Kenneth Bernard Karlsson

Model for Determining Geographical Distribution of Heat Saving Potentials in Danish Building Stock

Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark. A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing data about physical properties for 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Consequently, the results of the analysis can be represented on a single building level. Under the assumption that buildings with the most profitable heat savings are renovated first, the consequences of heat savings for the economy and energy system have been quantified and geographically referenced. The possibilities for further improvements of the model and the application to other geographical regions have been discussed.

A Long-Term Strategy to Decarbonise the Danish Inland Passenger Transport Sector

This study applies a novel modelling framework to assess how alternative policies may contribute to a fossil-free transport sector for Denmark and the potential contribution they may have to a well-below 2 °C world. The approach adopted consists of linking an energy system optimisation model, TIMES-DKMS, with a private car simulation model, the Danish Car Stock Model. The results of this study include the magnitude of CO2 abatement presented alongside the corresponding change in tax revenue generated through combinations of policies focusing on the derogation of motor taxes for low emission vehicles and banning the sale of the internal combustion engines. The resulting cumulative emissions from the Danish energy system are also compared to a range of national carbon budgets, calculated to adhere to various levels of global temperature rise at different levels of confidence. The results indicate that a ban on the sale of the internal combustion engines enforced in 2025 would enable the largest cut in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions of all the policies considered. However, none of the policies analysed comply with Denmark’s carbon budget capable of maintaining the increase of global temperature limited to 1.5 °C.

The Role of Population, Affluence, Technological Development and Diet in a Below 2 °C World

The rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant temperature anomaly in the global climate can be simplified to a function of (1) the global population, (2) economic activity and (3) technological development for thought experiments. Diet, given the embodied process emissions in producing food, is also acknowledged as an important factor. Growth in the first two factors tends to increase environmental impacts while technological development can reduce them. In this chapter, the impact from these four variables, their interdependencies and importance are illustrated. To do so, three different model frameworks are combined namely IPAT, Ecological Footprint and Integrated Assessment Modelling, to illustrate the challenges to finding pathways to maintain a well below 2 °C world. The model setup developed for this chapter estimates the global mean temperature increase to 2100 and the needed land area to support human life as a function of population, affluence, technological development and diet. It is shown that focusing on technology development alone will likely not be enough to mitigate global warming and stay well below a 2 °C temperature increase. Therefore, the discussion about population, consumption, development and diet shifting should be high on the agenda for reducing energy demands and for increasing the feasibility of maintaining a well below 2 °C world.

Introduction: Energy Systems Modelling for a Sustainable World

Since the first oil crisis more than forty years ago, concerns regarding energy security, economic impacts, air pollution, climate change, energy poverty, and societal well-being have been repeatedly calling for an energy revolution. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change are unambiguous: in order to identify the key technologies to achieve the energy revolution and the appropriate programs and policies that will bring them to the market, decision makers need robust policy analyses that encompass the relevant global, regional national and local factors, as well as increasing details and synergies across the complex issues which characterizes the energy system. Given their intrinsic nature, energy system models are particularly well suited to provide comprehensive, integrated and robust information on the short, medium and long term transformation of the energy systems under multiple constraints—economic, technology, environment and societal factors. This chapter introduces the development and use of energy system models by the members of the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme on energy systems modelling, namely the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (IEA-ETSAP) to support the definition of energy and climate policies in an increasing number of countries. It also provides an overview of the 23 case studies presented in this book, all exploring the potential for feasible roadmaps at global, national or local scale compatible with a well below 2 ℃ future. They all show that those roadmaps are extremely challenging, and early action is essential.

Economic optimization of the Danish energy systems through minimization of direct costs as well as indirect costs related to air born pollution

Economic optimization of the Danish energy systems through minimization of direct costs as well as indirect costs related to air born pollution Eigil Kaas(1), A Baklanov(2), J Brandt(3), H Brønnum-Hansen(4), JH Christensen(3), A Groos(2), K Karlsson(6), M-L Siggaard-Andersen(1), T Sigsgaard(5), J Sørensen(7) (1) University of Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark (2) Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark (3) National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark (4) National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark (5) Institute of Public Health, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark (6) Risø National laboratory, DTU, System Analysis Department, Roskilde, Denmark (7) CAST University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark