Kevin Hennessy

Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change

A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fifty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.

Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events and number of dry days in Australia, 1910–1990

Trends in heavy rainfall, total rainfall and number of dry days in Australia have been analysed using daily rainfall records at 125 stations. Summer and winter halves of the year were considered separately for the period 1910–1990. The summer half-year is defined as November–April, while the winter-half is May–October. Heavy rainfall is defined as the 90th and 95th percentiles of daily rainfall in each half-year. The magnitude of trends was derived from linear regression while statistical significance was determined by Kendall-Tau and field significance tests. Increasing trends in heavy rainfall and total rainfall have occurred during the summer half-year, but only 10–20% of stations have statistically significant trends. During the winter half-year, heavy rainfall and total rainfall have also increased, except in far southwest Western Australia and inland Queensland. There has been a reduction in the number of dry days in both halves of the year, except in far southwest Western Australia and at a few stations in eastern Australia where there has been an increase in the number of dry days in the winter half-year. Changes in the number of dry days were statistically significant at over 50% of stations. Hence there are regions showing coherent increases and decreases in rainfall which may be due to systematic changes in climate during the last century. Trends were averaged over three broad regions with adequate station coverage. There has been a general decrease in dry days with an increase in total and heavy rainfall intensity in the northeast and southeast, and a decrease in total and heavy rainfall in the southwest. These rainfall changes are related to changes in other climate variables such as temperature and cloud cover in Australia.

Changes in Climate Extremes Over the Australian Region and New Zealand During the Twentieth Century

Analyses of high quality data show that there have been some interesting recent changes in the incidence of some climate extremes in the Australian region and New Zealand.

Greenhouse warming and vernalisation of high-chill fruit in Southern Australia

Most deciduous fruit trees need sufficient accumulated chilling, or vernalisation, to break winter dormancy. Inadequate chilling due to enhanced greenhouse warming may result in prolonged dormancy, leading to reduced fruit quality and yield. The potential impact of warming on chill accumulation has been analysed using the Utah vernalisation model and temperature data from over 400 climate stations in southern Australia. Two experiments were performed: (i) a sensitivity study where temperatures were increased at all sites by either 1, 2 or 3 °C; (ii) a scenario study for the year 2030 where temperatures were increased according to spatially- and seasonally-varying warming scenarios derived from five global climate models under enhanced greenhouse conditions.The sensitivity study shows that warming causes greater reduction in chilling at sites with a higher present mean temperature and/or a wider diurnal temperature range. In the scenario study, two warming scenarios for the year 2030 were considered: a low (high) warming scenario which assumes a low (high) rate of increase of greenhouse gas emission, a low (high) global climate sensitivity to increased emissions, and a low (high) regional temperature response. The low warming scenario is less than 1 °C in southern Australia and is unlikely to affect the vernalisation of high-chill fruit, except for pome-fruit grown in south-west Western Australia. The high warming scenario exceeds 1.5 °C and would significantly increase the risk of prolonged dormancy for both stone-fruit and pome-fruit at many sites.