Joel Darmstadter

Greenhouse warming: Abatement and adaptation

This book focuses on two possible paths of living with a changing climate--abatement and adaptation. The adaptation path is well represented in the book, with chapters on responses to rise in sea level, future agricultural adaptations, Third World agriculture, possibilities presented by currently unmanaged forests, and water resource management. Although the adaptation discussions suggest that adaptive steps will be very difficult and very expensive unless the rate of climate change is slowed, abatement processes are much less well represented in the book. Climate scientists, here and elsewhere, do not report any estimates of how large a decrease in the emissions of infrared-trapping gases would be required in order to slow the climate heating rate by some amount. Only one chapter in the book discusses details of an abatement strategy, that of planting new forests to sequester carbon dioxide and so reduce the annual atmospheric increase. Beyond the discussion of forests, the only consideration of abatement is in a chapter on the use of an economic model to project future carbon dioxide emissions.

The MINK methodology: background and baseline

A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the region’s climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO2 concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations.

Climate Change Impacts on the Energy Sector and Possible Adjustments in the MINK Region

The discussion reviews the prevailing pattern of energy demand and supply in the MINK states, speculates on the regions long-term energy future in the absence and presence of greenhouse warming, and, in the latter case, considers energy sector adaptation to such a prospect. Climate-sensitive energydemand is dominated by heating and cooling in various sectors of the regional economy (around 20% of regional energy consumption) and by such agricultural applications as irrigation pumping and crop drying (around 5%). A climate-sensitive energysupply issue of some importance is the regions partial dependence on hydroelectric capacity in the upper Missouri river basin. The analysis finds that, unlike the rather significant impacts likely to be experienced by other sectors of the regional economy, the hypothesized warming trend will translate into only small net increases in energy demand; and that technological possibilities and policy measures are available to mute any serious climatic effects on the energy sector.

Paper 1. the mink methodology: background and baseline

A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the regions climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO2 concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations.The region chosen for the first test of the methodology is composed of the four U.S. states of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. The climate change scenario is the actual weather of the 1930s decade in the MINK region. ‘Current’ climate is the actual weather of the period 1951–1980.

Can power from space compete

Satellite solar power (SSP) has been suggested as an alternative to terrestrial energy resources for electricity generation. In this study, we consider the market for electricity from the present to 2020, roughly the year when many experts expect SSP to be technically achievable. We identify several key challenges for SSP in competing with conventional electricity generation in developed and developing countries, discuss the role of market and economic analysis as technical development of SSP continues during the coming years, and suggest future research directions to improve understanding of the potential economic viability of SSP.

Putting a Carbon Charge on Federal Coal: Legal and Economic Issues

US policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions is currently driven, in part, by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Clean Power Plan, which seeks a drop in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fueled power plants—a “downstream” approach to regulation. Here, we consider an alternative, or possibly complementary, regulatory perspective - What is the legal and economic feasibility of imposing an “upstream” CO2 charge on coal production at its extraction site? Specifically, our focus is on leased coal from federal lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). Such a carbon charge is designed, in principle, to embody the cumulative “lifecycle” externalities from coal mining to combustion (or other “downstream” utilization). Our legal analysis concludes that BLM has the statutory and regulatory authority to impose such a charge and that it would be best to add it to the royalty rate. But a large fee that would dramatically reduce revenues could invite judicial concern. The economic case is weaker than the legal case because production on state, private, and tribal lands (60 percent of total production) would not be subject to the charge and so could ramp up in response to the economic disadvantage the charge would cause for coal on federal lands, among other reasons. Best would be a comprehensive set of charges on royalties for all fossil fuels, irrespective of ownership.