Kenneth T. Rosen

The size distribution of cities: An examination of the Pareto law and primacy

Abstract This paper examines the Pareto and primacy measures of the size distribution of cities. The mean Pareto exponent for a sample of 44 countries is 1.136, somewhat greater than the exponent of one implied by the rank-size rule. We find that value of the Pareto exponent is quite sensitive to the definition of the city and the choice of city sample size. The significance of non-linear terms in variants of the Pareto distribution also indicate that the rank-size rule is only a first approximation to a complete characterization of the size distribution of cities within a country. The relatively low correlation between primacy and Pareto measures confirms the need for a variety of measures of city size distributions. This paper also suggests that large cities are growing faster than small cities in most of the countries in our sample. This is indicated by the positive coefficient on the first non-linear term introduced into the Pareto equation. Finally, variations in the Pareto exponent and measures of primacy are partly explained by economic, demographic, and geographic factors.

Federal Taxes and Homeownership: Evidence from Time Series

This paper analyzes U.S. time-series data in order to study the determinants of the choice between renting and homeownership. Special attention is focused upon changes in the relative prices of owning and renting induced by provisions of the federal personal income tax. The results suggest that about one-quarter of the growth in the proportion of homeowners in the post-World War II period is a consequence of the tax systems favorable treatment of owner-occupied housing.

Growth Management and Land use Controls: The San Francisco Bay Area Experience

Local land use and growth controls have had a substantial negative impact on the San Francisco Bay Area housing market. These regulations have significantly diminished the availability of development opportunities in the region and forced builders to make major changes in the way they do business and costly alterations in their development projects. Both the empirical evidence reviewed and the case studies documented in this paper indicate that building moratoria, growth management systems, and restrictive zoning practices have helped lead to significantly increased house prices in those Bay Area communities in which they are present. The evidence strongly suggests that land use controls as they are currently utilized in the Bay Area provide a poor policy alternative for reconciling important environmental and fiscal considerations with equally important regional and national housing needs. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

The Demand for Housing, Household Headship Rates, and Household Formation: An International Analysis

This study investigates the influence of availability and affordability of housing on demographic changes through an international analysis of the relationship between age specific headship rates and housing availability and affordability. The researchers describe the basic trends in household formation and headship rates in Canada, France, Great Britain and the United States, investigate the economic determinants of age specific household headship rates in the four countries, and discuss the implications for future housing analysis. It was found that the considerable increase in household headship rate during the recent postwar period has been facilitated in these four countries by the increasing real affordability of housing. In addition, there was a clear relationship between the household age category and the responsiveness to economic variables.

The Resale Housing Market

This paper describes and analyzes the structure and operation of the market for existing single-family homes. The paper develops aggregative models of sales and renovation activity based on the adjustment choice decisions of households to alter their housing consumption by moving or by undertaking renovations. The models demonstrate that housing resales and renovation expenditures occur when the present value of the gains associated with a housing adjustment exceeds the costs of the transaction. The choice of the adjustment mode is shown to be significantly influenced by the relative transactions costs of moving versus renovating. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

The Implications of Demand Instability for the Behavior of Firms: The Case of Residential Construction

The position of the new residential construction sector as a large but very volatile component of total investment has provoked much study of the causes of that volatility and of its relation to the stability of the economy as a whole. There has never been, however, serious analysis of the assertion that this same volatility of housing starts, by creating an unstable environment for firms operating in the industry, serves to increase the cost of producing and marketing housing.This paper will focus on the phenomenon of demand instability as it affects firm behavior. It approaches the demand instability problem from two distinct but complementary perspectives. The first part sets forth a theoretical conception of the manner in which demand instability should influence any firms organization and operations. The second part presents an analysis of interviews conducted with representatives of a number of firms which supply materials for residential construction. This analysis provides a partial test of the theory and offers insights into areas on which theory alone sheds little light. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

The Changing Liability Structure of Savings and Loan Associations

The paper surveys the key factors, past and future, affecting Savings and Loan Association liability structure. The economic principles underlying Savings and Loan liability management are illustrated with emphasis on the dynamic aspects of decision-making and on the lack of perfect competition within the industry. Specific topics include the matching of asset and liability maturities, liquidity management, discrimination among classes of liabilities, and Regulation Q ceilings. The major shifts in the liability structure of Savings and Loan Associations during the 1970s is then reviewed. Key points include the steadily declining share of passbook accounts, the increasing average maturity of liabilities until 1978, and the ramifications of newly introduced deposit categories such as Money Market Certificates. Finally, the likely liability structure of Savings and Loans during the 1980s is discussed in the context of the removal of Regulation Q ceilings. The necessity for Savings and Loans to offer competitive interest rates on all maturity categories, and to offer deposit liabilities with liquidity features comparable to those available from other sources is emphasized. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

A Regional Model of Multifamily Housing Starts

This paper presents a regional time series model of multifamily housing activity. The theoretical model, based on a profit-maximizing builder or investor is used as a basis for estimating housing start and completion equations for each of the four Census regions and the U.S. as a whole. The empirical estimates show that new housing construction is highly responsive to profitability consideration, with the elasticity being between 5 and 14. The empirical estimates also demonstrate that there is substantial variance between regions in terms of parameter estimates. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.