Kenneth D. Frederick

Climate change and water resources

Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts following from these effects, and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science, great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels, which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective, the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population, technology, economic conditions, social and political factors, and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered.

Adapting to Climate Impacts on the Supply and Demand for Water

The prospect of climate change adds to future water supply and demand uncertainties and reinforces the need for institutions that facilitate adaptation to changing conditions and promote efficient management of supplies and facilities. High costs and limited opportunities for increasing water supplies with dams, reservoirs, and other infrastructure have curbed the traditional supply-side approach to planning in recent decades. Although new infrastructure may be an appropriate response to climate-induced shifts in hydrologic regimes and water demands, it is difficult to plan for and justify expensive new projects when the magnitude, timing, and even the direction of the changes are unknown. On the other hand, evaluating margins of safety for long-lived structures such as dams and levees should consider the prospect that a greenhouse warming could produce greater hydrologic variability and storm extremes. Integrated river basin management can provide cost-effective increases in reliable supplies in the event of greenhouse warming. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variations and changes in the climate, demand management is critical for balancing future demands with supplies. Although regulatory and voluntary measures belong in a comprehensive demand management strategy, greater reliance on markets and prices to allocate supplies and introduce incentives to conserve will help reduce the costs of adapting to climate change. Federal water planning guidelines allow for consideration of plans incorporating changes in existing statutes, regulations, and other institutional arrangements that might be needed to facilitate water transfers and promote efficient management practices in response to changing supply and demand conditions.

The MINK methodology: background and baseline

A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the region’s climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO2 concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations.

Water Resources Planning Principles and Evaluation Criteria for Climate Change: Summary and Conclusions

The prospect of anthropogenically-induced climate change presents water planners with a variety of challenges. Drawing on work presented in this volume, these challenges are summarized and conceptual issues surrounding strategies for adapting water planning and project evaluation practices to this prospect are examined. The six-step planning process detailed in the Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies (P&G) is described; its ability to incorporate consideration of and responses to possible climate impacts is assessed. The methods of sensitivity analysis, scenario planning, and decision analysis that are encouraged by the P&G are found to be generally appropriate for planning and project evaluation under the prospect of climate change. However, some important planning and evaluation criteria require review and possible adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) impact assessment procedures are found to be particularly useful as a framework for climate change impact and sensitivity analyses, and would fulfill the requirements for future environmental impact statements. The ideas and principles are compatible with those found in the P&G. The water resources guidelines in the P&G deal explicitly with the specific comparison, appraisal, and selection of project alternatives based on normative decision rules associated with benefit cost analysis and maximizing national welfare. These basic rules and normative decision criteria for evaluating alternative adaptation measures were validated to a large degree by the IPCC Working Group III report (1996c) on economic and social dimensions of climate change. Neither IPCC guidelines nor general environmental impact procedures possess comparable prescriptive decision criteria. The paper concludes with guidance to planners as to: (1) climate-related factors that are of concern and should be monitored; (2) conditions under which climate change should receive particular attention; and (3) adaptation opportunities.

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Possible Responses in the MINK Region

The capacity to supply both instream and offstream water uses under alternative climate conditions and likely future changes in population, technology, and water-using practices are examined through an adaptation of the framework developed in the Second National Water Assessment. Two measures of the adequacy of water supplies - the availability of renewable supplies to provide for withdrawal and instream uses and the relation between desired instream flows and current streamflows - are used to examine the impact of the 1931–1940 analog climate (with and without CO2 enrichment) on Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas (MINK). The impacts of the analog climate on water supplies are estimated from actual streamflow data and estimates of the differences in reservoir evaporation under the 1931–1940 analog and the 1951–1980 control climates. A modification of the Erosion Productivity Inventory Calculator (EPIC) model is used to estimate the impacts of the analog climate (with and without CO2 enrichment) on irrigation water use.Water, which is already a scarce resource in the MINK region, would become much scarcer if the climate of the 1930s were to become the norm. Mean assessed total streamflow would drop to 69% of the control climate level for the Missouri River Basin, 71% for the Upper Mississippi, and 93% for the Arkansas. Even in the absence of climate change, MINK will have less water in the year 2030 than it does today because groundwater stocks are being depleted and increased upstream diversions would reduce surface flows into these states. Irrigation and instream uses such as navigation, hydroelectric power production, recreation, and fish and wildlife habitat would be most adversely, impacted by the climate-induced changes in water supplies.

Climate change and water resources planning criteria

Introduction K.D. Frederick, et al. Climate Change and Water Resources K.D. Frederick, D.C. Major. Water Resources Planning and Climate Chnge Assessment Methods D.C. Major, K.D. Frederick. Issue Assessments. Intertemporal Equity, Discounting, and Economic Efficiency in Water Policy Evaluation R.C. Lind. Scale and Modeling Issues in Water Resources Planning H.F. Lins, et al. Stochastic Hydrology in the Context of Climate Change N.C. Matalas. Ecosystem Evaluation, Climate Change and Water Resources Planning E.Z. Stakhiv, D.C. Major. Nonmarket Valuation and the Estimation of Damages from Global Warming K.E. McConnell. Adapting to Climate Impacts on the Supply and Demand for Water K.D. Frederick. Applications and Case Studies. Assessing Urban Water Use and the Role of Water Conservation Measures under Climate Uncertainty J.J. Boland. Using Decision Analysis to Include Climate Change in Water Resources Decision Making B.F. Hobbs, et al. Assessing Climate Change Implications for Water Resources Planning A.W. Wood, et al. Engineering Design and Uncertainties Related to Climate Change P. Rogers. Planning for Sea Level Rise and Shore Protection under Climate Uncertainty G. Yohe, J. Neumann. Global Warming and Water Management: Water Allocation and Project Evaluation R. Mendelsohn, L.L. Bennett. Summary, Conclusions, Recommendations. Water Resources Planning Principles and Evaluation Criteria for Climate Change: Summary and Conclusions K.D. Frederick, et al.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

An Introductory Essay K.D. Frederick. Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts R. Mendelsohn, N.J. Rosenberg. Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change W.E. Riebsame, W.B. Meyer, B.L. Turner, II. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: the State of Biological Modeling V.H. Dale, H.M. Rauscher. Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecologic Assessments C.S. Binkley, G.C. van Kooten. Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment Using Models W.J. Parton, D.S. Schimel, D.S. Ojima. Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change on Grazinglands J.R. Conner. Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources -- a Review G.H. Leavesley. Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources P. Rogers. Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps K.D. Frederick, I.M. Goklany, N.J. Rosenberg.

Paper 1. the mink methodology: background and baseline

A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the regions climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO2 concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations.The region chosen for the first test of the methodology is composed of the four U.S. states of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. The climate change scenario is the actual weather of the 1930s decade in the MINK region. ‘Current’ climate is the actual weather of the period 1951–1980.

Water Resources Planning and Climate Change Assessment Methods

This paper, which provides background for other papers in the volume, first reviews the nature and development of water resources planning and evaluation criteria at the Federal level in the United States. These criteria constitute a highly developed, complex set of guidelines for project planning and evaluation. The level of development of these criteria and their long historical development from theoretical foundations must be taken into account in relating global climate change to possible changes in planning criteria. Second, the essentials of water project planning and evaluation, including benefit-cost principles and more complex concepts of social decision-making, are outlined. Third, the paper provides an overview of global climate change assessment methods, including impact assessment and integrated assessment. Impact assessment uses a relatively straightforward comparison of with and without situations; integrated assessment attempts to improve on impact assessment by developing more complex models that incorporate a range of feedbacks and interrelationships.

Integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on natural resources: An Introductory Essay

Concerns about the possibility of an anthropogenically-induced greenhouse warming have prompted a growing body of research designed to understand the likely biological and physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the social and economic consequences of these impacts. Relatively few studies, however, have integrated both the biophysical and the socioeconomic aspects or considered the linkages between them. The publication of this volume culminates a project designed to encourage and, hopefully, facilitate future integrated assessments of the social, economic, and environmental impacts of climate change on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. Specific project objectives include: (1) characterizing the current state of natural science and socioeconomic modeling of the impacts of climate change and current climate variability on forests, grasslands, and water; (2) identifying what can be done currently with impact assessments and how to undertake such assessments; (3) identifying impediments to linking biophysical and socioeconomic models into integrated assessments for policy purposes; (4) recommending research activities that will improve the state of the art and remove impediments to model integration.