. The group-level analyses revealed significant change of medium magnitude on most of the measures, whereas the individual-level analyses indicated more modest gains, with approximately one third of participants showing reliable change and reaching functional levels posttreatment. When representative norms are available, clinical significance provides a clear and established method not only for assessing the effectiveness of sex offender treatment programs but also for evaluating the progress of individual clients.

Even highly correlated measures can add incrementally to predicting recidivism among sex offenders.

Criterion-referenced measures, such as those used in the assessment of crime and violence, prioritize predictive accuracy (discrimination) at the expense of construct validity. In this article, we compared the discrimination and incremental validity of three commonly used criterion-referenced measures for sex offenders (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism [RRASOR], Static-99R, and Static-2002R). In a meta-analysis of 20 samples (n = 7,491), Static-99R and Static-2002R provided similar discrimination but outperformed the RRASOR in the prediction of sexual, violent, and any recidivism. Remarkably, despite large correlations between them (rs ranging from .70 to .92), these risk scales consistently added incremental validity to one another. The direction of the incremental effects, however, was not consistently positive. When controlling for the other measures, high scores on the RRASOR were associated with lower risk for violent and any recidivism. We also examined different methods of combining risk scales and found that the averaging approach produced better discrimination than choosing the highest score and produced better calibration than either choosing the lowest or highest risk score. The findings reinforce the importance of understanding the psychological content of criterion-referenced measures, even when the sole purpose is to predict a particular outcome and provide some direction concerning the best methods for combining risk scales.

Long-Term Predictive Validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 A Comparison With the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive accuracy of the Risk Matrix 2000 on an independent sample of 351 sexual offenders, followed in the community for an average duration of 11.4 years (range 0-20 years, SD = 4.4 years). For comparison purposes, this study also examines the predictive accuracy of two other risk assessment instruments, specifically modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). Results indicate that the Risk Matrix 2000 demonstrates convergent validity by correlating with the other risk assessment instruments. Moreover, the Risk Matrix 2000 is predictive of recidivism above chance levels, exhibiting medium to large effect sizes, although in general, the other two instruments, particularly the SORAG, are superior. Results also indicate differences in predictive validity when comparing 2-year, 5-year, and variable follow-up periods. Finally, a cumulative meta-analysis compares and integrates current findings with those obtained from the accumulation of previous studies, and new cumulative estimates are provided.