Kevin S. McCann

The diversity–stability debate

There exists little doubt that the Earths biodiversity is declining. The Nature Conservancy, for example, has documented that one-third of the plant and animal species in the United States are now at risk of extinction. The problem is a monumental one, and forces us to consider in depth how we expect ecosystems, which ultimately are our life-support systems, to respond to reductions in diversity. This issue — commonly referred to as the diversity–stability debate — is the subject of this review, which synthesizes historical ideas with recent advances. Both theory and empirical evidence agree that we should expect declines in diversity to accelerate the simplification of ecological communities.

Structural asymmetry and the stability of diverse food webs.

Untangling the influence of human activities on food-web stability and persistence is complex given the large numbers of species and overwhelming number of interactions within ecosystems. Although biodiversity has been associated with stability, the actual structures and processes that confer stability to diverse food webs remain largely unknown. Here we show that real food webs are structured such that top predators act as couplers of distinct energy channels that differ in both productivity and turnover rate. Our theoretical analysis shows that coupled fast and slow channels convey both local and non-local stability to food webs. Alarmingly, the same human actions that have been implicated in the loss of biodiversity also directly erode the very structures and processes that we show to confer stability on food webs.

The dynamics of spatially coupled food webs

The dynamics of ecological systems include a bewildering number of biotic interactions that unfold over a vast range of spatial scales. Here, employing simple and general empirical arguments concerning the nature of movement, trophic position and behaviour we outline a general theory concerning the role of space and food web structure on food web stability. We argue that consumers link food webs in space and that this spatial structure combined with relatively rapid behavioural responses by consumers can strongly influence the dynamics of food webs. Employing simple spatially implicit food web models, we show that large mobile consumers are inordinately important in determining the stability, or lack of it, in ecosystems. More specifically, this theory suggests that mobile higher order organisms are potent stabilizers when embedded in a variable, and expansive spatial structure. However, when space is compressed and higher order consumers strongly couple local habitats then mobile consumers can have an inordinate destabilizing effect. Preliminary empirical arguments show consistency with this general theory.

Re-evaluating the omnivory–stability relationship in food webs

Under equilibrium conditions, previous theory has shown that the presence of omnivory destabilizes food webs. Correspondingly, omnivory ought to be rare in real food webs. Although, early food web data appeared to verify this, recently many ecologists have found omnivory to be ubiquitous in food web data gathered at a high taxonomic resolution. In this paper, we re–investigate the role of omnivory in food webs using a non–equilibrium perspective. We find that the addition of omnivory to a simple food chain model (thus a simple food web) locally stabilizes the food web in a very complete way. First, non–equilibrium dynamics (e.g. chaos) tend to be eliminated or bounded further away from zero via period–doubling reversals invoked by the omnivorous trophic link. Second, food chains without interior attractors tend to gain a stable interior attractor with moderate amounts of omnivory.

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming.

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050–2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.

Food Web Stability: The Influence of Trophic Flows across Habitats

In nature, fluxes across habitats often bring both nutrient and energetic resources into areas of low productivity from areas of higher productivity. These inputs can alter consumption rates of consumer and predator species in the recipient food webs, thereby influencing food web stability. Starting from a well‐studied tritrophic food chain model, we investigated the impact of allochthonous inputs on the stability of a simple food web model. We considered the effects of allochthonous inputs on stability of the model using four sets of biologically plausible parameters that represent different dynamical outcomes. We found that low levels of allochthonous inputs stabilize food web dynamics when species preferentially feed on the autochthonous sources, while either increasing the input level or changing the feeding preference to favor allochthonous inputs, or both, led to a decoupling of the food chain that could result in the loss of one or all species. We argue that allochthonous inputs are important sources of productivity in many food webs and their influence needs to be studied further. This is especially important in the various systems, such as caves, headwater streams, and some small marine islands, in which more energy enters the food web from allochthonous inputs than from autochthonous inputs.

Integrating food web diversity, structure and stability

Given the unprecedented rate of species extinctions facing the planet, understanding the causes and consequences of species diversity in ecosystems is of paramount importance. Ecologists have investigated both the influence of environmental variables on species diversity and the influence of species diversity on ecosystem function and stability. These investigations have largely been carried out without taking into account the overarching stabilizing structures of food webs that arise from evolutionary and successional processes and that are maintained through species interactions. Here, we argue that the same large-scale structures that have been purported to convey stability to food webs can also help to understand both the distribution of species diversity in nature and the relationship between species diversity and food web stability. Specifically, the allocation of species diversity to slow energy channels within food webs results in the skewed distribution of interactions strengths that has been shown to confer stability to complex food webs. We end by discussing the processes that might generate and maintain the structured, stable and diverse food webs observed in nature.

A Mechanistic Approach for Modeling Temperature‐Dependent Consumer‐Resource Dynamics

Paramount to our ability to manage and protect biological communities from impending changes in the environment is an understanding of how communities will respond. General mathematical models of community dynamics are often too simplistic to accurately describe this response, partly to retain mathematical tractability and partly for the lack of biologically pleasing functions representing the model/environment interface. We address these problems of tractability and plausibility in community/environment models by incorporating the Boltzmann factor (temperature dependence) in a bioenergetic consumer‐resource framework. Our analysis leads to three predictions for the response of consumer‐resource systems to increasing mean temperature (warming). First, mathematical extinctions do not occur with warming; however, stable systems may transition into an unstable (cycling) state. Second, there is a decrease in the biomass density of resources with warming. The biomass density of consumers may increase or decrease depending on their proximity to the feasibility (extinction) boundary. Third, consumer biomass density is more sensitive to warming than resource biomass density (with some exceptions). These predictions are in line with many current observations and experiments. The model presented and analyzed here provides an advancement in the testing framework for global change scenarios and hypotheses of latitudinal and elevational species distributions.

A landscape theory for food web architecture.

Ecologists have long searched for structures and processes that impart stability in nature. In particular, food web ecology has held promise in tackling this issue. Empirical patterns in food webs have consistently shown that the distributions of species and interactions in nature are more likely to be stable than randomly constructed systems with the same number of species and interactions. Food web ecology still faces two fundamental challenges, however. First, the quantity and quality of food web data required to document both the species richness and the interaction strengths among all species within food webs is largely prohibitive. Second, where food webs have been well documented, spatial and temporal variation in food web structure has been ignored. Conversely, research that has addressed spatial and temporal variation in ecosystems has generally ignored the full complexity of food web architecture. Here, we incorporate empirical patterns, largely from macroecology and behavioural ecology, into a spatially implicit food web structure to construct a simple landscape theory of food web architecture. Such an approach both captures important architectural features of food webs and allows for an exploration of food web structure across a range of spatial scales. Finally, we demonstrated that food webs are hierarchically organized along the spatial and temporal niche axes of species and their utilization of food resources in ways that stabilize ecosystems.

Fluctuations in density of an outbreak species drive diversity cascades in food webs

Patterns in food-web structure have frequently been examined in static food webs, but few studies have attempted to delineate patterns that materialize in food webs under nonequilibrium conditions. Here, using one of natures classical nonequilibrium systems as the food-web database, we test the major assumptions of recent advances in food-web theory. We show that a complex web of interactions between insect herbivores and their natural enemies displays significant architectural flexibility over a large fluctuation in the natural abundance of the major herbivore, the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana). Importantly, this flexibility operates precisely in the manner predicted by recent foraging-based food-web theories: higher-order mobile generalists respond rapidly in time and space by converging on areas of increasing prey abundance. This “birdfeeder effect” operates such that increasing budworm densities correspond to a cascade of increasing diversity and food-web complexity. Thus, by integrating foraging theory with food-web ecology and analyzing a long-term, natural data set coupled with manipulative field experiments, we are able to show that food-web structure varies in a predictable manner. Furthermore, both recent food-web theory and longstanding foraging theory suggest that this very same food-web flexibility ought to be a potent stabilizing mechanism. Interestingly, we find that this food-web flexibility tends to be greater in heterogeneous than in homogeneous forest plots. Because our results provide a plausible mechanism for boreal forest effects on populations of forest insect pests, they have implications for forest and pest management practices.