Kevin X. Li

Bayesian network with quantitative input for maritime risk analysis

This article presents an innovative approach towards integrating logistic regression and Bayesian networks (BNs) into maritime risk assessment. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but has the potential for being adapted to other industries. Various applications of BNs as a modelling tool in maritime risk analysis have been widely seen in relevant literature. However, a common criticism of the Bayesian approach is that it requires too much information in the form of prior probabilities, and that such information is often difficult, if not impossible, to obtain in risk assessment. The traditional and common way to estimate prior probability of an accident is to use expert estimation (inputs) as a measure of uncertainty in risk analysis. In order to address the inherited problems associated with subjective probability (expert estimation), this study develops a binary logistic regression method of providing input for a BN, making use of different maritime accident data resources. Relevant risk assessment results have been achieved by measuring the safety levels of different types of vessels in different situations.

Maritime safety analysis in retrospect

Maritime safety has undergone considerable change in the past decades, particularly inits improved approach to risk quantification analysis. This article reviews the challenges of maritime safety analysis and the different approaches used to quantify the risks in maritime transportation. Formal safety assessment (FSA) is examined with a focus on its deficiencies, and its recent developments are described at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) level. The possible applications of FSA in maritime security and piracy analysis are discussed given its growing impacts on safety at sea. Some new uncertainty and risk modelling techniques are also presented to demonstrate how risk quantification analysis facilitates the transformation of maritime safety culture from a reactive prescriptive scheme towards a proactive goal-setting regime.

Themes and tools of maritime transport research during 2000-2014

ABSTRACT This study examines how maritime transport has been researched through a comprehensive review of papers published in 19 transportation journals over the period 2000–2014. Systematic investigation shows that Maritime Policy & Management plays a prominent role in publishing maritime transport research. At the same time, ‘shipping’ is a dominant research area, with ‘port management, service, performance, efficiency and competitiveness’; ‘shipping market, industry, freight rate and economic impact’; and ‘terminal studies’ as the most popular topics. Nevertheless, few efforts have investigated ‘shipping finance’; ‘shipping service’; or ‘port risk and security.’ Since 2000, the use of quantitative analysis techniques has steadily increased in maritime transport to help participants make decisions scientifically. We here present the major data analysis techniques and highlight some limitations regarding their application. Thus, we provide a better understanding of how maritime transport research has been undertaken in a quantitative manner.

Who mans the world fleet? A follow-up to the BIMCO/ ISF manpower survey

This article uncovers that the BIMCO/ISF manpower survey, both in its data collection and methodology, could be improved upon. It suggests that there is no lack of seafarers in number, but in quality. The major potential supply/demand countries are identified. China has not only the potential to become, it has actually become, a top manpower supplier. Some traditional maritime nations, with the decreasing demands of their national fleets, have become labour supply country, which could contribute in excess of 44000 seafarers to foreign ships. There is a need and opportunity for co-operation on maritime training between suppliers and demanders.

Slow steaming of liner trade: its economic and environmental impacts

From 2000s, there have been three forces provoking slow steaming practice in the liner industry: (1) oversupply of shipping capacity, (2) increase of bunker price and (3) environmental pressure. This paper analyses the background and the recent application of slow steaming in liner shipping. The research looks into the questions of how slow steaming can save bunker consumption and bring benefits to the environment. On the other hand, solutions are also examined to the adverse side of slow steaming practice, i.e., how it affects the container transit time. For which, a cost model is developed to demonstrate the impact of slow steaming on the revenue change, with application to the North Europe—Far East Trade as a case study. The final result shows that the optimal speed for the shipowner is correlated with the designed speed, bunker price and the price of CO2. With the increase of the bunker price and the price of CO2, the optimal speed will also increase, which means that slow steaming practice has a positive impact on the environmental protection.

Enforcement of law by the Port State Control (PSC)

Since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced the Port State Control (PSC) programme in 1982, it has been playing a vital role in the enforcement of safety law at sea worldwide. This paper addresses the effectiveness of PSC and the effectiveness of the methods for selecting ships to be inspected adopted by regional PSC. Data on ship total loss (from 1973–2003) and on the PSC records (from 1994–2005) have been collected. The study reveals that the enforcement of PSC is effective in improving the safety level of maritime transport. The methods adopted by regional PSC are compared on their effectiveness, efficiency and stability in identifying substandard ships. Suggestions are made on the improvement of the enforcement of PSC.

Container port systems in China and the USA: a comparative study

This study compares the evolution of container port systems in China and the USA in terms of port throughput, number of container ports and the concentration level in the container port system, based on the time-series data on these three features over the period 1979–2009 for China and 1970–2009 for the USA. The results show that the densities of container ports in the two countries are similar, and their evolutionary processes are alike, which has led to a comparable market structure in the port industries of the two countries. In addition, the disparities between container ports closely represent the unevenness in the regional economic development. We further compare the port management regimes of the two countries in terms of the administrative processes for port development and expansion, the ownership structure and the providers of port functions, which offer some explanation on the dynamics of port evolution in the two countries. In conclusion, it can be seen that the evolution of the container port system and the management regime in the USA can be a de facto reference for the future development of the Chinese container port system.

MARITIME LEGISLATION: NEW AREAS FOR SAFETY OF LIFE AT SEA

This study reveals areas where IMO regulations of safety of life at sea can be improved upon. After examination of 5389 mortality and 3559 accident cases of UK seamen and 6878 fatalities of worldwide seamen, it finds fatalities due to personal accidents on board ship constitute ∼90% of all mortality cases. Therefore, prevention of personal accidents should be given a higher priority. It reveals also that accidents involving coastal (domestic) ferries were another concern in the safety of life in shipping, e.g. in 1996 alone more than 2562 fatalities occurred in this sector. As a case study, the nationalities of 364 deceased seamen in bulk carrier disasters (1990–1998) are identified. Fatalities to British and worldwide seamen are based on the data obtained from various sources. However, fatalities to seamen working on board open registry ships are the best estimation, based on the information available to the authors.

The safety and quality of open registers and a new approach for classifying risky ships

By examining 20 years data, the paper attempts to outline the safety and quality records of open registers, and to establish a relationship of accidental total loss rate with ship quality factors, e.g., certificate, crew performance and equipment indicated by detention rates. It confirms that loss rate, detention rate and age of ships are highly correlated with each other. It shows that the loss rates and detention rates of open registers are above the world average, but with the exception of Liberia, Marshall Islands and Barbados. A new approach is suggested for assessment of ships safety score.

Evolution and research trends of container shipping

The shipping industry was transformed by the expansion of international trade and technological innovation, notably containerization, since the 1960s. Accordingly, this was followed by a significant increase in research addressing different aspects of container shipping. Despite such availability, important questions have remained unanswered: what are the major contributions that the research community has made to the container shipping industry, global and regional economies? Have their contributions been skewed towards particular themes, directions, and geographical areas? What can the shipping research community learn from the evolution and trends of container shipping research so that they can continue to contribute to the well-being of the global and regional economies? To address these questions, the paper undertakes a critical review and analysis on the evolution and trends of research in container shipping in the past four decades, based on a collection of 282 papers investigating different topics in container shipping featuring in major scholarly journals between 1967 and 2012. The study enables the shipping research community to enhance self-understandings and identifies major gaps for further research.