Kenneth Drinkwater

Conspiracy theory and cognitive style: a worldview

This paper assessed whether belief in conspiracy theories was associated with a particularly cognitive style (worldview). The sample comprised 223 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling and included undergraduates, postgraduates, university employees, and alumni. Respondents completed measures assessing a range of cognitive-perceptual factors (schizotypy, delusional ideation, and hallucination proneness) and conspiratorial beliefs (general attitudes toward conspiracist thinking and endorsement of individual conspiracies). Positive symptoms of schizotypy, particularly the cognitive-perceptual factor, correlated positively with conspiracist beliefs. The best predictor of belief in conspiracies was delusional ideation. Consistent with the notion of a coherent conspiratorial mindset, scores across conspiracy measures correlated strongly. Whilst findings supported the view that belief in conspiracies, within the sub-clinical population, was associated with a delusional thinking style, cognitive-perceptual factors in combination accounted for only 32% of the variance.

Toward a Better Understanding of the Relationship between Belief in the Paranormal and Statistical Bias: The Potential Role of Schizotypy

The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief), belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy). Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience (UnExp) subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures [RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs (TPB) and new age philosophy]. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with UnExp and belief in the paranormal (particularly the TPB dimension of the RPBS). Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to UnExp. Structural equation modeling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between UnExp and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst UnExp correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness), there was no association between UnExp and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction).

Urban Legends and Paranormal Beliefs: The Role of Reality Testing and Schizotypy

Recent research suggests that unconventional beliefs are locatable within a generic anomalous belief category. This notion derives from the observation that apparently dissimilar beliefs share fundamental, core characteristics (i.e., contradiction of orthodox scientific understanding of the universe and defiance of conventional understanding of reality). The present paper assessed the supposition that anomalous beliefs were conceptually similar and explicable via common psychological processes by comparing relationships between discrete beliefs [endorsement of urban legends (ULs) and belief in the paranormal] and cognitive-perceptual personality measures [proneness to reality testing (RT) and schizotypy]. A sample of 222 volunteers, recruited via convenience sampling, took part in the study. Participants completed a series of self-report measures (Urban Legends Questionnaire, Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization, Revised Paranormal Belief Scale and the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire Brief). Preliminary analysis revealed positive correlations between measures. Within schizotypy, the cognitive-perceptual factor was most strongly associated with anomalistic beliefs; disorganized and interpersonal produced only weak and negligible correlations respectively. Further investigation indicated complex relationships between RT, the cognitive-perceptual factor of schizotypy and anomalistic beliefs. Specifically, proneness to RT deficits explained a greater amount of variance in ULs, whilst schizotypy accounted for more variance in belief in the paranormal. Consideration of partial correlations supported these conclusions. The relationship between RT and ULs remained significant after controlling for the cognitive-perceptual factor. Contrastingly, the association between the cognitive-perceptual factor and ULs controlling for RT was non-significant. In the case of belief in the paranormal, controlling for proneness to RT reduced correlation size, but relationships remained significant. This study demonstrated that anomalistic beliefs vary in nature and composition. Findings indicated that generalized views of anomalistic beliefs provide only limited insight into the complex nature of belief.

An Assessment of the Dimensionality and Factorial Structure of the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale

Since its introduction, the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS) has developed into a principal measure of belief in the paranormal. Accordingly, the RPBS regularly appears within parapsychological research. Despite common usage, academic debates continue to focus on the factorial structure of the RPBS and its psychometric integrity. Using an aggregated heterogeneous sample (N = 3,764), the present study tested the fit of 10 factorial models encompassing variants of the most commonly proposed solutions (seven, five, two, and one-factor) plus new bifactor alternatives. A comparison of competing models revealed a seven-factor bifactor solution possessed superior data-model fit (CFI = 0.945, TLI = 0.933, IFI = 0.945, SRMR = 0.046, RMSEA = 0.058), containing strong factor loadings for a general factor and weaker, albeit acceptable, factor loadings for seven subfactors. This indicated that belief in the paranormal, as measured by the RPBS, is best characterized as a single overarching construct, comprising several related, but conceptually independent subfactors. Furthermore, women reported significantly higher paranormal belief scores than men, and tests of invariance indicated that mean differences in gender are unlikely to reflect measurement bias. Results indicate that despite concerns about the content and psychometric integrity of the RPBS the measure functions well at both a global and seven-factor level. Indeed, the original seven-factors contaminate alternative solutions.

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models.

Latent Profile Analysis of Schizotypy and Paranormal Belief: Associations with Probabilistic Reasoning Performance

This study assessed the extent to which within-individual variation in schizotypy and paranormal belief influenced performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks. A convenience sample of 725 non-clinical adults completed measures assessing schizotypy (Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences; O-Life brief), belief in the paranormal (Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and probabilistic reasoning (perception of randomness, conjunction fallacy, paranormal perception of randomness, and paranormal conjunction fallacy). Latent profile analysis (LPA) identified four distinct groups: class 1, low schizotypy and low paranormal belief (43.9% of sample); class 2, moderate schizotypy and moderate paranormal belief (18.2%); class 3, moderate schizotypy (high cognitive disorganization) and low paranormal belief (29%); and class 4, moderate schizotypy and high paranormal belief (8.9%). Identification of homogeneous classes provided a nuanced understanding of the relative contribution of schizotypy and paranormal belief to differences in probabilistic reasoning performance. Multivariate analysis of covariance revealed that groups with lower levels of paranormal belief (classes 1 and 3) performed significantly better on perception of randomness, but not conjunction problems. Schizotypy had only a negligible effect on performance. Further analysis indicated that framing perception of randomness and conjunction problems in a paranormal context facilitated performance for all groups but class 4.

Predictors and Associates of Problem–Reaction–Solution: Statistical Bias, Emotion-Based Reasoning, and Belief in the Paranormal

Major conspiracy theorists propose that problem–reaction–solution (PRS) functions as a mechanism for constructing and exaggerating social problems to garner populist support for the implementation (imposition) of laws that society would normally deem unacceptable. To evaluate this supposition, 248 participants recruited through convenience sampling, completed measures assessing PRS, statistical bias, emotion-based reasoning (EBR), and belief in the paranormal. Structural equation modeling revealed differential relationships existed between components of statistical bias, EBR, and belief endorsement (PRS and paranormal). Specifically, proneness to conjunction error predicted PRS, whereas misperception of randomness and to an extent EBR best explained belief in the paranormal. These results indicated that respondents were willing to accept PRS scenarios as legitimate and validate PRS-proposed solutions based on rational rather than emotional appeal.

The Moderating Effect of Mental Toughness: Perception of Risk and Belief in the Paranormal

This research demonstrates that higher levels of mental toughness provide cognitive-perceptual processing advantages when evaluating risk. No previous research, however, has examined mental toughness in relation to perception of risk and paranormal belief (a variable associated with distorted perception of causality and elevated levels of perceived risk). Accordingly, the present paper investigated relationships between these factors. A sample of 174 participants completed self-report measures assessing mental toughness, general perception of risk, and paranormal belief. Responses were analyzed via correlations and moderation analyses. Results revealed that mental toughness correlated negatively with perception of risk and paranormal belief, whereas paranormal belief correlated positively with perception of risk. For the moderation effects, simple slopes analyses indicated that high levels of MT and subfactors of commitment and confidence reduced the strength of association between paranormal belief and perceived risk. Therefore, MT potentially acts as a protective factor among individuals who believe in the paranormal, reducing the tendency to perceive elevated levels of risk.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Inventory of Personality Organization-Reality Testing Subscale

The reality testing dimension of the Inventory of Personality Organization, the IPO-RT, has emerged as an important index of proneness to reality testing deficits. However, to date few studies have examined the factorial structure of the IPO-RT in isolation. This is an important and necessary development because studies use the IPO-RT as a discrete measure. Additionally, psychometric evaluation of the IPO suggests alternative factorial solutions. Specifically, recent work supports multidimensionality, whereas initial IPO assessment evinced a unidimensional structure. Accordingly, this study, using a heterogeneous sample (N = 652), tested the fit of several factorial models (one-factor, four-factor oblique, second-order, and bifactor) via maximum likelihood with bootstrapping due to multivariate non-normality. Analysis revealed superior fit for the bifactor solution (correlated errors) (CFI = 0.965, SRMR = 0.036, RMSEA = 0.042). This model comprised a general reality testing dimension alongside four subfactors (auditory and visual hallucinations, delusional thinking, social deficits, and confusion). Inter-factor correlations were in the moderate range. Item loadings and omega reliability supported the notion that the IPO-RT emphasizes a single latent construct. The model demonstrated invariance across gender and partial age invariance. Overall, from a psychometric perspective, the IPO-RT functioned effectively at both global and, to an extent, factorial levels. Findings recommend that the IPO-RT should be scored as a total scale, and rather than treat subscales independently, future studies should consider examining factor variance alongside overall scale scores.

The Australian Sheep-Goat Scale: An evaluation of factor structure and convergent validity

The Australian Sheep-Goat Scale (ASGS) is a commonly used measure of belief in the paranormal. The scale contains items that index extrasensory perception (ESP), psychokinesis (PK), and life after death (LAD). Although, research employs the ASGS as both a general (unidimensional) and factorial (multidimensional) measure, few studies have examined the appropriateness of these solutions. Accordingly, the present paper tested the psychometric integrity of the ASGS via two studies. Study 1 assessed ASGS factorial structure using confirmatory factor analysis. To achieve this, merging of ASGS data from previously published studies and ongoing work created a heterogeneous sample of 1,601 responses. Analysis revealed that a two-factor bifactor model best explained ASGS organization. This comprised a general overarching factor incorporating two subfactors (ESP and PK). Factor loadings and omega reliability supported a unidimensional structure for the most part. Removal of LAD items improved model fit because the factor added unnecessary complexity and undermined scale psychometric integrity. Study 2, using a supplementary composite sample of 320 respondents, assessed the convergent validity of the emergent ASGS model against a recently published Revised Paranormal Belief Scale (RPBS) bifactor solution. Comparison revealed high convergent validity. The general ASGS factor, despite deriving from only psi-related dimensions (ESP and PK) predicted RPBS scores. This finding indicated that ASGS brevity relative to the RPBS is advantageous when assessing general belief in the paranormal. The ASGS, notwithstanding limited construct content, functions as an effective measure of paranormal belief. Additionally, Study 2 replicated the bifactor structure identified in Study 1 and invariance testing supported invariance of form, factor loadings and item intercepts for this solution across Studies 1 and 2.