Kevin Keay

Mean Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Behavior in the 40-Year NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis

Abstract This paper presents a new climatology of Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical cyclones. This has been compiled by applying a state-of-the-art cyclone tracking scheme to the 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) global reanalyses spanning the period 1958–97. The results show there to be, on average, between 35 and 38 cyclonic systems per analysis (depending on season), with the greatest density [exceeding 6 × 10−3 cyclones (deg lat)−2] found south of 60°S in all seasons and in the Indian and west Pacific Oceans in autumn and winter. For the most part, there is a net creation of cyclones (i.e., cyclogenesis exceeds cyclolysis) north of about 50°S, and a net destruction to the south of this latitude. Having said this, the most active cyclogenesis takes place south of 45°S. The NCEP–NCAR reanalyses indicate that most SH cyclogenesis occurs at very high latitudes, and the axis of the maximum lies on, or to the south of, 60°S. This...

IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties.

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

Synoptic Activity in the Seas around Antarctica

Abstract The recent NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis-2 update of the original NCEP–NCAR dataset provides what is arguably the highest quality analyses spanning two decades available for the high southern latitudes. It therefore offers an excellent starting point from which to assemble a modern, comprehensive, and reliable picture of synoptic activity in the subantarctic region. This set, covering the “modern satellite” era from January 1979 to February 2000, is used herein. In addition, the exploration in this study has been conducted with sophisticated feature-tracking and trajectory analysis software. It is shown that the high southern latitude cyclone system density is greatest in the Indian Ocean and to the south of Australia near, or to the south of, 60°S. The numbers in winter exceed those in summer, except over a few, but important, regions such as the Bellingshausen Sea. The Antarctic coastal region is confirmed as one of high cyclonicity, as is that in the northern part of the Antarctic...

Variability of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Behavior, 1958–97

Abstract An analysis of the variability and trends exhibited by many aspects of Southern Hemisphere (SH) mean sea level extratropical cyclones during the period 1958–97 is presented. The investigation is undertaken by applying a state-of-the-art cyclone finding and tracking scheme to the 6-hourly reanalyses produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The outcome of this is arguably the most reliable analysis of SH cyclone variability undertaken to date. Across the 40-yr period the annual and seasonal mean cyclone densities have undergone reductions at most locations south of about 40°S (with the greatest reductions near 60°S), and increases to the north. This pattern of change resembles the “high-latitude mode” identified in many studies of SH circulation features. It is shown that the mean radius of SH extratropical cyclones displays almost everywhere a significant positive trend, and there are also increases in annual mean cyclone “depth” (i.e., the pressure difference between the cen...

Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979–2008

[1] Dramatic changes have been observed in Arctic sea ice, cyclone behavior and atmospheric circulation in recent decades. Decreases in September ice extent have been remarkable over the last 30 years, and particularly so in very recent times. The analysis reveals that the trends and variability in September ice coverage and mean cyclone characteristics are related, and that the strength (rather than the number) of cyclones in the Arctic basin is playing a central role in the changes observed in that region, especially in the last few years. The findings reinforce suggestions that the decline in the extent and thickness of Arctic ice has started to render it particularly vulnerable to future anomalous cyclonic activity and atmospheric forcing.

Arctic Climate Change as Manifest in Cyclone Behavior

Abstract The Arctic region has exhibited dramatic changes in recent times. Many of these are intimately tied up with synoptic activity, but little research has been undertaken on how the characteristics of Arctic cyclones have changed. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of Arctic (here defined as the domain north of 70°N) cyclones diagnosed with the Melbourne University cyclone tracking scheme applied to the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the NCEP–NCAR (NCEP1) and NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II (NCEP2) reanalysis sets (the last two extending to the end of 2006). A wide variety of cyclone characteristics is presented as befits these complex features. In winter the highest density of cyclones is found between Norway and Svalbard and to the east to the Barents and Kara Seas, and significant numbers are found in the central Arctic. In summer the greatest frequencies are found in the central Arctic. The total number of cyclones identified in ...

On Cyclonic Tracks over the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract In this study, an updated and extended climatology of cyclonic tracks affecting the eastern Mediterranean region is presented, in order to better understand the Mediterranean climate and its changes. This climatology includes intermonthly variations, classification of tracks according to their origin domain, dynamic and kinematic characteristics, and trend analysis. The dataset used is the 1962–2001, 2.5° × 2.5°, 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). The identification and tracking of the cyclones was performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm. It was verified that considerable intermonthly variations of track density occur in the eastern Mediterranean, consistent with previous studies for the entire Mediterranean, while further interesting new features have been revealed. The classification of the tracks according to their origin domain reveals that the vast majority originate within the examined area itself, mainly in the Cyprus...

Weekly cycle of meteorological variations in Melbourne and the role of pollution and anthropogenic heat release

An aspect of anthropogenic impacts on climate have been assessed by examining the day-of-the-week variation (DOWV) of important meteorological elements. The data used were those of daily maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall for Melbourne for the period 1856–1990. This long series has been broken up into five 27-yr subperiods to expose how any such variation has changed over the record. We find there to be no DOWV in the summer “half” of the year for any of the subperiods. The only statistically significant variations to have physical meaning occur in the winter of the most recent subperiod (1964–1990). In that time maximum temperature exhibits a significant (10% confidence level) DOWV and weekdays are 0.29°C warmer than weekends (5%). Minimum temperatures and rainfall amounts were also found to be greater (10% level) on weekdays by 0.24°C and 0.20 mm d−1, respectively. We have considered the possible impacts of day-of-the-week variation of atmospheric pollution loading and of the local generation of heat. We hypothesise that the magnitude of the contrast between weekday-weekend anthropogenic heat emissions is sufficient to explain the temperature differences and these in turn are consistent with the weekday excess of rainfall. This perspective is concordant with the results of many recent studies which stress the importance of anthropogenic heating.

Evidence for decadal variability in southern Australian rainfall and relationships with regional pressure and sea surface temperature

A study of decadal variability in winter rainfall over various areas in southern Australia and possible links with regional mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) is presented. Newly released historical data sets (GISST 3 and GMSLP 2.1f) are used for this purpose. Emphasis is placed upon southwest Western Australia (SW WA), since this region has apparently experienced a significant winter rainfall decline since the mid-1960s. Cross-spectral, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation techniques are used to show that there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between regional MSLP and SW WA rainfall on a time scale of 8–9 years. EOF analysis of winter averaged MSLP revealed a mode prominent between Australia and New Zealand and extending into the high southern latitudes, which explained 19.5% of the variance. This pattern appears to reflect a strengthening of the sub-tropical high pressure belt and a shift of the Circumpolar Trough and was found to be significantly correlated with SW WA winter rainfall. Based on the premise that the MSLP–rainfall relationship involves changes to the strength and track of the mid-latitude depressions and associated frontal systems that provide the bulk of SW WA winter rainfall, an investigation into coastal regions downstream (Tasmania and coastal South Australia (SA)) was also performed. This also showed a significant relationship between rainfall and regional MSLP on time scales of about 8–9 years. Links between rainfall in these regions and Indo-Pacific Ocean SST were also investigated but found to be less prominent than those for MSLP. This finding is consistent with previous work and possibly reflects the mid-latitude location of the regions considered and the likelihood that winter depressions are more sensitive to the large scale atmospheric circulation than they are to the underlying SST field. Copyright