Kerrylee Rogers

Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province, China. In south-eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the poleward extension of temperature thresholds coincident with sea-level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Mangrove Encroachment of Salt Marsh in Western Port Bay, Victoria: The Role of Sedimentation, Subsidence, and Sea Level Rise

Surface elevation tables, feldspar marker horizons, and210Pb analysis of core profiles were implemented at four sites in Western Port Bay, Victoria, Australia, to provide information on the role of sedimentation, subsidence or compaction, and enhanced sea-level rise in contributing to salt marsh decline. Photogrammetric surveys indicate that the rate of salt marsh decline that is attributable to mangrove encroachment is lower in Western Port Bay than in comparable sites in New South Wales. Differences in the rate of mangrove encroachment at Western Port Bay may be attributed to the inverse relationship found between the degree of mangrove encroachment and surface elevation increase. While sedimentation contributes to surface elevation changes, surface elevation is not solely explained by sedimentation; factors including autocompaction and changes in the water table also play a significant role in Western Port Bay. Historic sedimentation rates measured using210Pb dating techniques corresponded to contemporary sedimentation rates determined from feldspar marker horizons. Core sediment profiles show no change in sedimentation rates at three sites. A fourth site (French Island) was the only site that exhibited high rates of sedimentation, which appears to be related to local land-use changes in the area. All sites maintained their elevation with respect to sea level over the study period. Historic sedimentation exceeded sea-level rise for the past 32 yr, but it is difficult to determine the extent to which belowground processes affect surface elevation, causing deviations between surface elevation and sedimentation over longer periods.

Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise

Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

Response of salt marsh and mangrove wetlands to changes in atmospheric CO2, climate, and sea level

Coastal salt marsh and mangrove ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate and climate-induced changes. We provide a review of the literature detailing theoretical predictions and observed responses of coastal wetlands to a range of climate change stressors, including CO2, temperature, rainfall, and sea-level rise. This review incorporates a discussion of key processes controlling responses in different settings and thresholds of resilience derived from experimental and observational studies. We specifically consider the potential and observed effects on salt marsh and mangrove vegetation of changes in (1) elevated [CO2] on physiology, growth, and distribution; (2) temperature on distribution and diversity; (3) rainfall and salinity regimes on growth and competitive interactions; and (4) sea level on geomorphological, hydrological, and biological processes.

Relationships between Surface Elevation and Groundwater in Mangrove Forests of Southeast Australia

Abstract Mangrove surface elevation was measured by means of the Surface Elevation Table and Marker Horizon technique (SET-MH) in a range of settings in southeastern Australia. Despite sustained vertical accretion, surface elevation declined at most sites with the onset of an El Niño drought in 2001–2002. At these sites, the Southern Oscillation Index accounted for 70–85% of variability in surface elevation over a 3-year period. At deltaic island sites, this trend was not evident, an observation we attribute to lower terrestrial groundwater inputs. At one site (Homebush Bay), a high correlation was found between surface elevation and groundwater depth, monitored approximately every 2 weeks for 4 months. At the same site, the diurnal astronomical tide was also found to significantly affect mangrove surface elevation, although not to the extent of the El Niño drought. Models of the response of mangroves to sea-level rise on the basis of contemporary processes should account for short-term perturbations, such as climate variability at regional and local scales.

The significance and vulnerability of Australian saltmarshes: implications for management in a changing climate

We review the distribution, status and ecology of Australian saltmarshes and the mechanisms whereby enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide and associated climate change have influenced and will influence the provision of ecosystem goods and services. Research in temperate and subtropical saltmarsh has demonstrated important trophic contributions to estuarine fisheries, mediated by the synchronised mass-spawning of crabs, which feed predominantly on theC4saltmarshgrassSporobolusvirginicusandmicrophytobenthos.Saltmarshesalsoprovideuniquefeedingandhabitat opportunitiesforseveralspeciesofthreatenedmicrobatsandbirds,includingmigratoryshorebirds.Saltmarshesincreased in extent relative to mangrove in Australia in both tide- and wave-dominated geomorphic settings through the latter Holocene, although historic trends have seen a reversal of this trend. Australian saltmarshes have some capacity to maintainelevationwithrespecttorisingsealevel,althoughinsouth-easternAustralia,theencroachmentofmangroveand, inTasmania, conversionof shrubland toherbfield inthe pasthalf-centuryare consistent with changes inrelative sealevel. Modelling of the impacts of projected sea-level rise, incorporating sedimentation and other surface-elevation drivers, suggests that the survival of saltmarsh in developed estuaries will depend on the flexible management of hard structures and other impediments to wetland retreat.

Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes

Salt marsh and mangrove have been recognized as being among the most valuable ecosystem types globally in terms of their supply of ecosystem services and support for human livelihoods. These coastal ecosystems are also susceptible to the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels, with evidence of global shifts in the distribution of mangroves, including encroachment into salt marshes. The encroachment of woody mangrove shrubs and trees into herbaceous salt marshes may represent a substantial change in ecosystem structure, although resulting impacts on ecosystem functions and service provisions are largely unknown. In this review, we assess changes in ecosystem services associated with mangrove encroachment. While there is quantitative evidence to suggest that mangrove encroachment may enhance carbon storage and the capacity of a wetland to increase surface elevation in response to sea-level rise, for most services there has been no direct assessment of encroachment impact. On the basis of current understanding of ecosystem structure and function, we theorize that mangrove encroachment may increase nutrient storage and improve storm protection, but cause declines in habitat availability for fauna requiring open vegetation structure (such as migratory birds and foraging bats) as well as the recreational and cultural activities associated with this fauna (e.g., birdwatching and/or hunting). Changes to provisional services such as fisheries productivity and cultural services are likely to be site specific and dependent on the species involved. We discuss the need for explicit experimental testing of the effects of encroachment on ecosystem services in order to address key knowledge gaps, and present an overview of the options available to coastal resource managers during a time of environmental change.

Measuring, mapping and modelling: an integrated approach to the management of mangrove and saltmarsh in the Minnamurra River estuary, southeast Australia

Mangrove and saltmarsh ecosystems appear particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and their effective management will require forecasts of how these wetland habitats are likely to respond to sea-level rise through the twenty-first century. We describe a preliminary study of a small stand of mangrove and saltmarsh that involves measuring of elevation change and accretion, mapping of wetland communities, and modelling of their potential response to sea-level rise. The wetland occurs on the banks of the Minnamurra River estuary in southern New South Wales and has been the focus of several studies over recent decades. The research includes empirical measurements of sedimentation at sites in both mangrove and saltmarsh vegetation using the surface elevation table-marker horizon technique. This is a site at which mapping has been undertaken to delineate the extent of each vegetation community from a time-series of aerial photographs using geographical information systems; the gradual incursion of the mangrove, Avicennia marina, into more landward saltmarsh communities, observed over past decades for many systems in southeastern Australia, has continued into the twenty-first century. The observed patterns of change are compared with simulations of how this wetland system might respond to future sea-level rise, adopting several different approaches and the upper and lower bounds of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea-level rise projections. The model results show considerable variability in response depending on the parameters adopted. We advocate the need for the integration of these three approaches, measuring, mapping and modelling, as a basis for future management and adaptation. Our study demonstrates the considerable opportunities to refine the data input and model outputs as part of adaptive management, as more sophisticated technologies and data become available.

Application of thresholds of potential concern and limits of acceptable change in the condition assessment of a significant wetland

We propose a framework in which thresholds of potential concern (TPCs) and limits of acceptable change (LACs) are used in concert in the assessment of wetland condition and vulnerability and apply the framework in a case study. The lower Murrumbidgee River floodplain (the ‘Lowbidgee’) is one of the most ecologically important wetlands in Australia and the focus of intense management intervention by State and Federal government agencies. We used a targeted management stakeholder workshop to identify key values that contribute to the ecological significance of the Lowbidgee floodplain, and identified LACs that, if crossed, would signify the loss of significance. We then used conceptual models linking the condition of these values (wetland vegetation communities, waterbirds, fish species and the endangered southern bell frog) to measurable threat indicators, for which we defined a management goal and a TPC. We applied this framework to data collected across 70 wetland storages’, or eco-hydrological units, at the peak of a prolonged drought (2008) and following extensive re-flooding (2010). At the suggestion of water and wetland mangers, we neither aggregated nor integrated indices but reported separately in a series of chloropleth maps. The resulting assessment clearly identified the effect of rewetting in restoring indicators within TPC in most cases, for most storages. The scale of assessment was useful in informing the targeted and timely management intervention and provided a context for retaining and utilising monitoring information in an adaptive management context.