Leslie Helmus

The Principles of Effective Correctional Treatment Also Apply To Sexual Offenders A Meta-Analysis

The effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders remains controversial, even though it is widely agreed that certain forms of human service interventions reduce the recidivism rates of general offenders. The current review examined whether the principles associated with effective treatments for general offenders (risk-need-responsivity; RNR) also apply to sexual offender treatment. Based on a meta-analysis of 23 recidivism outcome studies meeting basic criteria for study quality, the unweighted sexual and general recidivism rates for the treated sexual offenders were lower than the rates observed for the comparison groups (10.9%, n = 3,121 vs. 19.2%, n = 3,625 for sexual recidivism; 31.8%, n = 1,979 vs. 48.3%, n = 2,822 for any recidivism). Programs that adhered to the RNR principles showed the largest reductions in sexual and general recidivism. Given the consistency of the current findings with the general offender rehabilitation literature, the authors believe that the RNR principles should be a major consideration in the design and implementation of treatment programs for sexual offenders.

Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 With Older Sex Offenders: Revised Age Weights

Actuarial risk assessment scales and their associated recidivism estimates are generally developed on samples of offenders whose average age is well below 50 years. Criminal behavior of all types declines with age; consequently, actuarial scales tend to overestimate recidivism for older offenders. The current study aimed to develop a revised scoring system for two risk assessment tools (Static-99 and Static-2002) that would more accurately describe older offenders’ risk of recidivism. Using data from 8,390 sex offenders derived from 24 separate samples, age was found to add incremental predictive validity to both Static-99 and Static-2002. After creating new age weights, the resulting instruments (Static-99R and Static-2002R) had only slightly higher relative predictive accuracy. The absolute recidivism estimates, however, provided a substantially better fit for older offenders than the recidivism estimates from the original scales. We encourage evaluators to adopt the revised scales with the new age weights.

Absolute Recidivism Rates Predicted By Static-99R and Static-2002R Sex Offender Risk Assessment Tools Vary Across Samples A Meta-Analysis

There has been considerable research on relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination) in offender risk assessment (e.g., Are high-risk offenders more likely to reoffend than low-risk offenders?), but virtually no research on the accuracy or stability of absolute recidivism estimates (i.e., calibration). The current study aimed to fill this gap by examining absolute and relative risk estimates for certain Static sex offender assessment tools. Logistic regression coefficients for Static-99R and Static-2002R were combined through meta-analysis (8,106 sex offenders; 23 samples). The sexual recidivism rates for typical sex offenders are lower than the public generally believes. Static-99R and Static-2002R both demonstrated remarkably consistent relative predictive accuracy across studies. For both scales, however, the predicted recidivism rates within each risk score demonstrated large and significant variability across studies. The authors discuss how the variability in recidivism rates complicates the estimation of recidivism probability in applied assessments.

Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders: A Multi-site Study of Static-2002

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.

High-Risk Sex Offenders May Not Be High Risk Forever

This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few years after release, and decreased substantially the longer individuals remained sex offense–free in the community. This pattern was particularly strong for the high-risk sexual offenders (defined by Static-99R scores). Whereas the 5-year sexual recidivism rate for high-risk sex offenders was 22% from the time of release, this rate decreased to 4.2% for the offenders in the same static risk category who remained offense-free in the community for 10 years. The recidivism rates of the low-risk offenders were consistently low (1%-5%) for all time periods. The results suggest that offense history is a valid, but time-dependent, indicator of the propensity to sexually reoffend. Further research is needed to explain the substantial rate of desistance by high-risk sexual offenders.

Attitudes supportive of sexual offending predict recidivism: a meta-analysis

Attitudes supportive of sexual offending figure prominently in theories of sexual offending, as well as in contemporary assessment and treatment practices with sex offenders. Based on 46 samples (n = 13,782), this meta-analysis found that attitudes supportive of sexual offending had a small, yet reasonably consistent, relationship with sexual recidivism (Cohen’s d = .22). To the extent that differences were observed, attitudes predicted recidivism better for child molesters than for rapists. There was no difference in the predictive accuracy of attitudes assessed at pretreatment or at posttreatment. The current study indicates that attitudes supportive of sexual offending is a psychologically meaningful risk factor for sex offenders. However, given that many different constructs have been designated as sex offender attitudes, further research and theory is needed to understand how these various constructs contribute to recidivism.

Developing Non-Arbitrary Metrics for Risk Communication: Percentile Ranks for the Static-99/R and Static-2002/R Sexual Offender Risk Tools

The aim of this article was to advance risk communication by examining percentile ranks as a non-arbitrary metric for quantifying risk. Although percentile ranks have a simple meaning, their calculation is complicated by ties (i.e., more than one offender having the same score). The strengths and weaknesses of percentile ranks are discussed, as are the options for calculating and presenting them in applied risk communication. As a demonstration, percentile ranks for Canadian sexual offenders were computed for the most popular sexual offender risk assessment tools (Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002 and Static-2002R). The distribution of Static-99 scores was highly stable in international comparisons of sexual offenders from Canada (1990 to 2005; n = 2,011), Sweden (1993 to 1997; n = 1,278) and California (2008 to 2010; n = 37,600). The major limitation of percentile ranks is that they measure the “unusualness” of scores in a particular reference group, and may not correspond to other indicators of relative or absolute risk. Consequently, we recommend that evaluators presenting percentile ranks should consistently provide recidivism base rate information so that decision makers do not confuse the rarity of a score with estimates of absolute recidivism risk.

Even highly correlated measures can add incrementally to predicting recidivism among sex offenders.

Criterion-referenced measures, such as those used in the assessment of crime and violence, prioritize predictive accuracy (discrimination) at the expense of construct validity. In this article, we compared the discrimination and incremental validity of three commonly used criterion-referenced measures for sex offenders (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism [RRASOR], Static-99R, and Static-2002R). In a meta-analysis of 20 samples (n = 7,491), Static-99R and Static-2002R provided similar discrimination but outperformed the RRASOR in the prediction of sexual, violent, and any recidivism. Remarkably, despite large correlations between them (rs ranging from .70 to .92), these risk scales consistently added incremental validity to one another. The direction of the incremental effects, however, was not consistently positive. When controlling for the other measures, high scores on the RRASOR were associated with lower risk for violent and any recidivism. We also examined different methods of combining risk scales and found that the averaging approach produced better discrimination than choosing the highest score and produced better calibration than either choosing the lowest or highest risk score. The findings reinforce the importance of understanding the psychological content of criterion-referenced measures, even when the sole purpose is to predict a particular outcome and provide some direction concerning the best methods for combining risk scales.

Quantifying the relative risk of sex offenders: risk ratios for static-99R.

Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe (N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates.

Taking Stock of 15 Years of Research on the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA): A Critical Review

This review offers a critical summary of 15 years of research and application of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment guide (SARA). Main areas of focus are how the scale was developed, strengths and limitations of individual items, and professional uses, including who it has been validated on and the reliability and predictive accuracy of the scale. Based on current evidence, the SARA is a defensible method for intimate partner violence risk assessment; however, users should be cognizant of its strengths and limitations (discussed in this paper) in order to guide their ethical/appropriate application of the instrument.