Dewi Kirono

Estimation of Climate Change Impact on Mean Annual Runoff across Continental Australia Using Budyko and Fu Equations and Hydrological Models

AbstractThis paper presents the climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia estimated using the Budyko and Fu equations informed by projections from 15 global climate models and compares the estimates with those from extensive hydrological modeling. The results show runoff decline in southeast and far southwest Australia, but elsewhere across the continent there is no clear agreement between the global climate models in the direction of future precipitation and runoff change. Averaged across large regions, the estimates from the Budyko and Fu equations are reasonably similar to those from the hydrological models. The simplicity of the Budyko equation, the similarity in the results, and the large uncertainty in global climate model projections of future precipitation suggest that the Budyko equation is suitable for estimating climate change impact on mean annual runoff across large regions. The Budyko equation is particularly useful for data-limited regions, for studies where o...

Adapting to climate change through urban water management: a participatory case study in Indonesia

The benefits of integrated approaches to climate risk and adaptation studies are increasingly recognised. Thus, there is an increasing need for practical examples of such work in the literature. This paper describes a practical application of an integrated framework for climate change impacts on regional surface water resources and the urban water system in the Mamminasata metropolitan region, Indonesia. Two main features of the framework are: the integration of both climate and other physical and social considerations in the assessment; and the high stakeholder involvement before, during and after project implementation. Although the study is concerned with the Mamminasata region, the overall methodology is transferable to any region in Indonesia or internationally. Key outcomes from this study are: (1) creation of information for Mamminasata planners and water resources managers for when, and under what conditions, the water supply may or may not meet the demand; (2) a clear consensus and shared learning of the problems facing the region among cross-institutional stakeholders; and (3) identification of adaptation options for the urban water system and knowledge gaps and strategies for their implementation. Results of stakeholders’ surveys conducted at the mid-point and at the end of the study indicate that these outputs will provide valuable guidance for future planning and management of Mamminasata regional water resources.

The Added Value of Understanding Informal Social Networks in an Adaptive Capacity Assessment: Explorations of an Urban Water Management System in Indonesia

Social networks play an important role in environmental governance regimes, and they are a key to the adaptive capacity of systems that deal with complex, contextual and multi-faceted issues. Urban water systems are typical examples of complex systems facing many pressures, such as increased population, water quality deterioration, and climate change. This paper explores social networks of the key stakeholders engaged in urban water management, in Makassar City, Indonesia, in the context of exploring ways to improve management of an increasingly complex urban water system. Three social networks were explored; those constituted by formal and informal interactions and networks perceived by stakeholders to be “ideal”. Formal networks were identified through an examination of the legislative instruments and government agencies’ documents relating to water provision in Makassar, while the informal and “ideal” networks were investigated in collaboration with the stakeholders. The research found that the informal social network was more extensive than were the formally required networks, and the investigation of informal networks created a potentially more robust and adaptive water management system than would have occurred through inclusion of formal institutional arrangements. We suggest that in examination of the adaptive capacity of an urban water system, one also considers the informal arrangements and linkages, as this additional information about the system is necessary to enhance our understanding of potential adaptation of water management and improved urban water systems.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Risks on Three Salt Lakes in Western Victoria, Australia

ABSTRACT Salt lakes are significant landscape features in Australia. The three studied lakes, in particular, are recognized as being of national (Gnotuk) and international significance (Keilambete, Bullenmerri) for their ecological, social, and scientific values. The lake levels have been declining since the mid-1800s, the likely cause being a natural climate-driven decrease in precipitation and increase in evaporation. With the prospect of human-induced climate change further altering regional climate, this article presents a framework and results for assessing the impacts and risks of climate change on lake levels and salinity. A lake water balance model was applied with the inputs of climate observations and modeled future climate variables. The latter are generated from 14 general circulation model simulations used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The resulting scenarios represent the range of likely outcomes of regional climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions to year 2100. Models project that all lake levels are likely to continue to decline, with the declines for Bullenmerri expected to exceed those of the other two lakes. The salinity in the lakes is likely to increase, with the rate of increase likely to become more rapid over time. Some implications of these findings are discussed.