Olexandr Balyk

A Long-Term Strategy to Decarbonise the Danish Inland Passenger Transport Sector

This study applies a novel modelling framework to assess how alternative policies may contribute to a fossil-free transport sector for Denmark and the potential contribution they may have to a well-below 2 °C world. The approach adopted consists of linking an energy system optimisation model, TIMES-DKMS, with a private car simulation model, the Danish Car Stock Model. The results of this study include the magnitude of CO2 abatement presented alongside the corresponding change in tax revenue generated through combinations of policies focusing on the derogation of motor taxes for low emission vehicles and banning the sale of the internal combustion engines. The resulting cumulative emissions from the Danish energy system are also compared to a range of national carbon budgets, calculated to adhere to various levels of global temperature rise at different levels of confidence. The results indicate that a ban on the sale of the internal combustion engines enforced in 2025 would enable the largest cut in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions of all the policies considered. However, none of the policies analysed comply with Denmark’s carbon budget capable of maintaining the increase of global temperature limited to 1.5 °C.

The Role of Population, Affluence, Technological Development and Diet in a Below 2 °C World

The rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant temperature anomaly in the global climate can be simplified to a function of (1) the global population, (2) economic activity and (3) technological development for thought experiments. Diet, given the embodied process emissions in producing food, is also acknowledged as an important factor. Growth in the first two factors tends to increase environmental impacts while technological development can reduce them. In this chapter, the impact from these four variables, their interdependencies and importance are illustrated. To do so, three different model frameworks are combined namely IPAT, Ecological Footprint and Integrated Assessment Modelling, to illustrate the challenges to finding pathways to maintain a well below 2 °C world. The model setup developed for this chapter estimates the global mean temperature increase to 2100 and the needed land area to support human life as a function of population, affluence, technological development and diet. It is shown that focusing on technology development alone will likely not be enough to mitigate global warming and stay well below a 2 °C temperature increase. Therefore, the discussion about population, consumption, development and diet shifting should be high on the agenda for reducing energy demands and for increasing the feasibility of maintaining a well below 2 °C world.