Kenneth M. Winneg

Did Fact Checking Matter in the 2012 Presidential Campaign

The new media environment raises two questions: Will campaign deceptions have traveled around the web before journalism has the fact-checking in place to ensnare them? And if diligent checking of claims does exist, will it fall on an audience too enmeshed in its own biases to see past them? This essay draws on evidence from the Annenberg Public Policy Center’s 2012 Institutions of Democracy Political Knowledge Survey to argue that long-form political fact-checking can increase the accuracy of voters’ perceptions of both candidate stands on issues and the background facts of the presidential race.

Culturally antagonistic memes and the Zika virus: an experimental test

This paper examines a remedy for a defect in existing accounts of public risk perceptions. The accounts in question feature two dynamics: the affect heuristic, which emphasizes the impact of visceral feelings on information processing; and the cultural cognition thesis, which describes the tendency of individuals to form beliefs that reflect and reinforce their group commitments. The defect is the failure of these two dynamics, when combined, to explain the peculiar selectivity of public risk controversies: despite their intensity and disruptiveness, such controversies occur less frequently than the affect heuristic and the cultural cognition thesis seem to predict. To account for this aspect of public risk perceptions, the paper describes a model that adds the phenomenon of culturally antagonistic memes – argumentative tropes that fuse positions on risk with contested visions of the best life. Arising adventitiously, antagonistic memes transform affect and cultural cognition from consensus-generating, truth-convergent influences on information processing into conflictual, identity-protective ones. The paper supports this model with experimental results involving perceptions of the risk of the Zika virus: a general sample of US subjects, whose cultural orientations were measured with the Cultural Cognition Worldview Scales, formed polarized affective reactions when exposed to information that was pervaded with antagonistic memes linking Zika to global warming; when exposed to comparable information linking Zika to unlawful immigration, the opposing affective stances of the subjects flipped in direction. Normative and prescriptive implications of these results are discussed.

Cross-pressuring conservative Catholics? Effects of Pope Francis’ encyclical on the U.S. public opinion on climate change

In an encyclical released in June of 2015, Pope Francis cast the need to address climate change as a moral imperative. Using nationally-representative surveys with supplemental samples of Catholics, we investigate changes in the U.S. public’s post-encyclical attitudes about climate change and the Catholic pontiff. People who were aware of the encyclical held more polarized attitudes toward climate change than those who were unaware of it. Whereas encyclical-aware liberals expressed heightened concerns about climate change, encyclical-aware conservatives expressed lower levels. Cross-pressured by the inconsistency between the pontiff’s views and those of their political allies, conservative Catholics devalued the Pope’s credibility on climate change. These findings have important implications for communication about climate change in polarized opinion environments.

The Changing Nature of Political Debate Consumption: Social Media, Multitasking, and Knowledge Acquisition

This study examines the influence of debate viewing-social media multitasking on campaign knowledge during the 2012 presidential election. Results from three waves of a national cross-sectional survey of U.S. adults conducted during and after the 2012 presidential election suggest that social networking site (SNS) use overall correlates with increased knowledge of campaign issues and facts above and beyond the use of other sources of news media. In addition, watching a debate with or without simultaneous social media engagement is better for knowledge generation than not viewing a debate at all, but the effect of debate viewing is dulled when simultaneously engaging in social media multitasking. The debate viewing-social media multitasking effect is moderated by candidate preference, with differential learning occurring largely for knowledge that is favorable to one’s preferred candidate.

Detecting the effects of deceptive presidential advertisements in the spring of 2004

Long before the political conventions of 2004, the Kerry and Bush campaigns and their surrogates were laying the groundwork for the fall campaign with heavy ad buys. Some of the assertions made on each side were misleading. Here we explore three misleading claims made on each side in the weeks following the effective end of the 2004 primary season and ask, Did they work? If so, with whom? Results from the National Annenberg Election Survey show that some of these misleading claims about George W. Bush and John Kerry were believed by a majority of citizens. Democrats were more likely to believe deceptive claims about Bush, whereas Republicans were more likely to embrace deceptive claims about Kerry. The claim that “George W. Bush favors sending American jobs overseas” gained traction in battleground states, even when demographic variables and party identification were taken into consideration.

Deception in Third Party Advertising in the 2012 Presidential Campaign

In this article, we profile the advertising activities and deception levels of the top 2012 spending independent expenditure groups that focused on the presidential contest. From December 1, 2011, through Election Day, November 6, 2012, independent expenditure groups spent more than

The Impact of 2008 Presidential Campaign Media on Latinos A Study of Nevada and Arizona Latino Voters

360 million on presidential television advertising, according to Kantar Media CMAG. More than a fifth of the dollars spent by the top groups purchased ads containing at least one claim judged as misleading by independent fact checkers. The proportion of dollars that these groups spent on ads containing at least one deception was much greater during the primaries than afterward. During the primaries, the pro-Romney super PAC “Restore Our Future” led the pack both in dollars spent on ads containing at least one deception and in the proportion of its ads found deceptive by the fact checkers. During the general election, in the post-primary period, the pro-Obama super PAC “Priorities USA Action” devoted the most dollars and greatest proportion of its total dollars to ads in which fact checkers found at least one deceptive claim. During some but not all of the 2012 election year, the percentage of third party ads containing at least one deceptive claim was higher among those groups not required to disclose their donors than it was among those required to do so.

Legacy and social media respectively influence risk perceptions and protective behaviors during emerging health threats: A multi-wave analysis of communications on Zika virus cases

To examine the effects of the 2008 Obama campaign’s targeted media effort aimed at Latino voters, we married 2008 campaign media data from multiple sources to survey data on registered Latino voters in Nevada and Arizona to examine the specific impact of advertisement buys on that population. In the presence of controls, Obama’s media spending advantage over McCain had a significant and positive relationship with an Obama vote. When looking at local broadcast, cable and radio specifically, we find a significant relationship between spending differentials on local broadcast advertising and vote intention but not between spending differentials on radio and cable buys.

Differences Between Florida and the Rest of the United States in Response to Local Transmission of the Zika Virus: Implications for Future Communication Campaigns: Implications for Future Zika Communication Campaigns

Abstract Objective Both legacy media, such as television and newspapers, and online social media are potentially important but incompletely understood sources of information in the face of emerging public health risks. This research aimed to understand media effects on risk perceptions and behaviors concerning the Zika virus in the United States. Methods We analyzed a multi-wave nationally representative survey (N = 29,062) and the volume of communications in social and legacy media (i.e., legacy media data from news sources and databases, N = 2,660 and social media data from Twitter, N = 1,605,752) in the United States between April and October 2016, dates coinciding with the early cases of local transmission of Zika in the United States (i.e., 25 weeks). The present study conducted econometric analyses (i.e., Granger causality tests) to assess the associations of legacy and social media coverage with risk perceptions and protective behaviors in the total sample and specific groups separated by pregnancy status/intent, geographic region, income, education level, age, and ethnicity. Results The results from the overall sample suggested that changes in the volume of information in legacy and social media (i.e., Twitter) were followed by different changes in community risk perceptions and protective behaviors. Specifically, social media coverage correlated with the level of risk perceptions, whereas the legacy media coverage correlated with the level of protective behaviors. Analyses across different subpopulations, including those of different pregnancy status/intent, geographic Zika risk, income, education level, age, and ethnicity, replicated the social media associations with risk perceptions in most cases. However, legacy media and protective behaviors were linked only in some vulnerable subpopulations (e.g., the less-educated populations). Conclusion Understanding how media coverage relates to Zika risk perceptions and protective behaviors will help to facilitate effective risk communications by healthcare professionals and providers, particularly when a health risk emerges.

Associations of topics of discussion on twitter with survey measures of attitudes, knowledge, and behaviors related to zika: Probabilistic study in the United States

For those at risk for Zika virus infection, prevention requires an approach that includes individual, interpersonal, and community-level support for behavior change. In August 2016, the announcement of local Zika transmission in Florida provided an opportunity to determine whether Zika-related knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors might be affected differentially in Florida compared to the rest of the nation. From August 8-October 3, 2016, we conducted nationally representative weekly surveys (N = 12,236), oversampling Florida residents, measuring Zika virus news exposure, knowledge about transmission and prevention of the infection, and attitudes and behaviors toward prevention. We tested two classes of models: those focused on individual Zika risk perceptions (e.g., protection motivation theory) and one focused on community action beyond those directly at risk (social consensus model). Analyses assessed differences between Florida and the rest of the nation by survey week. Consistent with both models, Floridians demonstrated significantly higher levels of perceived susceptibility and knowledge, more positive attitudes toward Zika virus prevention, and higher likelihood of engaging in protective behavior than non-Floridians. Consistent with theories of individual risk perception, response was greater among respondents who saw themselves at risk of infection. However, consistent with the SCM, irrespective of personal risk, response was greater among Floridians. Nevertheless, more than half of the public took no direct action to prevent the spread of Zika. Communities at increased risk for a novel infection such as Zika may quickly acquire Zika-related knowledge, attitudes, and behavior, but large-scale community-wide response might be difficult without further community-level public education.